Chris Vagasky

@coweatherman.bsky.social

American Meteorologist Blixtexperten Weather Measurements Guy Award-Winning Communicator AMS Certified Digital Meteorologist #18

Good news if you didn’t want a soggy Wednesday, but bad news if you wanted more soaking rains. The heaviest rain potential has dropped south of the Cheddar Curtain and we’re looking at only 0.1 - 0.5” of rain today. It’s not an all day rain and the heaviest rain will be in scattered pockets.

Expected precipitation totals of 0.1 to 0.5 inches today.

Learning about the Wisconsin portion of the VORTEX-USA project, seeing how the state compares to others with respect to how we receive and respond to weather warnings. After this is a panel discussion about the 2025 flooding.

The Big Question
We have spent decades improving forecasts.
Now we must improve how people understand them-and act.
FORECAST
→
WARNING
→
DECISION
→
PROTECTIVE ACTION
The warning is only successful when it supports the right decision in time.
NOAA VORTEX-USA • Wisconsin

Interesting results on how the public would support use of AI in weather forecasting/warning operations. AI continues to be a polarizing topic, so take care when incorporating it into your operations.

How much would you support the use of AI in various weather forecasting/warning operations? Roughly middle of the road for everything. People who use AI a lot support the use of AI in weather forecasting and warning operations. People who don’t use it much are less supportive.

We could not buy a drop of rain in July. Now, southern Wisconsin is in line for another 1-2 inches of rain this week, with most of it falling Wednesday. There’s a Level 2/4 risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday, including Madison, Milwaukee, and Fond du Lac.

Map showing the rainfall forecast between now and Thursday morning. A widespread 1-2 inches of rain is expected over southern Wisconsin.Screenshot of the Wisconet outdoor activities dashboard for Madison. It displays the Wednesday August 5 excessive rainfall outlook and current conditions.

We’re looking forward to seeing everyone this week at the @ametsoc.org Madison Summit! Stop by the poster session tomorrow to talk to our program manager and front end developer. Be sure to bookmark wisconet.wisc.edu as your one-stop-shop for Wisconsin weather information while you’re in town!

Screenshot of the Wisconet website, showing the Madison Outdoor Activities Dashboard, with a forecast and current outlooks displayed.

Their 4th best outfield prospect, a 27-year-old minor leaguer who blew his elbow out two years ago, and a 21-year-old who is 0-10 with a 4.72 ERA in 30 starts in the minors. Tigers got fleeced. I for one welcome the lockout so I only have 3 Detroit teams to be disappointed in.

Todd Murphy@toddamurphy.bsky.social · 3d ago

I don’t mind the Dodgers trading for Skubal. At least they finally had to give up, something, for a top tier player. I do mind they’re going to sign him before the lockout for $1 billion, with 90% deferred until 2100.

As the rain winds down, we see widespread 2-4 inch totals across southern Wisconsin…much needed rainfall after a very dry July. A side benefit is that the sky looks a little bluer than it has In the last couple weeks. The rain has helped clear out remnant smoke particles.

Map showing rain totals across Wisconsin in the last 48 hours.

And there was much rejoicing from the lawns, gardens, and watersheds, as a steady rain fell across southern Wisconsin. Widespread 2-4” totals have been measured by Wisconet and CoCoRaHS observers in the last 24 hours.

Map showing rain totals in the last 24 hours across Wisconsin.

We have seen an above average number of lightning fatalities in July, with a 7th reported fatality today. A woman who was walking on a beach in North Carolina was struck and injured by lightning on July 25. Sadly, she has passed away. www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/n...

Lightning knocks beachgoer unconscious in NC and injures companion, rescuers say

Morning lightning strike knocks beachgoer unconscious at Wrightsville Beach, and injures someone standing near her, North Carolina rescuers say.

charlotteobserver.com

The forecast is looking good for heavy rain along and south of I-94, with 1-3 inches possible. Lower totals further north. With as dry as its been, the rain may not soak into the soil initially, so watch for ponding in low-lying areas. Current radar: wisconet.wisc.edu

Map showing forecast rain totals for Wisconsin. 1-3 inches of rain are forecast along and south of I-94.Map showing radar and daily rain totals across Wisconsin.

I've got one more plot left in me before I leave this dead horse alone. Two day T/Td time series from ISU Soil Moisture network Kanawha (near Algona) (literal ag field), Ames ASOS, and Algona AWOS. Two subplots show physically explainable processes, the other does not.

time series from three different station types.
daryl herzmann@akrherz.bsky.social · 7d ago

Shouting into the ether here, but am back to again tap down the 90°F dew point talk over Iowa earlier this week. Lots going on here with this plot, but it isn't corn, it is just bad data. Don't overthink it.

Drought continues to spread across Wisconsin as our dry July winds to an end. Shallow-rooted plants need irrigation, as plant available water through 8" is approaching zero. Southwestern Wisconsin has a chance for heavier rain tomorrow, but not enough where it's needed most.

Current drought monitor showing expansion of severe drought in northern Wisconsin and moderate drought across the Northwoods and southeastern Wisconsin.Chart showing the precipitous decline in plant available water during the month of July at Cold Spring.Map showing the excessive rainfall outlook for Friday July 31. A Level 2/4 risk is in place for southwestern and south-central Wisconsin.Expected precipitation across Wisconsin through Sunday. It mainly falls on Friday.