Andy Bruce (Reuters)

@bruceandy.bsky.social

Reuters Journalist of the Year 2025: 'Scoop of the Year' UK economy and north of England correspondent. ☀️ Stockport ☀️ 💬 Signal: bruce.369

Pro tip: engage with local press. Takes 2 mins and it: • shows you care about a local issue • signifies that whatever town you're visiting isn't just the next input into the rolling PR machine (even if it is) • prevents being called out like this 👇 www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-n...

Derbyshire Live denied chance to ask new PM Andy Burnham questions during visit

Mr Burnham visited rail manufacturer Alstom to launch a new education policy

derbytelegraph.co.uk

We should be better at saying how great Britain is at building great businesses Biggest venture capital market in Europe, the world’s third largest We have research institutions + entrepreneurial talent + a global financial centre Sentiment influences outcomes. Let’s be more positive!

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Pros and cons of the Burnham VAT cut. Pro 1) early indication he "gets" squeeze households feel 2) may offset next price cap lift 3) only on electricity so at margin good for rebalancing gas/electricity ratio as needed to promote wider electrification 4) temporary 5) cuts inflation in 2026

Resolution Foundation puts fiscal headroom at around £10 billion. Lowest estimate I've seen recently. Others in recent weeks: • Bank of America: £19b • JP Morgan: £15b • EY ITEM Club: £17.1b • Berenberg: £13b (damn the media for focusing on it! 😉👇)

Andy Bruce (Reuters)@bruceandy.bsky.social · 3w ago

Incoming OBR boss Haskel blames the media for having a fixation on fiscal headroom. Maybe he can explain why gilts would often react sharply to news around borrowing/headroom, or government's decision to adopt a fiscal rule where that is the only pass/fail metric? Is that the media too?

I worry that fuzzy language around this kind of thing is risky. Allows some people to run away with the most extreme interpretation of your intent (see "in hock" comments). Or some investors might think it's worth a punt on that and market shifts a bit (eg yesterday). And then a narrative builds.

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For instance, why are we trying to build manufacturing capacity if we aren’t pushing for trade liberalisation? And not surface deep trade deals but thoroughgoing arrangements that further embed our intermediate goods into global supply chains. Tariff reductions from already low levels don’t do this.

So the macro policy choices shouldn’t be framed as services or manufacturing; nationalisation or privatisation; but, rather, the axis are integration or autarky. Policies that shift us towards deeper global trade integration make us richer; those that cut the other way require stark rebalancing.