Chris Fogarty, PhD
@cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social
Meteorologist/Manager at the Canadian Hurricane Centre @ECCC_CHC | Tropical cyclone (hurricane) and many weather related topics | postings are own not employer
Clear this afternoon - high-resolution Sentinel satellite view over Parrsboro NS with blueberry fields showing up in shades of maroon and crimson. #nswx
Tropical Cyclone Info Statement from CHC on Subtropical Storm Josephine: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/st.... Mainly a marine hazard, with hurricane-force winds likely on its backside as it transitions to post-tropical. Will also help fuel a feed of moisture and gusty conditions into parts of Nfld. #nlwx
Afternoon view of the storm causing issues along the coast from North Carolina to New Jersey. This is attempting to transform into a subtropical storm. #93L
On this date...25 years ago our second Canadian research flight into Tropical Storm Karen (first was Michael in 2000) as it approached western Nova Scotia. Here is the report from the storm and flight data. novaweather.net/Hurricane_Ka... report and data: novaweather.net/Hurricane_Ka... #nswx
Wasn't planning on this since the sample is tiny, but had two requests, so here are the track and intensity verifications for Hurricane CantPronounce. GDMI big winner for track. Mixed bag for intensity, but the physical hurricane models were positive contributors. (Name credit Marty Merzer.)
As #HurricaneIsaias dominates coverage, San Diego is under a Tropical Storm Watch. Yes, you read that correctly. For only the 2nd time in history, this has been issued. I explain...#TropicalStormRachel www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...
Foliage change from high-resolution Sentinel satellite over northern Cape Breton comparing Aug 27 to today Oct 3. #nswx www.novaweather.net/Photos/folia...
novaweather.net
3-month review of daily max temperatures in Halifax. August was generally warmer than normal but September has been cooler than normal. Normal daytime max temp is ~23C Sept 1 and ~17C by the 30th. #nswx
Satellite snapshot showing the large low off NJ with what looks like an eye but it's really just a cleared area of shallow cloud near the center. A true eye (as in a hurricane) has heavy rain immediately encircling it. In this case the rain is WELL removed from the center.
It's technically not a tropical storm (and has no formal name) but it will be a mess especially along the heavily-populated coastline from MA to NJ to DE. Here is a detailed meteorological analysis for those interested in the fine points.
Tomer Burg@burgwx.bsky.social · last mo.Google DeepMind shows a 33% chance of a tropical storm. ECMWF's tropical cyclone probabilities from EPS & AIFS exceed 80%. Surely that means this nor'easter will be a tropical storm, right? Short answer... it's not that simple. Breaking down why in this technical thread 🧵
2/2. On this day 30yrs exactly - 1996 Hurricane Hortense was on approach to Nova Scotia making landfall east of Halifax later that night. Streets in the Halifax area were strewn with tree debris including large limbs. Up to 150 mm (6") of rain was also measured. #nswx
On this day 30yrs exactly - 1996 Hurricane Hortense was on approach to Nova Scotia making landfall east of Halifax later that night. Streets in the Halifax area were strewn with tree debris including large limbs. Up to 150 mm (6") of rain was also measured (below). #nswx
Although the greatest total rainfall in Cape Breton was in Victoria County (280-320 mm ~12"), it did not fall at the extreme rate there as it did in Richmond Co where the heaviest damage occurred. 23 mm/hr over ~8hrs at Sampsonville late Fri/early Sat. #nsstorm
Latest tally of rainfall including the near-12" (1 foot) 293 mm at North River Bridge Cape Breton (between Englishtown and Ingonish). The value is not from an official ECCC site but it believed to be credible. #nswx #nsstorm kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWHX/26...
AWCN from CWHX
kamala.cod.edu
Another sign that El Nino is very pronounced this year - very quiet Atlantic hurricane season while very active Pacific.
Tally of rain data for PEI with updates: kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWHX/aw... #pewx #pestorm
Recent 's from CWHX
kamala.cod.edu
Latest tally of all that rainfall which has brought extensive flooding (road washouts) to Cape Breton in particular. Also power outages from wind (trees/branches). kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWHX/26... #nswx #nsstorm #NotEvenANamedStorm
AWCN from CWHX
kamala.cod.edu
Summary of the wild thunderstorms in Ontario (especially Toronto area) on Sept 2 #onstorm #onwx kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWTO/26...
AWCN from CWTO
kamala.cod.edu
Rainfall around the GTA over the past 12 hours (to ~6:30 pm EDT) that lead to many issues today. Based on this and several rain gauges, Orangeville-Bolton-Vaughan got hit with 80-100 mm (3-4") much of which fell over a 90-minute period. Pickering max fell earlier today #onstorm
If you're still up later tonight 12-1am and the sky is clear (decent chance it will be at least partly clear) you can view the moon turning various shades of red from the eclipse. Halifax details (similar throughout Maritimes): timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/c... #nswx #pewx #nbwx
August 28, 2026 Partial Lunar Eclipse in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Start time, end time, animation, and detailed viewing information for the upcoming eclipse in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
timeanddate.com
Ocean surface temperatures are running fairly warm off the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia now. 20C/68F not far offshore of Halifax. Part of the story with recently high humidity and dew points.
Cooler than normal around the Great Lakes today. Warmer than normal in the East. Anom map in degrees C.
