🚨 Big news 🚨 After 10 years at Harvard, my lab is moving to Barcelona in Spring 2027 to join @cbc-upf.bsky.social and the Department of Engineering at @upf.edu. 1/4
Christian Bartels
@chriba.bsky.social
Interested in data ... pharmacometrics, causal inference, ..., risk management, cheminformatics, molecular modeling, protein structure determination, peptide sequencing | Basel https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=R3QYvdUAAAAJ
Causal inference without do-calculus nor potential outcomes. An important simplification? #causal #causal_inference #swig #docalculus #identification
Christian Bartels@chriba.bsky.social · 2mo agoSingle-world intervention graphs (SWIGs) as distributions. Conceptually, simultaneously related to and distinct from Rubin's framework and Pearl's calculus. doi.org/10.48550/arX... #SWIG #DAG #causal #identification #frontdoor #docalculus
Coding agents like Claude Code feel like magic but they’re really a bunch of tools in a trenchcoat. This week I build a working coding agent in R, starting from just three tools. I’ll add some extra tools to make it safer and more efficient. tidydesign.substack.com/p/a-coding-a...
A coding agent is six functions in a trenchcoat
Coding agents like Claude Code, Cursor, and Codex have taken the software engineering field by storm. What makes them tick?
tidydesign.substack.com
Many of us can save a child's life, if we rely on the best data. Giving money to a charity is one of the best things you can do for others. Your donation can make a huge difference. But whether or not your donation makes a difference greatly depends on *where* you donate.
New preprint on the current bottlenecks of deep learning-based methods for de novo peptide sequencing that underuse physical properties of spectra and how to overcome this with MemNovo: arxiv.org/abs/2606.11868
MemNovo: Look Back at the Spectrum for Balanced De Novo Peptide Sequencing from Mass Spectrometry
De novo peptide sequencing from tandem mass spectrometry is pivotal in proteomics, enabling identification of novel peptides without reference databases. While recent Transformer-based encoder-decoder...
arxiv.org
These three players from the Ivory Coast's World Cup team walked off the airplane looking like this. I'd say that's grossly unfair to the rest of humanity. (Ivorian designer Ibrahim Fernandez).
Défaite nette de l’UDC en Suisse, l’initiative « Pas de Suisse à 10 millions » est heureusement rejetée à 55%. Le parti d’extrême-droite annonce bien sûr déjà qu’il n’en restera pas là et gagnera la prochaine fois: la démocratie c’est seulement quand ça les arrange. Continuons à les faire perdre!!
A population cap would disrupt Switzerland’s relationship with Europe. Register for free to read how the country should instead regulate the inflow of migrants without breaking EU agreements
The Swiss would be foolish to cap their population at 10m
Immigration sometimes needs brakes, but the proposal would be like driving into a wall
econ.st
Early us of Bayesian approach in bioinformatics. Use available knowledge on chemical shifts and distances in homologous proteins as prior to assign NMR spectra for protein structure determination. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structu... doi.org/10.1007%2FBF... #nmr #protein #structure #bayesian
Early use of directed acyclic graphs to speed up analysis of mass spectrometry of peptides. Low polynomial time complexity, down from exponential complexity without DAGs. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_novo... doi.org/10.1002/bms.... #DAG #Peptide #sequencing
It's alive! 🎉 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁'𝘀 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁 is out -- an introduction to causal inference in practice. The first two chapters are available for free here: theissbendixen.com/dag-book/ More below 👇
In unsicheren Zeiten brauchen wir stabile Beziehungen zu Europa. Aber die Chaos-Initiative reisst genau diese Brücken ein – sie ist politisch und wirtschaftlich ein Eigentor, das unsere Sicherheit und unseren Wohlstand gefährdet.
