Using ~8.5k election-poll-party observations from 372 elections in 32 countries, we find a persistent partisan asymmetry: polls tend to overestimate the left relative to the right. On average across elections, polls the month before an election overstated the left by about 1.4 points

There are 7 PR people for every journalist in the US. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Judging from the reaction to Farage's 'policy' announcement today from both Labour and the Tories, it may be that his capacity to do the below is waning. Not sure about Hanson, mind.

Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · 5d ago

Sorry but unless you, as a media outlet, have managed to get someone from the Navy (probably a former sailor because those currently serving maybe disbarred from commenting) to explain that this is extremely unlikely to happen for legal reasons, then, arguably, you haven't really done your job.

Great write-up here of some really encouraging news re: the growing consenus in favour of compulsory voting

Compulsory voting on the table as Burnham ponders electoral reform

Proposals seen by the prime minister’s advisers suggest a £10 fine for those who do not cast a ballot, with a ‘none of the above’ option to be included

thetimes.com

Some thoughts on Andy Burnham's government overhaul: the good (creating an Office of the PM), the bad (RIP DSIT), the mixed (not killing off the Cabinet Office) and the 'you gave Lisa Nandy a BIGGER job?'

The good, the bad and the mixed of Andy Burnham’s government overhaul

PM should have gone further in scrapping Cabinet Office, while handing Lisa Nandy an expanded brief is a gamble

ft.com

There's surely a non-zero chance that Reform become the Ship of Theseus Party. They end up with five or more MPs, none of whom are the five they got elected at the 2024 GE.

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · 2w ago

Reform are going to be fighting so many investigations they won’t have time to plan the new Reich.

When the story of why humanity didn't stop climate change is written, it will feature front pages like this. Even as the skies blacken with climate change-induced wildfires, right wing media continue their relentless crusade against measures to tackle it.

It's funny how no-one ever asks where the money is coming from when you announce a cut in immigration.

So the average British punter doesn’t have a penchant for a fruity Lost Mary’s, and isn’t interested in charity shop bargain hunting or Maccas double cheeseburgers. And loves going to the bank rather than using an app on their phone. I have never felt more out of touch.

I bet there’s been lots of reporting of this.

Jon Featonby@jonfeatonby.bsky.social · 3w ago

No arrivals by small boats for the last 10 days now. As of yesterday, 12,469 people had arrived so far this year across the Channel, down over 11,000 (47%) on the same time last year. More than 10% down on 2023 as well, which was when crossings were, by comparison to other years, lower.

'The party needs to become more comfortable with everyday liberalism... liberalism is not only a foundational part of Labour’s history, it’s also crucial for electoral signalling in the twenty-first century.' Spot on from @colmpm.bsky.social

LSE British Politics and Policy@lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social · 3w ago

Andy Burnham is about to become Prime Minister. But what can he actually do (differently)? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social has some suggestions. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

One day, somebody in government will notice what the net migration level is hesding to. The fiscal forecast (£24 billion) was based on average net 235k to 2026-29 but that is at least 100k too high, costing £13 billion, or double that if want to reduce immigration visas further.

Adam Bienkov@adambienkov.bsky.social · 3w ago

The Times reporting that Andy Burnham succeeded in persuading Shabana Mahmood to become Chancellor because it would give her more control over cutting immigration

With MPs set to vote tomorrow to control money in politcs, @guardianheather.bsky.social sums-up the case: "it is wrong in principle, and dangerous in practice, for a new class of mega-donors to bankroll British politics. Donations should be capped; and if Starmer does not act, his successor must."

UK must cap political donations to stop the rich buying influence | Heather Stewart

If Keir Starmer won’t act then his successor should – by restricting the power of a small group of mega-donors

theguardian.com

Count Binface alone can‘t clean up British politics. MPs now have that chance, and they must seize it | Stella Creasy www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Count Binface alone can‘t clean up British politics. MPs now have that chance, and they must seize it | Stella Creasy

Amid the allegations about dark money and funding, I have a solution: limit all single donations in a year – from any individual – to £100,000, says MP Stella Creasy

theguardian.com

To stop wealthy donors from influencing politics, Stella Creasy MP has proposed a vital amendment to the Representation of the People Bill to place a strict £100k cap on all individual donations. Use our quick tool to email your MP 👇 goodlaw.social/o0eb

A tide of huge donations has flooded into politics, as billionaires try to game the system in their favour. But Stella Creasy is proposing a groundbreaking £100,000 cap on political donations that could level the political playing field Tell your MP to back the cap 👇 https://goodlaw.social/c244d0

Our ten-year Brexit retrospective with James Hampshire, Alan Wager, David Cutts @robfordmancs.bsky.social Matthew Goodwin @robertsaunders.bsky.social Barry Colfer, Patrick Diamond @albertpweale.bsky.social Jonathan Sumption, Michael Keating and many more politicalquarterly.org.uk/collections/...

