“Please do not leave this room thinking that the Bank of England is edging towards a hike” - Governor Andrew Bailey pushes back against rate hike bets after balance shifts on MPC www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Bank of England policymakers keep rates on hold but more back hike

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold as expected on Thursday, but a third policymaker backed a rate hike due to renewed conflict between the United States and Iran.

reuters.com

End of term at the Bank of England: the last rate decision and press conference by Andrew Bailey before the summer break Economists see a repeat of June’s 7-2 vote to keep rates on hold as U.S.-Iran conflict drags on www.reuters.com/business/ban...

Bank of England to keep rates steady while oil prices gyrate

The Bank of ​England looks set to keep interest rates steady on Thursday as it weighs the impact of the on-again, off-again Iran war that has ‌closed the Strait of Hormuz for the past five months and ...

reuters.com

Interesting speech from BoE's Catherine Mann. She sees risk that rate hikes could spark more volatility in gilts because of the shift in ownership towards hedge funds, overseas investors. That risks tightening fin. conditions by more than BoE intends www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2026/...

Old exposures, new actors: implications for monetary policy of the UK’s external imbalances − speech by Catherine L. Mann

Given at the London School of Economics and Political Science

bankofengland.co.uk

Gilt market not thrilled at the prospect of Wes Streeting quitting (according to latest Times report) Gilt futures dropped about 25-30 ticks on the news (≈ a 0.03 percentage point rise in yields), erasing earlier gains from when some of the heat appeared to be coming off Starmer.

Ten-year gilt yields are finishing the day at their highest since 2008 at just over 5.1% (and 30 years - where the UK no longer issues much debt - topped 5.8%, their highest since 1998, earlier today). A nice chart from my colleague Dhara Ranasinghe illustrating the climb...

Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli has a piece today on dynamic/personalised price-setting by businesses. Two takeaways 1/ on average, it doesn't appear to raise prices 2/ but the greater *variance* of prices means people think prices are higher, boosting inflation expectations

This time it's personal: the rise of dynamic, personalised pricing and what it means for inflation

How personalised pricing is influencing inflation and shaping the future of price-setting for everyone.

bankofengland.co.uk

The updated version of interview with BoE's Andrew Bailey is now out. Top lines: - Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate hike bets - BoE will act if needed - but keep in mind need to minimise hit to wider economy - Businesses say they have little pricing power (unlike 2022)

David Milliken@davidmilliken.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Reuters had the pleasure of a chat with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey this morning. A month into the Iran conflict, he still thinks markets have got ahead of themselves in betting heavily on rate hikes. Initial take here - more to follow soon. www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...

Reuters had the pleasure of a chat with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey this morning. A month into the Iran conflict, he still thinks markets have got ahead of themselves in betting heavily on rate hikes. Initial take here - more to follow soon. www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...

Exclusive: Bank of England's Bailey says markets still ahead of themselves in pricing rate hikes

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday that markets were still getting ahead of themselves by pricing in ​interest rate hikes by the central bank in response to the ‌hit to the Briti...

reuters.com

Interesting comments from Asda boss Allan Leighton on temporary fuel shortages as people try to fill up before petrol and diesel prices rise further.... www.reuters.com/world/uk/bri...

Britain's Asda hit by motor fuel shortages as Iran war spurs demand

British supermarket Asda is experiencing temporary fuel shortages at some of its forecourts after a surge in ​demand driven by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, its boss ‌said on Friday.

reuters.com

A few data points for this morning - UK flash PMI shows weakest growth in 6 months in March - CBI retail sales shows biggest y/y fall in volumes since April 2020 - UK sells 10-year bond with highest yield since 2008 - Markets much calmer than yesterday More here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

UK businesses show growth and inflation hit from Iran war

British business activity ​has grown at the slowest pace in six months and manufacturers' input costs accelerated at the fastest rate since 1992, according to a ‌survey that underscores the risks to t...

reuters.com

Another pretty mad day on the gilt market - with the biggest intra-day swing in over 3 years for two-year gilts after Trump's comments on Iran. Ten-year gilt yields also hit their highest since 2008. Hopefully this chart of two-year yields gives a sense of how unusual the past few days have been.

Two-year gilt yields are now up over 30 bps on the day. I hate to say it but that is truly a move of mini-budget proportions, if it persists - although a big difference is that the market seems to be functioning a lot better, so it's not the same in that regard.

