Dan Oehm
@danoehm.bsky.social
๐ Statistician ๐ซถ #Rstats ๐ #Dataviz ๐โโ๏ธ Trail runner ๐ค Metalhead โค๏ธ Dad ๐ฅ #survivor ๐ Canberran ๐ฟ Vego Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/ Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/
I've added a new data set ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐_๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ to the survivoR package. No new info but makes analysis way easier e.g. now you can choose a point in time and see which advantages were in play. Want to guess which season/episode had the most advantages/idols in play at TC? #Survivor
Rizo has held an idol for 18 tribal councils. Second only to Ozzy on 19 and tied with Tai. Of those three, only Tai has played an idol successfully (three in fact) #Survivor
That's a wrap on #Survivor50. Preliminary data is up and ready to go. There are still a few things to add, which I'll complete in the next few days. The next release will also include a new advantages table. Download the xlsx from Git. Any corrections, let me know. ๐ github.com/doehm/survivoR
Mildly interesting - Cirie has voted for the winner of the season 4 out of 4 times she has been on the jury. Will she make it 5 for 5? Only 3 people in either the F5 or the jury have never voted for the winner. #Survivor #Survivor50
I'm pretty sure that Rizo has never attended a tribal council up to the F5 without holding an idol - 15/15. Rizo is 3rd on the list of players who have held at least 1 idol at tribal council. Ozzy is 1st with 19 tribals, and Tai is 2nd on 18. #Survivor #Survivor50
That's quite a swing from the last episode! For the record, I would still put my money on Aubry winning, but this is why I like looking at these charts, it shows things you may be missing. Jonathan is actually in a good position. But it always comes down to the pitch. #Survivor #Survivor50
Ok, this is kind of interesting. Consensus is that the final 5 vote is one of the most important in the game. I wanted to see how the final 5 vote affects the players' chances of winning. The results are not what you'd expect. ๐งต 1/ #Survivor
Random stat: There have been 7 individual immunities up for grabs, and they have been won by 7 different people. First time in Survivor history. How about that. #Survivor
There's been a shift in the leaderboard with Ozzy voted out. Aubry now has the best odds, followed by Jonathan. I'm still hopeful this is Cirie's season though. #Survivor50
The top 3 players on the CPH chart are now Devens, Cirie, and Jonathan, the only 3 still in the game with a +ve edit. Jonathan has the largest difference between obs and exp. He's had a couple of really good episodes tbh. #Survivor50
5 year old: Dad, can we watch Ghostbusters every day after school like you did when you were a little boy? But you have to say what they say before they say it. Me: Yes ๐ฅน
I *think* (assuming I haven't missed any edge cases or a data descrepency - please reach out if so) the next challenge will be Cirie's 100th! This includes challenges where she sat on the bench. Imagine if she won individual immunity. Huge. #Survivor50
Standings after episode 10. Ozzy is still in the lead. What this means is that all the data points are saying that Ozzy is in a more similar position to players who have won in the past than the other players. #Survivor50 #Survivor
#Survivor50 confessionals/hr At this stage Devens has the largest over-edit wrt to CPH. It's also interesting that Rizo is low given his position. The mean CPH for a winner at episode 10 in the new era is 4.2. All are under, but Ozzy is closest to that benchmark. #Survivor
#RStats Playable Doom! Figured out some key handling stuff in my custom graphics device, so I can now actually control the game! Content Warning: I'm not good at doom :)
With Christian gone, Ozzy has taken top spot on the leaderboard. As expected, Rizo has climbed the ladder and is now in second spot. #Survivor50
Perhaps the only positive for Christian is that he finishes the game with a 100% successful boot percentage by being able to vote for himself. #Survivor50
#Survivor50 episode IMDb ratings A few great episodes and a few real shockers. E1 is the 5th highest rated episode in #survivor history, and E4 is the all-time lowest. The question is, is Mr Beast going to deliver a lower rating than 3.7?
#Survivor50 E9 Confessionals/hr While Ozzy has the highest cph out of those remaining, it's Devens and Jonathan who are the most over-edited, but not by that much #Survivor
Question: Was this a split vote between Christian and Devens? They didn't really show a discussion of a split, at least I didn't pick up on it. #Survivor50
This is a slightly expanded view. Same story though.
Dan Oehm@danoehm.bsky.social ยท 4mo agoSomeone reached out to me for an analysis on whether or not the 1st jury member is more likely to vote for the winner. I understand there was some discussion about this, but I haven't seen/heard anything, so coming in fresh. Here's what the numbers mean ๐งต 1/ #Survivor #Survivor50
Random stat - Cirie has made the jury 4 times and voted for the winner all 4 times, which includes voting for Parvati twice. #Survivor #Survivor50
Someone reached out to me for an analysis on whether or not the 1st jury member is more likely to vote for the winner. I understand there was some discussion about this, but I haven't seen/heard anything, so coming in fresh. Here's what the numbers mean ๐งต 1/ #Survivor #Survivor50
Back from a few nights camping and caught up with the latest episode of #Survivor50 - Double the Demise, Half the Fun... or something like that. The game/twists aside, this episode sucks from a data perspective. Data is up, and here are some release notes ๐งต 1/ ๐พ github.com/doehm/survivoR
Complete #SurvivorAU Redemption (AU12) data has been delivered. As per usual, any corrections needed, please log an issue on Git and I will correct them asap. ๐พ github.com/doehm/survivoR #Survivor #Rstats
Here are the final votes with the jury. It almost played out as expected. Only Cameron voted differently. #SurvivorAU
