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Centre for Economic Policy Research

@cepr.org

CEPR, established in 1983, is an independent, non‐partisan, pan‐European non‐profit organization. Its mission is to enhance the quality of policy decisions through providing policy‐relevant research, based soundly in economic theory.

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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · yesterday

☀️Whether you prefer books, podcasts, or video, CEPR's summer reading list has something for everyone. https://ow.ly/pf1K50ZtP81 #EconSky #AI #Globalisation #Geopolitics #ebook

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 5d ago

🏖️No matter your summer holiday destination, CEPR research can accompany you anywhere. Catch up on the top content of 2026 with our summer reading list. 📚https://ow.ly/3Lzh50ZtOMI #EconSky #AI #Globalisation #Geopolitics #ebook

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 5d ago

Congratulations to CEPR Research Fellow Anthony Venables on his appointment as President of the Royal Economic Society @resmedia.bsky.social for 2026–27

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · last wk.

One Extra Year: Alessandra Voena shares her experience balancing pregnancy, motherhood & tenure-track. "Childbirth, however, happens almost exclusively to women. It is challenging for all mothers, and dangerous for many." oneextrayear.substack.com/p/alessandra... #EconSky #WomenInEcon #WE_ARE_IN

Alessandra Voena

Stanford University

oneextrayear.substack.com

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · last wk.

⌛Final reminder! Submit your paper for the Conference on Balance Sheet Dimensions, Drivers and Implications of Capital Flows. #CallForPapers #EconSky #EconConf

Centre for Economic Policy Research@cepr.org · 2mo ago

📢 #CallForPapers: Conference on Balance Sheet Dimensions, Drivers and Implications of Capital Flows 🗓️ 6 October |📍 @nationalbanken.dk, Copenhagen Organisers: Renato Faccini & Giancarlo Corsetti 🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2026 🔗 cepr.org/events/balan... #EconSky #EconConf

Balance Sheet Dimensions, Drivers and Implications of Capital Flow

The conference will bring together academic and policy perspectives on capital flows, balance-sheet exposures, liquidity, and currency risk, while introducing a new Danish dataset on capital flows and balance sheets to support future research.
The conference will take place on 6 October 2026, at the Danmarks Nationalbank Copenhagen, Denmark, featuring invited academic and policy panels with Giancarlo Corsetti, Linda Goldberg, Harald Hau, Signe Krogstrup, Anna Seim, and Ida Wolden Bache.
The range of research topics includes (but is not limited to) balance-sheet exposures and capital-flow dynamics, geopolitical shocks, financial intermediaries, FX hedging, policy announcements, global portfolio allocation, asset prices, and funding risk.
Deadline: 31 July 2026
Organisers: Renato Faccini (Danmarks Nationalbank) and Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute and CEPR)

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last wk.

Y Berman & E Klor show that temporary tax holidays may generate substantial short-run revenues but also encourage taxpayers to postpone future distributions if they expect similar relief again. Policymakers should consider how policy shapes tomorrow's expectations. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure shows the top 1% income share in Israel. The top 1% share is total gross income of the top 1% divided by total reported income. The counterfactual adds back the dividend income estimated to have been retained because of the 2017 reform. The reform years 2011 and 2017 are excluded.

Governments increasingly look to capital income for both revenue and redistribution. This column compares two dividend tax reforms in Israel – a permanent rate increase and a temporary one-year cut – to examine how high-income taxpayers can adjust the timing and labelling of dividends in ways that undermine reform. Both produced immediate surges of more than 100% in reported dividends and tax revenue. But only the temporary reform left a lasting mark: payouts fell sharply once the relief expired, as firms retained earnings in anticipation of future cuts. Because undistributed profits are not recorded as personal income, the resulting rise in retained earnings also made top-income inequality appear to fall.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last wk.

Alina Șandor, Shaun Da Costa, & Argyrios K. Pisiotis assess dynamic poverty in the EU and find that poverty is more widespread and persistent than annual rates alone suggest and experiences vary sharply across countries. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure shows poverty trajectories across EU member states from 2019-2022. Stacked bars show the share of the total population in each poverty-trajectory category over the 2019–2022 period. ‘Chronic poverty’ refers to being poor in all four years; ‘almost always in poverty’ to three out of four years; ‘entering poverty’ to being poor only in the final two years; ‘exiting poverty’ to being poor only in the first two years; ‘in-and-out poverty’ to alternating between years in poverty and out of poverty; and ‘transient poverty’ to being poor in exactly one year. Poverty is defined using the standard 60% of national median equivalised disposable income threshold. Countries are ordered by the share of chronic poverty.

