Judging by the rattling of our windows, I cannot imagine the turbulence on this YOLO flight coming into Maui right now…
Daniel Mangrum
@danielmangrum.com
Economist at NY Fed studying consumer finance, household debt, education, and urban topics. Occasional NBA and NYC/BK content. Views are all mine. www.danielmangrum.com
You ever see a movie trailer where like every character is played by an A-lister?
NBER@nber.org · last mo.Examining if employers value community college bachelor’s degrees by conducting a study of Community College Baccalaureate degrees, finds interview-request rates similar to traditional bachelor’s degrees, from @riacton, Morales, Turner, @loismiller.bsky.social, and Cortes www.nber.org/papers/w35404
Updated version of this paper dropping soon!
Joey Politano🏳️🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 2mo agoBetting is so unregulated & growing so fast in the US that it's creating a growing population of problem gamblers—Researchers at the New York Fed looked at millions of credit reports to show that debt delinquency jumps in states that legalized sports betting (and their neighbors)
Wading into the fourth Dungeon Crawler Carl book wondering what exactly is wrong with me…
In today’s post, the authors share that our latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit finds that while student loan balances remained unchanged in Q1 2026, the share of student loan balances past due increased, neared pre-pandemic levels at just over 10%. nyfed.org/433SNF2
Federal Student Loan Defaults Return After Pandemic Pause - Liberty Street Economics
A look at federal student loan default rates and which borrowers have defaulted on their loans over the past two quarters, exploring credit implications.
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Come for the gambling, stick around for the spatial spillover bias with TWFE in a staggered difference-in-differences setting.
New York Fed@newyorkfed.org · 3mo agoIn new research, Research Economist Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com finds a marked impact from mobile sports betting on people’s credit health where it is legal—and spillover effects to nearby states where it isn’t. Learn more: www.youtube.com/shorts/MDzVj...
Pssst. It's us. The New York Fed is here on Bluesky. Make your way to the front of the line to become one of our earliest followers. And feel free to repost! It's not really a secret!
Issues with spatial spillovers in staggered DD designs: Exhibit A
Todd Jones@toddrjones.bsky.social · 4mo agoPercent of Workers Working in Their Home State, by County.
I’m trying to imagine the tote bag/coffee mug/hoodie you get for a donation of that size...
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 4mo agoNPR on Thursday said it had received two gifts totaling $113 million, including the largest donation from a living donor in the network’s history. The donations, from the philanthropist Connie Ballmer and an anonymous donor, will support the network’s long-term strategy.
Interesting and depressing finding from @danielmangrum.com and colleague, but not surprising at all.
FT Alphaville@alphaville.ft.com · 5mo agoIs it socially valuable? No. Is it economically valuable? No. But is it fun? Also no. as.ft.com/r/4b8e2109-7...
Wheels up soon to #AEFP2026. I’ll be chairing a session in the first block tomorrow and presenting in the second. If you’re interested in higher ed finance, I’ll see you at both!
Underrated massive improvement from LLMs on research productivity? Documentation! Everything of mine is vastly more organized now. Within and across projects and workflows. Maybe that’s just a tell of how bad it was for me before but a huge improvement to have organized digital headspace.
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham@paulgp.com · 5mo agoMy attempt at articulating why I think LLMs are a clear net positive for all research, and it's a mistake to ignore it despite private concerns: paulgp.com/2026/03/16/r...
🧵 Jake Goss and I have a new paper where we study how legalized mobile sports betting affects consumer credit and how betting spills across state lines into places where it’s still illegal. newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1184
Staff Reports
Technical working papers
newyorkfed.org
“Create a baby boom with this one simple trick!”
Alex Ip 葉清霖@alexip718.com · 6mo agoINBOX: South Korea's birth rate increased(!) for a second straight year(!!), with the highest year-over-year growth rate since 2007(!!!) For the first time since 1981 (!!!!), both monthly births and marriages increased for all 12 months: www.chosun.com/english/mark...
I previously thought that everyone was turning hyper productive using Claude Code but then I read the quotes and replies to this and apparently that’s not the case.
Former Pingu Child Actor (BANISHED)@cursedpingu.bsky.social · 6mo agolol this is gonna burst so fucking hard
New research alert! Are smartphones changing knowledge measures on surveys? tl;dr YES! This is work with my awesome coauthors Olivia Valdes and Jeremy Burke--probably one of the most fun papers I've been a part of.
Bad Bunny is a born US citizen. Hope this helps.
The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com · 6mo agoThe Super Bowl halftime show, with Bad Bunny showcasing Latin music before a global television audience expected to top 100 million, will illustrate the nation’s immigration divide whether or not the reggaeton star delivers an explicit political message.
Starting to worry a bit about the last 2 minutes of my flight…
"Buy Now, Pay Later" apps like Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have built a delirious new culture of consumption — and trapped users in a vortex of debt.
Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay: How ‘Buy Now Pay Later’ Built a New Culture of Consumption
‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ has built a delirious new culture of consumption — and trapped users in a vortex of debt.
nyti.ms
Very cool new paper from @danielmangrum.com and others at the NY Fed investigating BNPL. Conclusion: BNPLs are negatively-selected to consumers with worth credit, meaning the space is generally expanding credit with its growth. www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary...
Hands down best example of AI enhanced productivity. Shoutout to peach puff
A few student loan stats. First 4 from our new blog post, last 2 from ED. 1. Nearly 1 in 4 student loan borrowers with a payment due was past due at the end of the first quarter libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/05/stud...