Single-world intervention graphs (SWIGs) as distributions. Systematic way to derive identifying expressions for estimands. New front-door derivations extending more readily to complex settings. doi.org/10.48550/arX... #SWIG #DAG #causal #identification #frontdoor
Single World Intervention Graphs as Distributions: A Framework for Causal Identification
Causal inference seeks to estimate the effect of an intervention on an outcome using observed data, typically via Rubin's potential-outcome framework or Pearl's do-calculus. Following section 9 of Ric...
doi.org
Finally uploaded a revised version of this preprint on parameter identifiability arxiv.org/abs/2502.04867. Approach called 'invariant image reparameterisation' though 'image' used in mathematical sense not picture sense. Took me a while to revise for various reasons, but fairly happy with it now
Finally switched to DuckDuckGo and it’s nice to not have LLM summaries anymore
How will populations across the world change in the 21st century? 🔧 Explore for yourself with our new interactive tool!
One week away! Don't miss the next Methods Series presentation with Alex Ocampo.
CAUSALab@causalab.org · 4mo agoAlex Ocampo continues the 2026 Methods Series speaker lineup in 2 weeks @ki.se 👇 "Simplifying Causal Mediation Analysis for Time-to-Event Outcomes using Pseudo-Values." 📆 April 7, 2026 ⏰ 15.00 CEST/9.00 EDT 📍 Online Register to attend: stats.sender.net/forms/e7JD1d...
The median age in China has rapidly caught up with the United Kingdom— In 1965, the median age in the United Kingdom was almost twice that of China. Half of the people in the UK were younger than 34 years, and half were older. In China, this midpoint was just 18 years.
Meanwhile, Spain's massive investment in renewables is paying dividends now: with prices for Spanish industry and consumers low and stable compared with other European economies. www.ft.com/content/ac77...
Post a pic you took, no context, to bring some zen to the feed.
TRAstonDrs@castltrastondrs.bsky.social · 5mo agoPost a pic you took, no context, to bring some zen to the feed.
spending my sunday evening once again attempting to draw a DAG for diff-in-diff
📣The 2026 Symposium of #CausalInference in the #HealthSciences takes place on March 18, 2026 in Fribourg. Theme: AI & machine learning in causal inference for health sciences 🎤Keynotes: Elsa Gautrain, Aurélien Sallin, Jonas Peters, Jana Mareckova 🔗https://projects.unifr.ch/pophealthlab/?page_id=1561
We apply the estimand framework to dose–exposure–response analyses. ... strategy to improve exposure–response analyses for dose selection, particularly when the relevant evidence includes data from multiple studies. #estimand #exposure-response #dose-response #causal doi.org/10.1002/psp4...
Some Common Dose–Exposure–Response Estimands and Conditions for Their Causal Identifiability
Exposure–response analyses are central to dose selection in drug development. The estimand framework, formalized in ICH E9(R1) regulatory guidance, provides a structured approach to define scientific...
doi.org
For years I had trouble following some of the discussion about confidence bands, but at ACIC this year @noahgreifer.bsky.social pointed me to a helpful paper So you don't have to be as perplexed as I once was, we have a new pre-print introducing the key ideas arxiv.org/abs/2510.07076
Confidence Regions for Multiple Outcomes, Effect Modifiers, and Other Multiple Comparisons
In epidemiology, some have argued that multiple comparison corrections are not necessary as there is rarely interest in the universal null hypothesis. From a parameter estimation perspective, epidemio...
arxiv.org
I'm so excited to announce the first release of my newest #Rstats package, {adrftools}! This package facilitates estimation, visualization, and testing for the causal effect of a continuous (i.e., non-discrete) treatment. 🧵 1/10 #statssky #episky #causalinference
adrftools: Estimating, Visualizing, and Testing Average Dose-Response Functions
Facilitates estimating, visualizing, and testing average dose-response functions (ADRFs) for characterizing the causal effect of a continuous (i.e., non-discrete) treatment or exposure. Includes suppo...
cran.r-project.org
As I said, this is the important work that needs to be done. Mark's paper is overly simplistic, arguing we can't judge deviations at all. Deviations are in practice not remotely as bad as he wants. If he had collected actual data,che would have falsified his own claims.
This is a fairly technical but highly relevant paper on how we can model complex systems at various levels of detail without losing causal content. Think gas: instead of tracking every molecule, we can focus on big-picture properties like temperature and pressure. www.auai.org/uai2017/proc...
