CICERO Center for International Climate Research

@cicero.oslo.no

CICERO Center for International Climate Research is Norway’s foremost institute for interdisciplinary climate research.

"The upper limit of iron fertilization ... correspond[s] to a net annual drawdown rate of 0.14–0.70 Gt CO2/yr" (we emit around 40GtCO2/yr). Plus, significant uncertainty, trade-offs, and difficult to verify. Perhaps we could just reduce CO2 emissions by an extra 1-2%?

David Ho@davidho.bsky.social · 7d ago

A modeling study spanning 60 years of ocean iron fertilization across 10 ocean biomes reveals stark trade-offs in its use as a CO₂ removal technique. 🌊🧪

In June, 51% of cars sold in Ireland were BEV. But June is always a month with very few sales. We need to wait until July to see what's really happening in the market. Ireland has two peak months each year because of the licence plate system.

Graph showing: Monthly sales of new passenger cars: Ireland

Yesterday in California (CAISO): ▸State gas squeezed to almost nothing (but there's some in imports from other states) ▸Hydro squeezed out much of the day, saving valuable reservoir water ▸SunZia wind delivering ▸Batteries discharging all night

Graph showing: California's grid power mix: 28 June 2026

Often on India's grid there's too much solar at midday and not enough storage (batteries and pumped hydro) for the surplus. A daily auction solves this, paying participants not to generate so grid stability is maintained. But this is wasted generation, and storing would be better.

Graph showing: India's grid power: 3 May 2026

▸"A surge in orders for electric motorbikes and buses assembled in numerous African countries" ▸“Nothing has paid the Trump tax more than diesel in this part of the world” ▸“It’s arguable that [Donald] Trump will inadvertently do more to accelerate the EV transition than any other US president”

Iran war supercharges electric vehicle uptake in Africa

Boom in demand for electric motorbikes and buses on continent is a boost for China

giftarticle.ft.com

The mistake the IEA made was that it didn't forecast the response to these scenario projections. "IEA projection" has become a meme, no matter how much the IEA has tried to clarify what they actually meant. "Expected" and "Current Policies Scenario" are not the same thing. Pity the prognosticator.

Kate Mackenzie@katemac.bsky.social · 2mo ago

This might be one of the funniest chart about energy scenarios I’ve seen. You can hardly see “actual” for gas

Winners and Losers
The IEA overestimated gas growth in Asia and underestimated solar

Gas
• Forecast 547 TWh
• Actual 17 TWh

Solar
• Forecast 465 TWh
• Actual 1,333 TWh

Note: Shows expected growth in Asian power generation between 2018 and 2025, based on actual 2018 generation, actual 2025 generation, and the 2018 World Energy Outlook's Current Policies Scenario estimates for 2025. Actual 2025 generation figures are from Ember.
Source: International Energy Agency, Ember, Bloomberg Opinion calculations

It's good to see a steady stream of research results on improving carbon capture. One of the biggest problems is that amines are held in aqueous solutions and releasing the captured CO₂ requires boiling that solution, demanding significant energy. This team is using a different approach.

One-step CO₂ system triples capture, ditches silver for zinc, and turns emissions into industrial fuel feedstock

Every year, power plants and factories release billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. Methods exist to capture that CO₂ using chemical solutions and, separately, to convert pure...

techxplore.com

I hear it asserted a lot that ESMs ‘must’ be tuned to get historical CO2 right, and I just thought I’d remind everyone that historical, emissions-driven simulations are so expensive they are ~impossible to fine-tune. You get maybe 2 practice runs before show time