Ian Dunt

@iandunt.bsky.social

Journalist. Author. Podcaster. Liberal extremist.

Nigel Farage just took a question from a 'journalist' at his press conference, who turned out to be his former chief adviser Raheem Kassam, who asks him why the media are being so unfair to him

It’s long been clear that Reform is beatable – Farage’s terrible personal ratings, toxic brand, mass tactical voting against them. The narrative that victory for them is inevitable was based on superficial analysis + wishful thinking on the right.

Fascinating change in BBC news bulletins about Reform. Farage announcement on small boats only gets the third spot and is balanced by critics saying he's trying to distract from allegations over his finances. Quite the change from the uncritical coverage earlier this year.

Not sure I agree with this. Firstly, counterfactual arguments are not very convincing (if the situation wss very different then x…) and, secondly, in this case, the specific counterfactual is surely Cleverly and its not at all obvious he wouldn’t have done a better job.

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 4d ago

As I say in this thread from our groups and polling I think Badenoch leadership critics ignore the counterfactual of not badenoch when the party could have collapsed entirely. In other words I think she might be inlynthing holding them at ~20%. bsky.app/profile/luke...

Glad someone senior from the sector is pushing back. Labour MPs need to understand the serious real anger from graduates and the people who produce them. And the dangerous financial situation they have allowed to fester, or indeed worsened, in one of Britain’s leading sectors.

Labour has harmed universities as much as Trump, London School of Economics head says

LSE vice-chancellor Larry Kramer points to domestic student fees freeze, international student limits and rise in employers’ national insurance

ft.com

This statement by UEFA on FIFA attempting to sell off the World Cup gave me goosebumps, what a statement - the beautiful game deserves no less “As so long as Europe has a voice, it will never be for sale.”

BildBild

The Farage drop is, I think, potentially more consequential medium term than the Burnham bounce (which will fade I'm sure). Reform are a one man band, built around Farage's brand. If he becomes toxic (a) he might quit politics (as he has before) (b) whether he does or not they have no plan B.

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 6d ago

Latest leader approvals 🌹Burnham bumps up to +19, 8 higher than Keir’s high of 11. 🌳Badenoch down slightly to break even 🔶Davey drops back to -11 💚Polanski is at -24 ➡️Farage drops to another low, by far his lowest since the election at -32

Exempting care workers from new ILR rules would make a big difference. Most told 15 years would lose their legal status long before that. This deal with three-quarters of that. But 250k people still could lose status if chefs, lab technicians not exempt too. www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcar...

Foreign care workers could be exempt from tough new visa rules

Andy Burnham is considering an exception to Shabana Mahmood’s reforms that increase the timeline for permanent residence from five to 15 years

thetimes.com

But Burnham deserves credit for -unlike Starmer - immediately realising that Mahmood's proposals to effectively expel hundreds of thousands of care workers would not win a single vote back from Reform at the same time as alienating anyone with a shred of decency.

Doing the papers on Sky tonight, 8pm-10pm. I'm so used to going there full of despair and irritation that it feels weird to do so feeling upbeat about the day's developments. Very much doubt I'll be allowed to get used to this, but I'd like to.

Burnham's comments today were a kind of anti-populism: a rejection of easy answers, an acknowledgment of trade-offs and a commitment to solve seemingly-intractable problems. Early days, but incredibly refreshing.