Poverty is not a static condition but a dynamic process. Yet the at-risk-of-poverty rate, which underpins EU poverty monitoring, captures who is poor in a given year but says nothing about how long people have been poor. This column introduces complementary measures to assess dynamic poverty in the EU, which suggest that poverty is more widespread and persistent than annual rates alone suggest and experiences vary sharply across countries. Social protection systems differ markedly in their ability to reduce long-duration poverty. These findings have direct relevance for the EU’s newly adopted Anti-Poverty Strategy.

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · last wk.

CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 26/07/2026 - https://ow.ly/s9gU50Zt5KH

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 4w ago

📢 #CallForPapers To honour the memory of Ghazala Azmat, the Economics Department of Sciences Po is launching a call for the Ghazala Azmat Award. Work by young scholars in economics of discrimination, gender, education & organizational economics welcome. Deadline: 31 August ow.ly/Skox50ZmiAL #EconSky

To honour the memory of Ghazala, the Department of Economics of Sciences Po is launching a call for the Ghazala Azmat Award.
Ghazala made important contributions in a large number of fields, spanning economics of discrimination, gender, education and organizational economics. The award will promote work in those fields by young scholars.
The second edition of this award will consist of a 2,000 euros prize. The prize will be awarded to a paper with authors consisting only of scholars with less than 8 years post-PhD. Papers written jointly with more senior researchers will not be considered. The paper will be presented at Sciences Po during the CEPR Paris Symposium 2026 (3-8 December 2026).
The selection of the laureate will be carried out by a scientific committee led by the Department of Economics at Sciences Po.
Deadline: 31 August 2026

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last wk.

Barry Eichengreen, Maxime Menuet, & Gregory Donnat argue that debt-service costs are key to understanding when fiscal adjustments become necessary, and that they provide a more direct measure of fiscal pressure than debt ratios alone. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The figure reports the evolution of the U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio (solid blue line) and debt-service costs as a share of GDP (dashed red line) over the period 1800–2023. Debt-service costs are scaled by a factor of 25 for visualization purposes. Gray shaded areas correspond to major wartime periods. The vertical dashed line marks the year 1913, often associated with the emergence of the modern U.S. fiscal and monetary regime. Blue shaded areas highlight the post-World War II adjustment, the Volcker disinflation, and the post-2008 period.

Debt sustainability analysis typically focuses on debt stocks and the interest rate-growth rate differential, but these are not perfect predictors of fiscal stress. This column argues that debt-service costs are key to understanding when fiscal adjustments become necessary. Using long-run historical evidence, it shows that primary surpluses are more closely associated with debt-service costs than with debt ratios, and that fiscal responses intensify when financing conditions deteriorate. Overall, debt-service costs represent the immediate claim of public debt on government resources and therefore provide a more direct measure of fiscal pressure than debt ratios alone.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last wk.

Bruno Caprettini, Alex Trew, & Hans-Joachim Voth turn to historical evidence to show that English labour shortages during the Napoleonic Wars created upward pressure on wages and led to massive productivity gains through the adoption of new machines. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure shows a strong positive association between recruitment intensity and wages.

As populations in rich countries age and fewer youngsters enter the labour force, employers and politicians bemoan labour ‘shortages’. This column turns to historical evidence to highlight why governments should learn to love labour shortages. Between 1792 and 1815, as Britain and France fought each other for global dominance, more than one out of every ten British men ended up in the army or navy, resulting in acute labour shortages and upward pressure on wages. The authors show how this labour scarcity and a skill abundance complemented each other in driving technology diffusion, boosting British productivity in the long run.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last wk.

@stepanmikula.bsky.social & @fabiosabatini.bsky.social use nighttime lights as a proxy for economic activity to show that Ukrainian strikes on Russian industrial assets can generate economically meaningful and persistent local losses. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The figure shows that the estimated decline is largest in the smallest cumulative buffer and becomes progressively smaller as the measurement area expands. Since the larger buffers also include the areas closest to the refinery, this pattern indicates that the contraction is concentrated near the facility rather than uniformly spread across the full radius.

