Dan Weir
@danweir.bsky.social
Research and Policy Manager at moneyandmentalhealth.org Rapier Instructor at londonhistoricalfencing.club Hereditary Crystal Palace fan Mostly just musing here. Views my own, reposts not endorsements etc He/Him
So, conceptually I liked the idea of the Archer story where it turns out Alaska was only leased to Russia and the lease is about to run out. Unfortunately, having found a copy (on a shelf when I moved into my current house), it turns out to be quite dull.
A lot of childcare entitlement policy is a bit weird. This is not related to the 30 free hours pledge being something the Tories came up with during the 2015 election campaign to beat Labour's 25 hours pledge, had no idea how to fund and assumed they'd trade away in a coalition agreement somehow.
Morgan GD@morgangd.com · 3d agoAll this time I've been thinking the £100k cliff edge was a combined family allowance and figured it made some sense - 50k each isnt *that* unimaginable in London/SE Apparently its that neither parent can earn over 100k? Pay for your own damn childcare.
The thing that gets me about these lurid anti-Zionist statements, like the one the Greens just passed, is that it is *so fucking easy* to criticise the Israeli government without engaging in that type of language.
Unemployment among young people is a big issue! Morally as well as economically. But you solve that by tackling mental health and looking at why the jobs aren't there for this cohort, not by treating adults like overgrown kids and going "yeah, you're your parents responsibility, kthxbai"
According to Electoral Calculus, this would put Labour in majority territory 20ish seats. I'm a little sceptical that Reform would end up this far ahead of the Tories in an actual election though. If you swapped their numbers you end up with a 50 seat Labour majority and Reform on 30 seats.
Laura Phillips@lauraphillips.bsky.social · last wk.NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 29% (+2) RFM 23% (-1) CON 19% (-2) LD 9% (-2) GRN 9% (+2) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 1% (-1) OTH 4% (=) F/w 29 September 2026. Changes vs 23/09/2026
Think these changes are basically noise. What's happened? +4 to Reform so I'd guess 2 from the Tories, 1 from Restore and 1 from Labour. Labour pick up 2 from the Greens, and the leftover is a rounding error.
Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · last wk.Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 25% (+4) LAB: 24% (+1) CON: 19% (-2) LDM: 12% (=) GRN: 11% (-3) RES: 3% (-1) SNP: 2% (=) Via @yougov.co.uk, 27-28 Sep. Changes w/ 20-21 Sep.
Being released on bail in England doesn't usually involve a financial security or bond. I think technically it can, but it's not standard practice. But because it's used in America people assume it's the same system here.
I doubt it'll work out this way, but it'd be interesting if you could get to a state where there's cross-party agreement on what the new service will look like, and you even get a lot of the ground work done to build it - then fight the general election on how you fund it.
Jim Pickard@pickardje.bsky.social · 2w agoam I going mad or did Andy Burnham just tell Laura Kuenssberg that he won’t reform social care this parliament and it’ll merely be a manifesto pledge in 2029?
This is a good point. We need to stop treating AI bots as if they are autonomous beings.
Jared Yates Sexton@jysexton.bsky.social · 2w agoJust helping with editing here. These bots aren’t sentient. They’re doing what they’re programmed to do. OpenAI, a private company supposedly bound by laws, committed federal crimes.
Important caveat: ministers love to say benefit claimants shouldn’t be “written off” and it’s vital 16-24 year olds with significant physical disabilities aren’t dismissed. Some will want and be able to work but need specialist support and genuine opportunities, alongside the financial protection.
OK and this is what's going to get me to delete my Facebook account at last.
In a surprise move, Manchester City has declared its candidacy for President of the United States.
Someone has been playing bagpipes within earshot of my house for the last couple of hours.
You have to talk to people you don't like. That is what diplomacy is. You can't do diplomacy if you only talk to your friends. Very occasionally, isolating a country diplomatically might be a smart move, but it's a tactical tool, not a moral imperative.
Henry Mance@henrymance.ft.com · 2w agoSorry, what? Diplomats talk to each other. Miliband has also spoken to his Israeli counterpart. The French foreign minister also met Araghchi this week. X is such a sewer of bad, motivated takes.
I pay less attention to the legal world these days and I'd somehow missed the Chancery division being renamed. While in fact, it's a good idea to call things what they are instead of using obfuscating language, my inner legal historian does feel a bit sad about this.
Joshua Rozenberg@joshuarozenberg.bsky.social · 2w agoTen new High Court judges have been appointed by the King — including some direct appointments to the court’s new Business and Property division, which replaces the Chancery division in a week’s time. rozenberg.substack.com/p/new-judges...
I'm not sure what concessions Badenoch thinks Cameron made to the Lib Dems.
John Rentoul@rentouljohn.bsky.social · 2w agoAnd she says there might be another election soon after that
While I think the spring is more likely, an early election is a real possibility. I also think Badenoch's approach to Burnham is interesting. It is not in her interests for Reform to take a load of seats from Labour. She actually needs him to do fairly well.
John Rentoul@rentouljohn.bsky.social · 2w agoKemi Badenoch tells @iaindale.bsky.social @lbc.co.uk she thinks Andy Burnham will hold an election in December: “Andy Burnham is a gambler. I think he might fancy his chances”
Jolly good show.
Anti-Reform@antireform.bsky.social · 2w ago"Fantastic news Latest records show that RNLI donations have increased by 5000% over the past couple of weeks after far-right backlash. The RNLI is on track to record its highest annual fundraising total in its almost 200-year history" via Daniel Lismore Donate here rnli.org/support-us/g...
The centre right never believed the warnings from the left that the radical right was still present in their movement. It's true the left sometimes cries wolf - but at the end of that story, there was a wolf.
Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 2w agoAs I have written many times the demise of the centre-right is the most important global political trend of our times.
Thinking of buying a flat in the near future. What is this bollocks?
I feel like there might be an interesting intersection here with people who don't realise that the US style waitress is being paid to be friendly to them and it's not real. Or who believe the claims of adverts as much as they do a documentary. Or who develop a lot of parasocial realtionships.
Marie Le Conte@youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 3w agothink what's interesting about this too is that I have no sense of how others feel about this - we're clearly in a minority on this website by being stridently anti-AI, but does that really mean other people don't.....meaningfully care about the phenomenon below? I find that so weird to contemplate!
90 years ago, Parliament responded to the rise of Oswald Mosley's Blackshirts by passing the Public Order Act, which banned political uniforms, private militias and the threat of force for political objects. The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵)
Chucked the RNLI a small donation today. I hope they're getting a good surge of much-needed support right now.
Charles Fourier@charlesfourier.bsky.social · 4w agoBill Bryson’s words seem appropriate to post right now
I get the sense that at least some in the Labour camp think that with Reform's troubles and migration numbers coming down, the hard right has peaked and will whither away. I think that's wrong.
Laura Gordon@lauragordon.bsky.social · last mo.This government reminds me of Joe Biden. Biden didn't want to be the prosecute Trump president, he wanted to pass an infrastructure bill. Burnham doesn't want to be the take on the hard right PM, he wants to do social care reform and devo. But you have to do the task you're set or face disaster.
I have never felt more opposed to politically elected police commissioners than now.
TV conspiracies: we’ve hacked their computers but they’ve perfectly cleaned up the evidence! Real conspiracies: To: conspirator From: famous person Attachment: evidence.png
