Unsere Prognosen für die drei Landtagswahlen im September sind ab sofort online. In Sachsen-Anhalt liegt die AfD in Umfragen bei über 40 Prozent — aber reicht es für eine absolute Mehrheit der Sitze? Die klassische Sonntagsfrage kann diese Frage nicht beantworten.

📣 We're hiring! Looking for a PostDoc? Join our team in Berlin! Work with @heikekluever.bsky.social, @macartan.bsky.social and Johannes Giesecke at Humboldt University, @scripts-berlin.eu and @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social Great people, great project, great city! 🗓️ Deadline: 15 August 2026

📢 Job Ad: I am looking for one doctoral researcher (75%) in my newly funded DFG project on misperceptions and factual information on immigration from 1.10. or soon after! 📌 Location: MZES, University of Mannheim 💢 Application Deadline: 21st of July

Research by day, networking by night! Great to see many of our PhD Researchers and Alumni presenting their work at the first Annual Conference of the European Political Science Society in Belfast. We are proud of the ideas they shared and the conversations that continued after the panels ended.

On my way to the inaugural @epssnet.bsky.social conference in Belfast. I'm very much looking forward to presenting two papers! Paper I on party strategies in contested liberal democracies: 13:30-15:10, 20 June, Lagan B (Hilton)

Genau 100 Tage vor der Wahl in Sachsen-Anhalt diskutieren wir @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social die Herausforderungen & Chancen für Volksparteien im Wahljahr 2026. Freitag, 29. Mai 2026 - 14:00-16:00, Senatssaal @humboldtuni.bsky.social Jetzt noch anmelden unter: umfrage.hu-berlin.de/index.php/22...

🚨 Stellenausschreibung 🚨 Promotionsstelle zu Parteien in ländlich-peripheren Räumen (4 Jahre, 75 %) Das Projekt verbindet qualitative Interviews, die Analyse lokaler Parteistrukturen und Inhaltsanalysen von Wahlprogrammen. 🗓️ Bewerbungsschluss: 31.05.2026 www.uni-greifswald.de/universitaet...

Our paper is out in Nature Human Behaviour! @rsenninger.bsky.social and I asked a simple, underexplored, question: when governments write policy documents, whose knowledge do they actually cite? 👉 rdcu.be/fhngy 🔓 seramirezruiz.github.io/papers/ramir... DOI: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧵👇

Thrilled to have contributed to the 2026 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change We (w/Cornelius Erfort) collected over 500k party press releases and used LLMs to document party engagement with climate and public health across Europe www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

The 2026 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: narrowing window for decisive health action

This third iteration of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Europe report systematically tracks the health effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation action, economics and fi...

thelancet.com

🚨 Job alert! 🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion/IR (3 yrs) @unigreifswald.bsky.social Work on democratic resilience in times of crisis using cross-national survey data. flexible start (earliest possible) deadline: 31 May 2026 🔗 www.uni-greifswald.de/en/universit...

🚨 Just shipped a major update to GERDA, the German Election Database. - State elections update: new years + mail-in - 3 new election types: Mayoral, County, European - Municipal elections: 1984-2025 - Meinungsbild public opinion - New website & features german-elections.com

Glad to see this out at @epsrjournal.bsky.social! Using ESS data, Raquel Rego and I find that an anti-immigration stance is the strongest predictor of far-right sympathies among police and military personnel—similar to the general population. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Thrilled that my paper (w/@sarahobolt.bsky.social,@catherinedevries.bsky.social,@simonecremaschi.bsky.social) was accepted at the American Political Science Review! We find that declining public services fuel support for the populist right — and show why the right benefits more than other parties 🧵

Really excited to see my final dissertation paper out 🎉 Do parties shift their issue priorities when polls decline? Looking at press releases from 68 parties in 9 countries, we find little evidence that they do.

West European Politics@wepsocial.bsky.social · 6mo ago

🎉 Online first: Do parties shift their issue priorities when polls drop? Examining press releases across 68 parties in 9 countries, @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social , @heikekluever.bsky.social & @lstoetze.bsky.social find little evidence that they do. 🔗 doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Thanks so much for the invitation. I really enjoyed the workshop. Big thanks to @zachdickson.bsky.social and @antvalentim.bsky.social for putting it together!