Andy Bruce (Reuters)@bruceandy.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Gilts getting absolutely rinsed at market open. 😔 5-year yield is up 23 basis points on the day, hitting a 1-year high.

Random thoughts on Gorton & Denton: 1. Found this genuinely hard to call. Being familiar with the area wasn't a huge help - probably the first election I've covered where I didn't get a very strong steer in any direction.

The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest in @FT www.ft.com/content/fa99...

The Bank of England does not need to ‘follow the Fed’

The decisions of the US central bank can have a mixed impact on the domestic UK economy

ft.com

Today @reuters.com published this piece of mine on rising youth unemployment. I'd (obviously) encourage you to read the full thing, but a few impressions I got in the mean time... www.reuters.com/business/wor...

Rising UK youth unemployment tests government over wage pledge

The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger work...

reuters.com

The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger workers. ✍️ @davidmilliken.bsky.social www.reuters.com/business/wor...

Rising UK youth unemployment tests government over wage pledge

The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger work...

reuters.com

Today's ONS data confirmed a bit of a pattern: since 2022, Q1 has always been the strongest quarter for GDP growth, Q2 the second strongest and Q3 and Q4 third or fourth. The ONS looked into this in September and didn't find a problem, but not all economists are convinced...

Gilts selling off a wee bit, possibly in light of this report that Manchester MP Andrew Gwynne is stepping down - potentially making way for Andy Burnham.

Investment in housing and utilities could reduce government waste and boost growth if combined with the kind of collaborative, long-term planning that has served Manchester's economy, @andyburnham.bsky.social told @reuters.com "That is the way to reassure markets." www.reuters.com/world/uk/sta...

Starter pack of those who frequently comment and campaign on Social Security policy ... If you're interested in social security policy, follow these accounts and, as ever, let me know any good omissions ... go.bsky.app/S8a5jDX

UK GDP grew more than expected in November, boosted by JLR rebound - www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

UK GDP grew more than expected in November, boosted by JLR rebound

Britain's economy grew more strongly than expected in November, boosted by the return to normal production at Jaguar Land Rover after a cyberattack which hit the carmaker and its suppliers.

reuters.com

The world's central bankers side with Jay Powell, in a joint statement just released:

So... I've created a starter pack of UK government organisations currently on Bluesky: go.bsky.app/JHsY1Wz (Currently includes all those listed under ministerial and non-ministerial departments here www.gov.uk/government/o... - let me know any I've missed, or got wrong)

Reuters' live page on what's going on in Venezuela www.reuters.com/world/us/liv... and main story pulling threads together www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Live: Trump says US has captured Venezuela's President Maduro

The United States has not made such a direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989 to depose Manuel Noriega.

reuters.com

UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1% VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500 Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year

Lots of food for thought here on what might be improved at the ONS on processes, staff skills/pay etc. (Though note it's for if you were starting from scratch - implementing parts of this transition e.g. on staff numbers doesn't look easy.)

Arthur Turrell@arthurturrell.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Very much agree with @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social; problems are deeper and structural (my personal view!) Won't surprise anyone that I've been thinking about this a lot—put together a hopeful & forward looking vision for what one could do with a blank slate here: aeturrell.com/blog/posts/f...

Stark results - though a bit unclear in the data what has triggered such a sharp downturn in orders (vague factors is site delays, fewer tender opportunities and clients unwilling to commit)

Reuters@reuters.com · 12mo ago

UK construction activity falls by most in five years, survey shows reut.rs/45l4NTd

Minimum wage remit for 2026 now published. As expected, it's mostly a rollover of last year's policy. 1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)

I've a graphics-focused piece on UK inflation trends out this morning ahead of Thursday's Bank of England decision - when the central bank looks set to cut interest rates to 4% from 4.25% despite inflation approaching double its 2% target. Brief summary to follow (or click now for the full story)

Reuters@reuters.com · last yr.

Bank of England faces inflation challenge as it prepares to cut rates reut.rs/45yG1QT

Next week the Bank of England will publish an annual assessment of its £100 billion a year QT programme. With gilt holdings down to £558 billion from £875 billion in 2022, markets expect QT to slow - and are increasingly looking for clarity on when it might stop. www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...

Bank of England poised to slow quantitative tightening after rise in yields

The Bank of England is expected to soon slow the pace at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile.

reuters.com