New post: www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

Brand Burnham at 35% positive, 24% negative according to Britain Elects poll tracker britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...

Putting Brand Badenoch into perspective, staved the Tories from oblivion, but... www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Greater Manchester debrief britainelects.substack.com/p/mancman-ba...

Mancman Backs Burnham — who knew?

What you won't read elsewhere

britainelects.substack.com

Please show this to various people in politics and media, while filming their reactions www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Are the Greens taking Reform votes?

The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour

newstatesman.com

I'm late to it but @bwalker.uk spots something that makes sense, but is still fascinating: the Greens seem to be taking votes from Reform "Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"

Are the Greens taking Reform votes?

The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour

newstatesman.com

Hello geeks. Has anyone done any good work on the relationship and/or effect list MPs/elected reps have with the constituents, compared to say constituency reps?

Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk. 1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens. 2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s 3. Progressives were undecided til last minute www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

The rise of the undecided voter

Exclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided

newstatesman.com

Great idea, any and all activists who have recollections from the EUref counts should get involved

Rural Spatial Justice@ruralspatialj.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Help us build the most accurate map of Brexit. Ten years on Rural-Spatial-Justice is crowdsourcing 'boxcounts' from observers at the referendum count to go beneath the results & find out the local geography of Leave & Remain. Click below to find out more. open.substack.com/pub/ruralspa...

Wow! makes me think of Willie Rennie!!! (Cartoon from @neilslorance.com )

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 5mo ago

This remains a good, tongue in cheek guide, though the centre-right is doing worse across the board than it was then, while the Greens are taking the “Friendship is Magic” vote in addition to their traditional core.

Gorton and Denton by-election forecast. The three charts you need to know: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Yes, I know some tactical voting sites say otherwise. I refer you to the statement above. The polling is a toss up, maybe favouring the greens a tiny amount. Labour has the more established ground operation. It is too close to call.

Honestly: anyone telling you polling “clearly” shows you should vote either Green or Labour to stop Reform in Gorton & Denton probably has a vested interest in that party winning. It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.

Gorton and Denton prediction: parties just hundreds of votes apart 📊 @bwalker.uk

Gorton and Denton prediction: parties just hundreds of votes apart

New factors have put Zack Polanski's party neck-and-neck with Labour and Reform

newstatesman.com

I've previously been critical of some people on here for favouring the YouGov poll over poll-of-polls average - the argument for YouGov being that the average is distorted by Find Out Now. @bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.

New post: likely ward by ward breakdowns of Gorton and Denton if it voted today. It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?

Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

newstatesman.com

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton? Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder. 📊 @bwalker.uk

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?

Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

newstatesman.com

How do you forecast an election result more accurately than all the professional pollsters? I asked Ben Walker from @britainelects.com and he told me... it's all about using local election microdata. Fascinating stuff in this week's episode of the Talk Data to Me podcast!

@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens. This is particularly striking:

New best party on the economy poll: Con: 21% Ref: 14% Lab: 12% Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods. 8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons 17% of Con voters now prefer Ref YouGov d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...

Newark would vote Conservative in an election held today: Con: 37% (-2) Ref: 23% (+8) Lab: 21% (-12) Britain Predicts

Jenrick held greater sympathy among Reform voters (30%) than Tory (26%) YouGov, Oct 2025

Farage reacts

A run through of... everything electorally for the year ahead www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZPj...

Will Labour survive 2026? | UK Politics | The New Statesman

YouTube video by The New Statesman

youtube.com

Labour understands the public on immigration. But if Shabana Mahmood’s gamble fails, Reform will benefit. 📊 @bwalker.uk

Labour understands the public on immigration

But if Shabana Mahmood's gamble fails, Reform will benefit

newstatesman.com

Looking at the Danish local elections net change in seats... Net losers SocDems (centre-left): -156 Venstre (centre-right): -99 Conservatives (right): -61 Net winners Green Left (left): +80 DPP (far-right): +62 Liberal Alliance (right): +116 Denmark Democrats (far-right): +123 Hmm.

Guardian — Police and Crime Commissioner roles to be abolished

"The problem isn’t that we have a deliberately biased BBC, it’s that we have a BBC that has been consciously reduced in its scope and bullied into dumbing down and retreating." www.ft.com/content/676c...

A likely 75 per cent of votes have already been counted and Mamdani's on course to win with half the vote. If the figs stay then Silwa has undergone some extensive squeezing to Cuomo's benefit. But Mamdani has outperformed the polls too.

Most important issue to voting New Yorkers who've given the win to Mamdani: Cost of living: 56% Crime: 22% >> Immigration: 10% via AP Voter Poll / SSRS