The latest RONI (Relative Oceanic Niño Index) value from May-Jun-Jul is +1.00°C, just barely into "moderate" #ElNiño territory... and rapidly on its way up. The previously-used metric, ONI, is at +1.39°C. RONI: bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/roni/ ONI: bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/oni/

This year has been one for the books so far with record-shattering heat across much of the western U.S. This map shows the temperature rankings (all of the maroon 1s are record hot, red 2s are second hottest, etc). From Texas to Montana and California to Arkansas. 🥵🥵

A new *monthly* record high water level was just set in Virginia Key (Miami) in July. It's actually the second monthly record high set this year... it also happened in May! bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/vk/

While you were over here trying to figure out how you were going to cover the rent and food—this guy was over there using $5.1 million in taxpayer money YOU paid into the system to cover these statues in 23 karat gold. Yeah, he did that.

Happy #MartiniFriday! That's a portion of our ⅓-acre vineyard in the backyard, about one month from picking.

#Miami just set a new record high heat index for July 31. At 4pm, it reached 108°F, breaking the previous record of 107°, set in 2023. Also, it's the 4th day so far this year that met the "heat advisory" criteria of a 105°+ heat index for 2+ hours. In 2023, there were 24 such days by this date.

PSA: There is no such thing as a "Super El Niño". There's weak, moderate, strong, and very strong. We are almost certainly headed into a very strong El Niño by this Fall, but it's just getting started. (tidbit: the phase of ENSO is not determined using daily or weekly values)

The first third of hurricane season is behind us in terms of time, but in terms of historical activity, only the first 8% is behind us! On average, HALF of the season's activity occurs in just one month, from late August through late September.

I guess I keep a lot of files around. Here's a satellite image from 27 years ago today.

As of today (July 27), #Miami has tied the record longest streak of days with a 101°F+ heat index: 29 days. The only previous time this happened was in 2023.

It's only July 24 and #Miami has already spent more time above a 100°F heat index than in any entire year prior to 1995. The half-way hump of heat index season is the second week of August, so there's a looooong way to go. 🥵

The first two months of the Atlantic hurricane season are just about over, and here's the map of activity so far. There will likely not be any new activity for the remainder of July.

18 years ago today: Hurricane Dolly (2008) exhibited bizarre and dramatic inner-core structural variability during a 6-hour rapid intensification and deepening event just prior to making landfall in southern Texas at 1800 UTC 23 July. Related publication: journals.ametsoc.org/.../140/12/m...

#Bertha has made its second and final landfall on the TX/LA border on Thursday afternoon and will quickly decay. Here's a preliminary look at the track and intensity verification stats for NHC and various models: [1/2]

#Bertha 2026 makes landfall in eastern #Louisiana. One of the least impactful tropical storm landfalls that I can remember... barely any rain or wind on land, and minimal storm surge.

#Albuquerque radar loop fans: I updated the beam elevation and beam blockage map to include partial beam blockage (beginning with 50% in the lightest gray shadows). Available at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/radar/kabx/ under the radar loop.

I began my blog on tropical Atlantic activity in 1996. In addition, I still have a whole binder just for the 1996 hurricane season, full of newspaper clippings and printed satellite images. Here's a selection from Bertha '96 (taken from the @readingeagle.com, three decades ago).

We're in the thick of #monsoon season in #Albuquerque... the peak dewpoint so far today is 61°F, and it has not dropped below 50° since 5pm on Monday (only for an hour). This chart shows the climatology of 50° dewpoints expressed in terms of the number of hours per day that threshold is exceeded.

#Bertha is still a name from the original set of rotating lists... first used in 1984 and every six years since. So this is its 8th time in use and will be certainly be around for a 9th time in 2032. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/07/bert...

Bertha bringing unsettled weather to northern Gulf coast

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Trump is Trump—a vain man-child who rarely thinks more than an hour or so ahead. At any given moment, he’ll do what he thinks he needs to do to get out of whatever immediate jam he’s put himself in. trib.al/poB7wBy

The ocean heat content averaged over the Gulf of Mexico is at a record low for the date.

Today is the 5th consecutive day with record-breaking high tides (for the dates) in #Miami, and the records are being broken by a hefty 0.3-0.5-foot margin. Fortunately, water levels are climatologically at a pretty low point of the year now... King Tide season will ramp up in about a month. 🌊

Now tagged as Invest #91L, this disturbance is likely to become Tropical Depression 2 soon, or perhaps Tropical Storm #Bertha. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/07/watc...

Watching northern Gulf of Mexico for tropical development

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Finally... napkins that work with the Summerscape! 🌼🐝🐞☀️

#Albuquerque had its most humid day of the year so far with 22 hours of a 50°F+ dewpoint on Friday. It's definitely #monsoon season! bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/abq/

Today (July 16) was only the second day so far this year that Miami met the heat advisory criteria of a 105°F+ heat index for 2+ hours. The other day was a full month ago, June 16.

#Miami has only had 1 day so far this year that met the heat advisory criteria (heat index of 105°F+ for 2+ hours). But through July 12, this year is in 3rd place for time spent above a 90° heat index, 2nd place for time spent above 95°, and 3rd place for time spent above 100°.

Typhoon #Bavi eyewall coming into radar range from #Taiwan... latest loop at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

The July update of the NMME ensemble shows a peak ensemble mean value of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of +2.62°C this winter. That would be a new record-strong #ElNiño... the previous strongest was +2.42°C, in the winter of 1982-83.

The sea surface temperature averaged over the Gulf of Mexico is a record high for the date, and warmer than it normally would be even at the peak in mid-August.