António Valentim@antvalentim.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Really enjoyed co-hosting (w/ the great @zachdickson.bsky.social ) last week’s ECR workshop on Climate & Political Behaviour at LSE. Big thanks to everyone who came and for making such a great workshop! Thank you also to @gsos-lse.bsky.social & @britishacademy.bsky.social for the generous support!

🗳️ Neue Prognose: Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg (8. März) und Rheinland-Pfalz (22. März) BW: Kopf-an-Kopf CDU vs. Grüne. RP: CDU und SPD fast gleichauf. Unsere Modellvorhersage mit 5/6-Kredibilitätsintervallen und Szenario-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 👇 zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/f...

Day 1 wrapped up, excited for tomorrow 🤗

zweitstimme.org@zweitstimme.bsky.social · 10mo ago

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

More and more young people are turning to the far right. Why and what can we do about it? Join our #COVIDEU Workshop on Nov 21 (2–5 PM) to discuss causes and counter-strategies. 🚀 Hosted by @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social 💡 Funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de 👉 Register: tinyurl.com/bdenyfnw

🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨 Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

Very much looking forward to presenting recent experimental findings on voters’ perceptions of election polls @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social (@mzesunimannheim.bsky.social) next week!

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · 10mo ago

🚨 Upcoming: "What Shapes Voter Perceptions of Election Polls? The Impact of Partisanship and Visual Design" 👤 @eliaskoch.bsky.social (Hertie School) 🗓️ Wed, November 5, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Glad to see this out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! I show that the immigration-crime issue, when salient, can shift leftist cosmopolitans to the Right. This is due to leftist voters being more conservative on crime than leftist parties. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library

Concern that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape electoral politics? Prior research asserted a growing left–right divide in immigration attitudes...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

💥 Update! 💥 This paper is now officially published in Volume 30, Issue 4 of The International Journal of Press/Politics! 🗳️ Experimental evidence that voters prefer moderately tailored messages - highly tailored ones can backfire & targeting can be too much: doi.org/10.1177/1940... #IJPP

How Much Tailoring is too Much? Voter Backlash on Highly Tailored Campaign Messages - Christina Gahn, 2025

Findings on whether voters like or dislike targeted campaign messages have been contradictory. I argue that voters react differently depending on how precisely ...

doi.org

Christina Gahn@christinagahn.bsky.social · 2y ago

🎯 Publication alert! 🎯 Excited to share that my first single-authored dissertation paper is now published at The International Journal of Press/Politics #IJPP 🔓Check out the open access (thanks @univienna) paper here: doi.org/10.1177/1940... 1/2

Looking forward to presenting recent findings on the attitudinal effects of election polls later this term in Mannheim, in part based on joint work w/ @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social, @linushagemann.de, @hannahrajski.bsky.social, Thomas Gschwend, @lstoetze.bsky.social & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social.

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

▶️ Social Science Data Lab: Fall 2025 Events Six input talks by great researchers (see below ⤵️)! 🗓️ Details & Zoom: socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/ 👥 Organizers: @rubac.bsky.social, @denis-cohen.bsky.social and Alexander Wenz

EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026. 😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA. 👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things. A short 🧵

New paper out @wepsocial.bsky.social! 🥡 Key Take-Away: Opposition parties seek more conflict with the government when performing poorly in the polls – especially when falling below their previous election result. Read full 🧵 below:

1/ New paper out in Electoral Studies with @heikekluever.bsky.social and @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social We show that nuclear power plants reduce electoral support for Green parties in Germany. 🔗 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... A thread on the paper:

How nuclear power hurts the Greens: Evidence from German nuclear power plants

What are the electoral consequences of nuclear energy for Green parties? Despite the centrality of nuclear opposition to Green party platforms, and th…

sciencedirect.com

📣 Call for Applications 📣 3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀 Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us! 🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025

The Department of Homeland Security has spend over $800k worth of ads on Facebook and Instagram clearly targeted at people with Latin American / Mexican background telling them that "if you are here illegaly we will find you and we will deport you".

Very excited to present my paper with @heikekluever.bsky.social on the consequences of far-right parties in government at #EPSA2025 on Friday! 🗓️ Friday 4:50-6:30 📍 Room 0A.06 | Panel P10-S253

Are tailored ads in political campaigns as persuasive as conventional wisdom holds? 📢 In joint work w/ @heikekluever.bsky.social we present evidence from a field experiment with the German Greens ahead of the 2024 European Elections calling this into question 🤔 #epsa2025 ⏰: Friday, 16:50 📍: 0A.10