America's Jewish neighborhoods - both Hasidic and non-Hasidic - are trending fast toward Republicans while similar non-Jewish precincts matched on demographics like education and income have trended toward the Democrats

One of the hardest problems in politics is that people who are capable eloquently organize their thoughts and perspectives in writing are really weird and unrepresentative! This is true between groups but also is even more true *within* groups

Omar Wasow@owasow.bsky.social · 3mo ago

“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/

We're hiring Machine Learning Scientists for our election forecasting team! Our election forecasting team works with the largest collection of political data ever assembled and helps allocate billions of dollars in resources - it's a pretty cool job - come work with us! grnh.se/uok4eeeh4us

Just to emphasize how bad of a hole the Trump Administration is in right now, gas price approval this morning literally plummeted so far we had to fix the Y axis of this chart.

We conducted a bunch of polling on the red-blue button dilemma. Highlights: 1) Blue beats red by a 3:1 margin 2) Red button pushers report being less empathetic and higher frequency of anti-social behavior 3) Red button pushers are more supportive of Luigi Mangione controlling for ideology

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI! AI today is less important than it will ever be. Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

Jewish/Muslim segregation in Israel is unlike anything seen anywhere in the US within living memory. Israeli Jews are ~7x more likely to have zero Muslim neighbors than white Americans are to have zero Black neighbors — for Israeli Muslims vs Black Americans, it's ~78x.

New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2). Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him. No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.

One of the insights of @davidshor.bsky.social is that a party or movement can take an unpopular issue and run with it and make it popular among its own voters, getting from 15% support to 45% support, it just can't get over 50% that way. (This is more or less happening re Venezuela.)

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Net-Approval For Taking Greenland By Force: 🔴 All: -72% 🔴 Democrats: -94% 🔴 Independents: -80% 🔴 Republicans: -40% 🔴 Black: -86% 🔴 White: -70% 🔴 Hispanic: -66% 🔴 Women: -78% 🔴 Men: -66% YouGov / Jan 16, 2026

Do you support or oppose new AI data centers being built in your local community? 31% support, 44% oppose Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%? 59% support 18% oppose

We recently tested ~ a dozen public statements from a diverse set of Democratic elected officials on the murder of Renee Good and this was the top testing one

Acyn@acyn.bsky.social · 7mo ago

AOC: I want everybody to understand that the cuts to your health care are what’s paying for this. You get screwed over to pay a bunch of thugs in the street that are shooting mothers in the face.

When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points. The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI. N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10

Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids. Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic. Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.

This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.

David Shor@davidshor.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS Check it out! bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...

Really excited I got to talk to @bharatramamurti.bsky.social about what the polling says about AI, people’s intuitions of fairness in a hypothetical post scarcity world, and most controversially what I think about PRICE CONTROLS Check it out! bharatramamurti.substack.com/p/a-conversa...

A Conversation with David Shor of Blue Rose Research

What public opinion tells us about AI, affordability, and more

bharatramamurti.substack.com

Young voters are now 3x as likely to report having been estranged from their parents for an extended period of time than voters over the age of 65. Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.

Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple all have very high net favs, Nvidia is unknown, Tesla is unpopular, Meta is somewhere in between "Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties

The issue landscape has changed dramatically over the last year - Democrats successfully have simultaneously raised the salience and expanded our trust advantage on our best issue (healthcare) *and* dramatically improved our trust advantage on the cost of living and the economy

David Shor@davidshor.bsky.social · last yr.

Trump was just as unpopular going into November as he was in 2020. What changed this cycle is Democrats' massive favorability decline and Republicans trust advantages on the issues that mattered most to voters this cycle (the economy/inflation/cost of living).

David Shor: "[Zohran Mamdani] ran the most economically focused campaign of any politician that I can remember maybe since Barack Obama in 2012." #crookedcon2025

Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE! x.com/alimortell/s...

Ali Mortell on X: ".@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv" / X

.@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv

x.com

Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...

WATCH LIVE: The 2025 Hutchins Forum

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

youtube.com

Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat. These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.

Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads. Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!

Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander! His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!

@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is a great example of how far you can go if you genuinely center your campaign in an engaging way around the issue that voters overwhelmingly say in surveys they care the most about www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...

NYC is Suffering from Halalflation

YouTube video by Zohran Mamdani for NYC

youtube.com

Excited to signal boost @shiraamitchell.bsky.social and @ccgilroy.bsky.social 's response to the @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social and Caroline Soler's critiques of our estimates of Harris support among non-voters and youth voters. Our main points:

shira mitchell@shiraamitchell.bsky.social · last yr.

New post: "Struggles with surveying nonvoters and young voters" statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/05/16/s...

Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled

Ro Khanna@rokhanna.bsky.social · last yr.

It is absurd that Palo Alto School district just voted to remove honors biology for all students & already removed honors English. They call it de-laning. I call it an assault on excellence. I took many honors classes at Council Rock High in PA.

If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th! lu.ma/dugt12v6