Measuring the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries is difficult because reliable local data are scarce and both information and statistics are tightly controlled. This column uses nighttime lights as a proxy for economic activity to show that strikes on fixed industrial assets can generate economically meaningful and persistent local losses. They also illustrate how these losses can be measured when conventional data are unavailable, delayed, or difficult to verify independently.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · last wk.

Assaf Razin, who passed away in July 2026, had a distinguished career that spanned more than five decades. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman highlight his influential research on international trade, the welfare state, migration, fiscal policy, and more. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

During a distinguished career that spanned more than five decades, Assaf Razin, who passed away in July 2026, established himself as one of the leading international economists of his generation. This column describes how, across a range of topics including international trade, international finance, fiscal policy, taxation, migration, the welfare state, and financial crises, he combined theoretical innovation with an abiding concern for policy and for the ways in which globalisation expands national opportunities while constraining national choices.

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 2w ago

Catherine E. de Vries argues that as the EU faces mounting pressure to act faster and more decisively, the answer lies neither in a federal leap nor paralysis, but in a more strategic use of differentiated integration. cepr.org/publications... #Europe2050 #EconSky

As Europe faces mounting pressure to act faster and more decisively, the gap between what the EU needs to do and what its institutional framework allows is widening. In the latest paper in CEPR's Europe 2050 series, Catherine De Vries (IE University) argues that the answer is neither a federal leap nor paralysis, but a more strategic use of differentiated integration: the longstanding practice of allowing subsets of member states to move ahead while others remain outside. Drawing on historical examples from Schengen to the Eurozone to the coalitions supporting Ukraine, she shows that differentiation has always been a structural feature of European integration, not an exception. She maps four models — the status quo, enhanced cooperation, coalitions of the willing, and an inner core — each striking a different balance between the EU's capacity to act and its inclusiveness. No single model fits every challenge. Where broad agreement exists, Treaty-based cooperation remains preferable; where speed is essential, informal coalitions may be the only realistic option; and for long-term challenges like competitiveness and defence, a more stable inner core, as the emerging E6 format suggests, may be needed. The paper concludes with four guiding principles: establish clear rules for coalitions of the willing, match the form of differentiation to the policy challenge, create pathways from informal to formal cooperation, and keep participation open to all member states.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

In countries & states with career civil-service protections, the usual drag of populist governance largely vanishes. Without those institutional cushions, the economy takes a hit. What matters is that bureaucracy is professional & insulated. Massimo Morelli et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure: Event-study estimates for 2010–2023. Vertical bars show 90% and 95% confidence intervals. The sample contains eight switchers in states without civil-service reform and thirteen in states with reform.

Populist leaders increasingly cast public sector experts, oversight bodies, and career civil servants as illegitimate ‘elites’ standing in the way of the popular will. But bureaucratic institutions may protect the economy from the very disruptions that populists invite. This column examines the role of bureaucracy in mediating the negative effects of populist governments at the US state level. The results suggest that bureaucracy matters. In countries and states with career civil‐service protections, the usual drag of populist governance largely vanishes, but without those institutional cushions, the economy takes a hit. What matters is whether the bureaucracy is professional and insulated from political control.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

Damien Capelle et al. show that the binding constraint on completing the EU banking union is forming relationships and entering markets, not prices or quantities on existing loans, and these barriers correlate with regulatory difference. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure shows the average policy distance by country pair. The average bilateral policy distance is 25%: a typical pair of euro area countries still differs on roughly one in four regulatory variables, despite a decade of banking union reforms – the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Single Resolution Mechanism, and partial harmonisation of deposit insurance.

Despite major institutional reforms, the European Banking Union remains incomplete. Banking markets remain fragmented along national lines, which constrains Europe’s growth potential. This column uses loan-level data from the European credit registry combined with the bank group structure dataset to quantify where the barriers to cross-border lending lie, what role cross-country regulatory differences play, and how much output Europe forgoes as a result. It finds that the binding constraints sit on the extensive margin, that is, forming relationships and entering markets, that they are closely related to regulatory fragmentation, and that lifting them may deliver sizeable economic gains.

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 2w ago

CEPR Distinguished Fellow Jean-Pierre Landau and Paris Report 4 chapter author Sébastien Jean write about global imbalances for Project Syndicate. Find the 4th Paris Report on Global Imbalances here: cepr.org/publications...

