Cross-posting: This is completely uncalled for. I think anyone who’s been an avid reader of Nick’s work would judge that he’s thoughtful and makes a point of presenting as many POVs of the Fed debate as possible.
Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com and Economic Weekly at https://economicweekly.substack.com/
ISM Services: “In July, the Services PMI® registered 54.1 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to June’s figure of 54 percent. ... The Employment Index returned to contraction territory after only one month in expansion with a reading of 47.4 percent" Slightly below consensus.
Single Family Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year Purchase Applications Down Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/single-fam...
Single Family Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year
Purchase Applications Down Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Goldman on July NFP: "We expect a 75k increase in payrolls in July and a 0.1pp rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%." Consensus is for 90K jobs and 4.2%.
Light vehicle sales at 16.3 million SAAR in July, down 1.5% YoY. At consensus
Job openings decreased from 7.537 million to 7.359 million. JOLTS: www.bls.gov/news.release... "The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today."
"the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in June, down $4.4 billion from $77.6 billion in May, revised. June exports were ... $2.9 billion less than May exports. June imports were ... $7.3 billion less than May imports." www.census.gov/foreign-trad... Close to consensus expectations
Foreign Trade Press Release Page
census.gov
Fed SLOOS on residential real estate: www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/s... "banks reported mixed changes in lending standards and weaker demand for residential real estate (RRE) loans on balance. Standards were unchanged and demand strengthened for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)."
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June; Up 2.1% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 18.0% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 16.4% calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June; Up 2.1% Year-over-year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 18.0% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 16.4%
calculatedrisk.substack.com
"Construction spending during June 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,166.5 billion, 0.1 percent (±0.8 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $2,168.5 billion." www.census.gov/construction... Below consensus for a 0.2% increase
Press Release
census.gov
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 55.6 percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). .. The Employment Index reading of 52.8 percent" www.ismworld.org/supply-manag... Above consensus of 54.0
Economic Weekly July 31, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
Economic Weekly July 31, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.
economicweekly.substack.com
Lawler: Update on the GSEs: Agency MBS Holdings Decline, Interest Rate Risk Measures Keep Rising calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
Lawler: Update on the GSEs: Agency MBS Holdings Decline, Interest Rate Risk Measures Keep Rising
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in June Freddie Mac Multi-Family Delinquencies at Highest Rate since Financial Crisis calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and...
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in June
Freddie Mac Multi-Family Delinquencies at Highest Rate since Financial Crisis
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Goldman: "We launched our Q3 GDP tracking estimate at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate at +1.9%."
How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2027? calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/how-much-w...
How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2027?
With house prices up low-single digits over the last year through mid-year, an interesting question is: How much will the Fannie & Freddie conforming loan limits (CLL) change for 2027?
calculatedrisk.substack.com
Most analysts expect the 2nd half of 2026 to be weaker than the 1st half since there was some boost due to tax cuts early in the year. 2.1% annual rate in Q1, and 1.5% in Q2 suggests annual growth below 2% for the year. That would be weakest year since 2020 (pandemic).
Bill McBride@calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6d ago"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026" Well below the consensus of 2.3%.
"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. [YoY] the PCE price index for June increased 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent [YoY]." At consensus.
"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026" Well below the consensus of 2.3%.
"In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 187,000 to 188,000." Below consensus.
Goldman: "Ahead of Thursday’s advance release of Q2 GDP growth, we are lowering our Q2 GDP growth forecast by 0.8pp to +1.8%, reflecting the incorporation of Tuesday’s trade and inventories data as well as the impact of recent drawdowns of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)."
The FOMC held rates steady, and the vote was 9-3. Three bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase. It was the first time since 2016 that there were three dissents in the same direction over a policy change.
In the absence of official forward guidance, unofficial forward guidance (like 3 dissents in favor of a hike) fills in some of the gap
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in Warsh’s second meeting as chairman. Three officials dissented, calling for a hike. Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07... #EconSky
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for t
federalreserve.gov
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.8% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 11.1% below 2022 peak calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.8% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 11.1% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com