A less well-known fact about this hurricane is that it hit on Yom Kippur and on a Saturday, as Miami's still-nascent Jewish community was growing. Many left Yom Kippur services as conditions were worsening, and some persevered fasting through destructive conditions.

Brian McNoldy@bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 7d ago

Today is the centennial of The Great Miami Hurricane's landfall in Miami. Approximately 12 days after exiting the African coast, a large Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds slammed into southeast Florida around sunrise on September 18, 1926. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/miam...

AI’s ceiling may be far beyond what most people can comprehend. That doesn’t mean “most people are stupid”. It means “it is genuinely difficult to envision an end point to something which has no precedent”. Think of it like asking someone 150 years ago what technology in 2026 will look like.

There is finally a potential for a hurricane or strong tropical cyclone east of North America — but it’s in the Mediterranean. There’s been a growing signal among ensembles for a medicane, or subtropical/tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean, that may develop this week.

In addition to the new PolarWx tropical cyclone archive, I'm slowly starting to backfill satellite data for past storms (Melissa 2025 shown below) - plus with 4 new default colormaps to choose from: polarwx.com/tropical/#ar...

Hurricane Lowell remains right of track of the latest NHC forecast — even following adjustments of the forecast track to the east with each update. Landfall in Hawaii is *not* expected, but these trends have prompted a hurricane warning in western Hawaii for significant impacts.

Tomer Burg@burgwx.bsky.social · 3w ago

If it seems like the NHC forecast for Hurricane Lowell shifted closer to Hawaii, you're not imagining things - there has been a clear eastward shift over the last 2 days. Perhaps more concerningly, the NHC forecast is actually *west* of all models, which continue trending east.

If it seems like the NHC forecast for Hurricane Lowell shifted closer to Hawaii, you're not imagining things - there has been a clear eastward shift over the last 2 days. Perhaps more concerningly, the NHC forecast is actually *west* of all models, which continue trending east.

New addition to PolarWx - tropical cyclone archives Lots of features packed into the archives, including ACE climatology, viewing past NHC forecast & model & ensemble data for storms, filtering through all past storms, and more: polarwx.com/tropical/#ar...

New addition to the PolarWx tropical cyclone page - satellite data 🛰️ On top of basin-wide views, storms with GOES-18/19 data now have a storm-long satellite archive, which can be viewed alongside recon missions & compared with forecast tracks. Lowell: polarwx.com/tropical/#ep...

Another typhoon, another @windbornewx.bsky.social eye intercept — this time navigating a controllable high-altitude balloon into a rapidly intensifying typhoon and collecting 3 vertical profiles in its eye as it cleared out:

doing a little thing late at night, round 2

It’s going to be a long evening

There's a growing risk of flash flooding across the northern half of NJ into the NYC metro tomorrow. A shortwave trough provides broad forcing for ascent, while a strong quasi-stationary low-mid level frontal boundary sets up with associated moisture flux convergence.

In between catching up on sleep post-AMS Madison I’ve revisited some of the most insightful convos I had at the conference — one of them being how past a certain point, you learn more about professional development and navigating the field of meteorology than meteorology itself.

This may be a long loop, but so has been Typhoon Dolphin's existence. It's already generated >57 ACE units, placing it among the top 10 ACE-producing storms in West Pacific records, while undergoing multiple eyewall replacement cycles and significant structural changes:

If you’re still in Madison after the summit, the atmosphere saved its best act for the end

Someone along Lake Mendota must be getting a real nice sunset right now

Been tons of negative stories recently about weather balloons, but let's tell a positive tale today: WindBorne Systems completed an extremely cool mission to fly a balloon into typhoon Dolphin, and NOAA is working with the private sector to get this kind of data into its models. tinyurl.com/yc673875

WindBorne Systems successfully navigates a weather balloon into the eye of typhoon Dolphin

Demonstrates the promise of cutting edge atmospheric observational systems. In the current tropics, Dolphin remains the main game in town.

tinyurl.com

Important insight from Sarah Trojniak in the forecast testbed panel at AMS Madison — applicable not just to research<—>operations but to product design in general: “It’s insightful to see how people use the product vs. what the product was designed for”

AMS Madison venue spotted from the air

The AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is excited to host the Research Operations Nexus (RON) at the AMS Madison Summit! The RON bridges meteorological research and operational forecasting. It is a great opportunity to connect with peers!

Great time for the AMS Madison online program to be down as many of us head to Madison today (myself included) - luckily this resource exists for anyone that needs/wants to check the program (and in PDF format too!):

Manda@theweathermanda.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Codex created this in 30 minutes: github.com/theweatherma...

An add on to Tomer's plot here: some more data showing wind speed and direction as we ascended and descended in the eye with some pivotal points labeled.

Dr. Larissa@rissarwx.bsky.social · 2mo ago

A much more thought out animation with our full set of ascent and descents before the eye wall monster got us. We believe we may have gotten as low as 10m above the ocean surface on the final arrested descent.

Through extraordinary efforts, @windbornewx.bsky.social successfully navigated a controllable balloon above powerful Typhoon Dolphin, descended into its eye, then collected multiple vertical profiles as we circled inside its eye. A first of its kind type of hurricane data collection.

Final full descent sounding for this go around. Balloon is going back up and we'll keep doing that loop as long as Dolphin will let us.

Dr. Larissa@rissarwx.bsky.social · 2mo ago

So uh, we're doing a thing and it's very fucking cool

Sometimes you end up so insanely swamped and doing so many tasks simultaneously that you have to stop for a moment and marvel at the fact that you’re somehow still fully functioning (He says 2 days before flying for a week-long conference where he will have no rest)

ICYMI - the new PolarWx real time tropical cyclone website launched last night, and I just released an update with bug fixes & new features: - the "models" tab on default shows each model's most recent cycle - you can set "Lite viewer" as your default view polarwx.com/tropical

Tomer Burg@burgwx.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🚨 New PolarWx Site Launch 🚨 After a long time planning the next steps for PolarWx, phase 1 has rolled out this evening with a completely revamped real-time tropical cyclone monitor website. Check it out below or read the thread for more on what's new: polarwx.com/tropical/

🚨 New PolarWx Site Launch 🚨 After a long time planning the next steps for PolarWx, phase 1 has rolled out this evening with a completely revamped real-time tropical cyclone monitor website. Check it out below or read the thread for more on what's new: polarwx.com/tropical/

While not official yet until the next NHC intensity analysis later tonight, satellite trends clearly indicate Hurricane Genevieve is a category 5 hurricane in the East Pacific basin and still intensifying:

🚨PolarWx Update🚨 The website is now back up again. Over the next 1-2 weeks some model suites will be down for underlying restructuring. Due to ongoing tropics activity, disruptions to the real-time tropical cyclone page will be as minimal as possible. polarwx.com/tropical/

While I could just leave this up and laugh that Google AI missed a major game tomorrow, I’ll use this as an example to highlight the probabilistic nature of LLMs. As I’m in NYC, searching “game tomorrow” 100 times showed: - 53 times both FIFA & Yankees - 43 times only Yankees - 5 times only FIFA