Just received reviews from a rerevised paper I reresubmitted. Only 1 of 3 reviewers returned comments, which seem to be for ORIGINAL manuscript rather than revision 2, which included major changes to address reviewer concerns. I checked the online system and the correct version was resubmitted.

We have taken the ensemble version of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (#AIFS) into operations! It will run side by side with the traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Find out more here ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

Final published version of “Unbiased calculation, evaluation, and calibration of ensemble forecast anomalies” now available online in QJRMS: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... Original thread on the preprint from the other place: x.com/ClimatePrima...

Last Tuesday, I was set to give a talk on 'climate change in the Northeast' at a retirement home but had to cancel due to hourly job threats. After nearly two weeks of overwhelming uncertainty, today it happened. I was fired from my dream of working at NOAA. I'm so sorry to everyone also affected.

Sorry - meridional wind, not zonal.

Chris Roberts@cdroberts.bsky.social · 2y ago

And here is an example 10 day forecast of 850 hPa Zonal Wind from AIFS-CRPS provided by Simon Lang. This animation illustrates that probabilistic CRPS-based training does not suffer from smoothing and/or reduced variance for longer rollouts that is inherent to deterministic MSE-based training.

And here is an example 10 day forecast of 850 hPa Zonal Wind from AIFS-CRPS provided by Simon Lang. This animation illustrates that probabilistic CRPS-based training does not suffer from smoothing and/or reduced variance for longer rollouts that is inherent to deterministic MSE-based training.

Chris Roberts@cdroberts.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨New preprint🚨from @ecmwf.bsky.social introducing AIFS-CRPS, a new data-driven ensemble system for medium-range and subseasonal forecasting. arxiv.org/abs/2412.15832

🚨New preprint🚨from @ecmwf.bsky.social introducing AIFS-CRPS, a new data-driven ensemble system for medium-range and subseasonal forecasting. arxiv.org/abs/2412.15832

AIFS-CRPS: Ensemble forecasting using a model trained with a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estim...

arxiv.org

Our news highlights from 2024 include a major upgrade of the #IntegratedForecastingSystem; initiatives to drive forward weather science, including #MachineLearning; and news from the EU-funded services implemented by ECMWF. For details ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

New #AIFS blog: #MachineLearning (ML) for #weather and climate has continued to evolve at breathtaking pace. Matthew Chantry takes us on a tour of the year past and gives some previews of the year to come. ➡️ ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

The Predictability of Weather and Climate group at the Physics Department of the University of Oxford invites applications for an open-ended senior research position: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

Are you up for a challenge? We are now looking for our next Director General: jobs.ecmwf.int/Job/JobDetai...

Director-General:Reading, UK

jobs.ecmwf.int

Join us at #EGU25 to hear and discuss the latest advances in subseasonal-to-seasonal #S2S prediction and applications. Please submit your abstracts to AS1.7 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... by 15 January 2025 13:00 CET.

Chris Roberts@cdroberts.bsky.social · 2y ago

The #EGU25 call for abstracts is open! Join our session AS1.7 to discuss recent advances in #S2S prediction, including process understanding and applications. We look forward to your contribution!

The #EGU25 call for abstracts is open! Join our session AS1.7 to discuss recent advances in #S2S prediction, including process understanding and applications. We look forward to your contribution!

I will be at the CMStatistics conference in London from Saturday to Monday, let me know if you'd like to meet, e.g. to talk about the available postdoc position (bwsyncandshare.kit.edu/s/HXJrexofCa...)

A reminder that liking a post on bsky doesn't make it appear on your followers feed in the same way that it did on X. If you think your followers may be interested in a post, then please do re-post it don't just like it.

🚨 New preprint 🚨 - "Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in large-ensemble subseasonal forecasts" arxiv.org/html/2411.17...