Brexit at Ten: A Retrospective

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, The Political Quarterly marks this significant anniversary with a virtual issue bringing together a selection of articles that have analysed the origins, impact ...

politicalquarterly.org.uk

The Monster Raving Loony Party must do the honourable thing and give Ct Binface a clear run vs Mr Farage. Electoral pact now!

Count Binface@countbinface.bsky.social · last mo.

On my way, Clacton.

EXC - The £5m gift to Nigel Farage by a cryptocurrency billionaire was reported to the National Crime Agency by bankers who were concerned it may have been laundered money, the Guardian can reveal. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Revealed: Farage’s £5m gift reported to UK crime agency over money laundering concerns

Exclusive: Latest Guardian revelation about gift from cryptocurrency tycoon comes as Reform UK leader forces byelection

theguardian.com

There is an irony here that many will read the changing polls and potential recovery as being about Burnham defeating Reform rather than Reform self-destructing at the same time as Labour voters returned from the Greens.

The Bear@bearlypolitics.co.uk · last mo.

Does anyone else have the feeling that Reform UK’s ascendancy suddenly feels less certain? Since the £5m bung revelation, I can’t help but feel that Nige and Co have been seriously on the back foot. Is that just me being overly optimistic, or has the sense of inevitability waned?

This is quite the story: a donation to the Green Party by its leader Zack Polanski was inadmissible because he was not on the electoral roll and was therefore deemed to be an ’unlawful donor’. www.ft.com/content/34ad... Green Party forced to return Zack Polanski’s unlawful donation

Green Party forced to return Zack Polanski’s unlawful donation

Impermissible gift is first of its kind by a UK party leader and comes after scrutiny of his living arrangements

ft.com

Leaving aside the political/personal/personnel drama, it should be absolutely clear to Burnham/his team that these proposals have disintegrated on contact with reality. Much better to ditch them or at least have another round of consultation on more realistic/sensible options.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · last mo.

The Times says Home Secretary plans to ssck an Immigration Minister Mike Tapp for publicly advocating one way to prevent tens of thousands of care workers losing legal status as current/next govt try to defuse the chaotic consequences of her unsettlement reforms www.thetimes.com/article/4eaa...

If I were in government I'd be scoping an announcement to have solar, batteries and air conditioning (heating and cooling) in every school and hospital by 2030

I am convinced that the original cause of 'the BBC's politics blogs are written in this stupid style' is that the BBC has internalised 'right for someone with a reading age of five' as 'write floridly, but for a moron'.

Katie Martin@katie0martin.ft.com · 2mo ago

"Westminster is a postcode whose currency is power – and power is shifting, quickly." ???

I've had 2 journalists today asking if Miliband as Chancellor would be a "Liz Truss moment" and find it difficult not to just respond "are you on crack?".

Michael@michaeljsc.bsky.social · 2mo ago

keep seeing reports that markets are jittery about a potential Miliband Treasury and it’s pure vibes right? he is a mainstream, experienced, capable politician who understands economics and they’re treating him like Green Liz Truss

Maybe the better way of putting it would have been ‘we need to get over this thing of being in hoc to bad faith, Guido mob lobby journalists at Bloomberg’

New research from me and @antonspisak.bsky.social – we identify how much Brexit has reduced goods and services trade with the EU, and what’s responsible: leaving the customs union or the single market? Answers: large hit to trade, mostly due to single market exit 🧵 www.cer.eu/insights/cos...

The cost of Brexit, ten years on: The impact of leaving the customs union and single market on UK trade

New CER modelling exercise shows that Brexit has substantially reduced the UK’s trade with the EU.

cer.eu

Good half, two weird Croatia goals not important. Suspect we’ll accelerate away in second.