Sébastien Jean@sebastienfmjean.bsky.social · 2w ago

Rethinking Global Imbalances, jointly with Jean-Pierre Landau @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/P2w9VSV

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

The EU is converging on a definition of economic security as reduced dependence. @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social argues this is mistaken. The EU will only have economic security if it treats integration depth, not self-sufficiency, as the union's security variable. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Europe is converging on a definition of economic security as reduced dependence – de-risking, reshoring, buying European. This column argues that the definition is mistaken. Three decades of evidence on financial and production networks shows that resilience is a property of a node’s position in the network – the depth, diversity, and quality of its connections – not of the number of connections it has severed for self-sufficiency. Applying this test to critical input supply chains such as energy and defence – with Turkey, the EU’s largest customs union partner, as the defining case – the author argues that Europe passes the initiative’s ‘Singapore test’ only if it treats integration depth, rather than self-sufficiency, as the union’s security variable.

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 2w ago

Grace Gu shares her experience balancing pregnancy, motherhood & a career. “I was lucky enough not to have to [choose] before tenure — but only because of delaying family. The women coming up behind me should not have to depend on that." ow.ly/z9B050Zrrvt #EconSky #WomenInEcon #WE_ARE_IN

Grace Weishi Gu

University of California, Santa Cruz

oneextrayear.substack.com

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 2w ago

At the 2026 PSE-CEPR Policy Forum, we were delighted to interview the #PhD students who presented their papers. We discuss their #research and what excites them about the future of research in #economics. In this episode, @costom.bsky.social gives her thoughts. #EconSky @pse.bsky.social

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

Gyöngyi Lóránth, Anatoli Segura, & Jing Zeng argue that greater freedom to move capital and liquidity across borders in a European Banking Union should be accompanied by sufficiently strict supervision to address the risk-taking incentives created by such reforms. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

European banking remains fragmented, leaving billions of euros inefficiently allocated. Reforms to establish a European deposit insurance system have been proposed to allow cross-border banking groups to operate more freely. This column argues that a common deposit insurance system fundamentally changes the link between risk-sharing and risk-taking. In addition to greater integration, it can encourage more risk-taking, with unclear effects on overall welfare. Therefore, greater freedom to move capital and liquidity across borders should be accompanied by sufficiently strict supervision to address the risk-taking incentives created by such reforms.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

I Delaporte, @veescudero.bsky.social, & H Liepmann present an ILO report that shows that socio-emotional and cognitive skills are in high demand and that employers seek rounded skills profiles. However, most countries still lack ambitious lifelong learning systems. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure: Panel A shows that integrated training programmes combining work-based learning with classroom-based instruction are more consistently associated with positive employment outcomes than stand-alone on-the-job training or internships. Panel B shows that programmes leading to recognised qualifications are, on average, more effective than those leading to certificates that are not quality-assured.

As digital, environmental, and demographic transformations reshape labour markets, skills influence who benefits from these changes and who falls behind. This column presents the findings of an International Labour Organization report that shows that socio-emotional and cognitive skills are in high demand and that employers seek rounded skills profiles. However, most countries still lack ambitious lifelong learning systems. The inclusiveness, quality, and adaptability of such systems will influence how economies and societies navigate structural transformation.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

Dennis Snower discusses two visions of building a new world order: Mark Carney's middle-power strategy, & Snower's own pivotal-power strategy. Both start from the same premise: the old order cannot simply be restored. But they differ in their diagnosis/implications. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

As the postwar international order fragments and universal agreement becomes increasingly elusive, policymakers face a pressing question: what form of cooperation can replace the postwar hegemon-led, rules-based system? This column examines two complementary answers. Mark Carney argues that coalitions of middle powers can preserve stability, resilience, and strategic autonomy in an era of great-power rivalry. The author of this column proposes a broader architecture of pivotal power coalitions organised around human flourishing, policy alignment, and polycentric governance. Their dialogue illuminates one of the defining policy challenges of our time: how to combine geopolitical realism with effective collective action. Together, these approaches offer a practical roadmap for building a more resilient, cooperative, and problem-solving world order.

