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zweitstimme.org

@zweitstimme.bsky.social

Die wissenschaftliche Vorhersage | Berlin, Mannheim, Witten | http://zweitstimme.org | Team: @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social @lstoetze.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @eliaskoch.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social & Thomas Gschwend

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Nils Steiner@nilssteiner.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Am kommenden Sonntag wird hier in Rheinland-Pfalz gewählt. Nach den Umfragen ist mit einem Kopf-an-Kopf zwischen SPD und CDU zu rechnen - so auch die Prognose von @zweitstimme.bsky.social. Wer vorne liegt, wird voraussichtlich den Ministerpräsidenten in einer künftigen Großen Koalition stellen. 1/X

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Belén Abdala@beluabdala.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Had a great time at the @zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior. I presented my work on why minority groups vote, and how these motivations relate to turnout among LGB and ethnic minorities. Amazing conversations and a very inspiring group!

zweitstimme.org@zweitstimme.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

Elena Leuschner@elenaleuschner.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Had an absolutely amazing time! Great presentations + discussions, incl. impressive data collections from 160 treatments to 30,000 respondents Thank you for the immaculate organization @eliaskoch.bsky.social @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social

zweitstimme.org@zweitstimme.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

Ruth Dassonneville@rdassonneville.bsky.social · 9mo ago

So great to be in Berlin for this fantastic @zweitstimme.bsky.social workshop! I presented joint work with @bjarneck.bsky.social and @bramwauters.bsky.social on the limited effects of mobilizing measures following the abolition of compulsory voting in Flanders.

zweitstimme.org@zweitstimme.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🕑 Join us *today* at 13:45 CEST for the talk 'Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches' by @hannahrajski.bsky.social (University of Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke University). ⬇️ Zoom link and details below

MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 Upcoming: "Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches" 👤 @hannahrajski.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) & @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social (Witten/Herdecke Uni) 🗓️ Wed, May 21, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Forecasting the German Federal Election 2025 - Different Modelling Approaches Abstract The Zweitstimme.org project presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting the 2025 German federal election, combining multiple methodologies to predict both party vote shares (Zweitstimme) and constituency-level outcomes (Erststimme). This presentation showcases three distinct forecasting approaches: a dynamic Zweitstimme model, a proportional swing Erststimme model, and citizen forecasting. The project also communicated the forecasts and their uncertainties to the public, with results being shared in various media outlets. Presenter(s) Hannah Rajski is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. She works in the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. Her main research interests lie in quantitative methods, comparative politics, and political sociology with a focus on political behaviour and elections. In her dissertation she analyses voters‘ expectations about election outcomes and how these can be aggregated into citizen forecasts. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics, Administration and International Relations from Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany and a master’s degree in Politics and Public Administration from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Cornelius Erfort is Postdoc at the Witten/Herdecke University, working on the project Election Forecasts for the German Federal Election 2025. His general interests are in comparative politics and quantitative methods. More specifically, he is working on voter targeting, interest groups, and voting behavior. In his dissertation, he analyzed how parties use the target and tailor their digital election ads. He was a member of the Research Training Group DYNAMICS which is jointly organized by Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the Hertie School.