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 2w ago

CEPR Discussion Papers Week Ending 19/07/2026 - https://ow.ly/LwGL50ZpX4Z

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

Jonathan Hartley & Morris Kleiner show that occupational licensing is widespread around the world and is often more common in developing countries than in richer nations. Higher occupational licensing is associated with higher informal employment rates. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure shows GDP per capita vs. proportion of labour force with occupational licences across nations

Occupational licensing has attracted growing attention in advanced economies, yet little has been known about its prevalence outside the US. This column presents new evidence from 44 countries using nationally representative surveys. It shows that licensing is widespread around the world and, surprisingly, is often more common in developing economies than in richer nations. Higher occupational licensing is associated with lower per capita incomes and higher informal employment rates. These patterns suggest occupational licensing deserves greater attention as part of the broader debate over labour market regulation, informality, and economic development.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

If foreign investors stopped treated US safe assets as international liquidity, the exchange-rate consequences are present but modest: a permanent real depreciation of roughly 9%. Larger effects fall on US interest rates, which rise by around 90 basis points. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure shows how the convenience yield on public dollar safe assets has fallen. Measured relative to currency-hedged euro funding, the premium on Treasuries and agency debt has compressed from its 2022 peak towards zero.

The dollar's role as the world's reserve currency has been blamed for an overvalued exchange rate that hollows out US manufacturing. This column quantifies what would happen if foreign investors stopped treating US safe assets as international liquidity. In a calibrated two-country model, the exchange-rate consequences are present but modest – a permanent real depreciation of roughly 9% – while the larger effects fall on US interest rates, which rise by around 90 basis points, and on national wealth, where the lost seigniorage is worth close to one year of GDP. The recent decline in convenience yields and foreign ownership of US public debt suggests the transition may already be under way.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

Maximilian Herrmann, Jingke Pan, & @adreher.bsky.social show that oil price shocks change where violence happens by pulling organised conflict towards petroleum fields. Aggregate conflict statistics can look calm while the local map of violence changes. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The map shows, for each oil-bearing grid cell in the sample, the predicted decline in conflict probability had oil prices remained at their December 1998 level instead of rising to their July 2008 peak. Cells are grouped at cut-offs of 36% and 45%, the 25th and 75th percentiles of positive predicted effects: 938 cells show predicted declines of up to 36%, 1,874 cells between 36% and 45%, and 932 cells above 45%.

Oil price shocks do not simply make conflict more likely everywhere; they change where violence happens. Using monthly georeferenced data for 131 low- and middle-income countries from 1989 to 2021, this column shows that higher oil prices pull organised conflict towards petroleum fields, while protests and attacks rise around refineries and pipelines. Aggregate conflict statistics can therefore look calm while the local map of violence is being redrawn.

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 2w ago

Stephan Heblich et al. show that the USSR's Million-Rouble Plants programme in China created positive economic spillovers in the short & medium run, but specialisation & constrained local entrepreneurship = a decline in other local establishments in the long run. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Figure shows treated counties (red) and the group of control counties (blue) in China.

There is growing evidence that place-based industrial policies lead to positive economic effects. This column analyses the “Million-Rouble Plants” programme of the 1950s when the Soviet Union helped China build state-of-the-art industrial facilities. By tracking the locations that benefitted, it finds positive economic spillovers in the short and medium run. Although the Million-Rouble Plants themselves continued to thrive, the performance of other local establishments eventually declined, as increasing specialisation weakened knowledge spillovers and constrained local entrepreneurship. Policymakers may achieve more durable gains by fostering diversified local production structures that encourage knowledge spillovers, labour market resilience, and adaptation to technological and market shocks.

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 2w ago

@sdonnan.bsky.social covers research by CEPR Fellow @reddingecon.bsky.social and co-authors in a recent Bloomberg News Supply Line newsletter. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet... Referenced paper: cepr.org/publications... #EconSky

A Summer Reading List to Grasp the Geopolitical Shifts Shaping the Future

US Treasury’s Bessent lays out a ‘doctrine’ steeped in economic self-reliance

bloomberg.com

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 3w ago

CEPR Research Fellow and Programme Director Isabelle Mejean participated in a France24 panel on issues in international trade earlier this month. www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9mis... #EconSky

La semaine de l’éco - Taxes américaines, déferlante chinoise : la guerre commerciale de retour ?

Le président américain Donald Trump menace de frapper l'Europe de nouveaux droits de douane de 100 % si elle met en place une taxe sur les services numériques américains. De quoi faire voler en éclats...

france24.com