I have 7 papers being presented at IC2S2 (of which I will personally present 2): please ping me if you want to meet up at the Conference.

Kalshi and PolyMarket are scary: they are creating massive transfer of wealth from many small accounts to a few big accounts, provide little informational value, while ripe for insider trading & manipulations. But, smaller information-oriented prediction markets can be very useful.

David Rothschild@davmicrot.bsky.social · last wk.

Here is my comment on the CFTC's proposed prediction market rules www.regulations.gov/comment/CFTC... CFTC's proposal largely codifies & protects large sports-focused prediction markets (and the massive societal risks they create), while disadvantaging beneficial smaller information-oriented markets

Here is my comment on the CFTC's proposed prediction market rules www.regulations.gov/comment/CFTC... CFTC's proposal largely codifies & protects large sports-focused prediction markets (and the massive societal risks they create), while disadvantaging beneficial smaller information-oriented markets

To the everlasting shame of our democracy, Academic & Business & Media Elite punish anyone for being openly pro-democratic. Major institutions & Elites that run them treat pro-democracy as unserious & dangerous. They consider neutrality the serious & safe route despite neutrality being collaboration

Corporate Media: Democrats don't approve of Democratic senators because they are too left, they need to move to the center! Reality: Democrats don't approve of Democratic senators because of this 👇

Kate Riga@kateriga.bsky.social · 3w ago

Durbin came to talk to us after meeting w Todd Blanche - said Blanche said "I made a mistake" about the weaponization fund. Durbin asked for assurances that the admin won't interfere in the midterms — says Blanche said "we won't." Also seemed pretty sure that there aren't many swayable Republicans

So, how many Trump coins do you need to buy from Trump for the US Navy to escort your ship through the Strait of Hormuz?

Justin Baragona@justinbaragona.bsky.social · 3w ago

"I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States." Yeah, he's just making it up as he goes along. It's the normal Trump rule -- he's just trying to get through the next 10 minutes.

ICE & DHS basically saying they keep shooting unarmed & terrified immigrants because they want all immigrants (legal or undocumented) to be terrified: some people are reading into as this as ICE & DHS making a mistake, but I see unaccountable thugs assuming they can literally get away with murder.

The best story ICE could make up, after 12 hours, is that ICE agents shot someone in the head because they believed the person they shot, who was not accused of any crime, was a different person also not accused of any crime, and so "public safety" required killing them on the spot.

Bill Grueskin@bgrueskin.bsky.social · 3w ago

It took DHS 12 hours to come up with this statement, And the best they could come up with is that ICE shot and killed an unarmed man who didn’t present a threat to the agents. They know they fucked this one up. And it’ll be up to state and local prosecutors—not the feds—to make the case

Honestly a little shocked Trump did not demand one of his children, or a horse, as a show of power over senate Republicans.

Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social · 3w ago

CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) — South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appoints Lindsey Graham’s sister to serve remainder of his Senate term.

Naked disdain Media & Political Elite, both Republican & Democratic, have for Democratic voters is insane.

Even Trump's absurdist pipe-dreams are way worse for all stakeholders than what we had when he started all of this.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3w ago

Trump: "The USA will be, from this point forward, known as 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,' but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security ... "

Dangerous equilibrium where Republican Elite trash Democrats (both Elite & civilians), even when they die, even the very best of US, with no accountability. But, Democratic Elite are meant to beatify Republicans (both Elite & civilians), especially when they die, even the very worst of US.

"Lindsey Graham collaborated against US the right way." -Ezra Klein <sarcasm emoji>

Fortunate for Lindsey Graham that literally the only people in the world that respected him are the editors of Corporate Media.

Corporate Media presents US a fantasy world (where are institutions are holding and MAGA Republicans represent the views of "Real Americans") that is completely disconnected from both reality and their consumers.

Yankees really needed that 4 game winning streak heading into the All-Star break.

Which for Vox founder is more dangerous for democracy: Ezra "normalized & amplify every right-wing extremist" Klein OR Matt "Democrats should back whatever the Republicans make popular with white males" Yglesias?

Bernie was also propped-up on a bed at some point during his infamous weekend.

Axios@axios.com · 3w ago

JUST IN: McConnell breaks weeks of silence about his hospitalization

I assume soccer fans all their favorite refs, corrupt officials, and VAR machines that they back for each tournament? Seems like all they talk about between matches!

The tone of this, too — the eye-rolling, soft-smirking, “anyone who disagrees with me is just an ignorant child” tone — is so emblematic of a pundit class that mistakes deference to power for maturity and sees the willingness to speak truth as gross naïveté.

Daniel Drezner@dandrezner.bsky.social · 3w ago

My hot take is that Lindsey Graham did many contemptible things but if you’re furious that his Senate Democratic colleagues are posting nice things about him today you need to put down your phone, get some fresh air, and remember a time when a colleague you disliked departed this mortal coil.

Jefferson Davis & I did not always agree politically, but I really respected him as a colleague & friend. I am always reaching across the aisle to collaborate with anyone, because bipartisanship is what makes the senate great. When you put it that way, it sounds insane, because it is insane.

Nice to see all these Democratic leaders hopping on right-wing extremist Republican platform to express their love & admiration for key right-wing extremist Republican collaborator. Democratic leaders really seem to understand their voters' deep desire for bipartisanship above US <sarcasm emoji>

Media & Political Elites will demand civility for the dead over accountability for coloration because basically all of our Media & Political Elite are collaborators.

Lindsey Graham was one of the main subjects of a @theatlantic.com cover story I wrote in 2020, on why people collaborate with regimes they know are immoral. Here's a gift link: www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

History Will Judge the Complicit

Why have Republican leaders abandoned their principles in support of an immoral and dangerous president?

theatlantic.com

"Tributes Pour In for Senator Lindsey Graham", then a dramatic blank space on the landing page of NYT.

NYT does care about its journalists being harassed by FBI because it gives them credibility with pro-democratic majority while they continue to normalize Trump's authoritarianism. If Trump went after AG Sulzberger XXVII's intergenerational-wealth then there would be a screaming headline.

David Rothschild@davmicrot.bsky.social · 4w ago

Trump raised (tariffs) & spent (Doge) our taxes AND started multiple absurd wars (Iran & Venezuela) without congress. He sent paramilitary to terrorize civilians (Minneapolis). Stole upward of $10 billion between crypto & real-estate & planes. He has crushed universities & silenced Corporate Media.

Trump raised (tariffs) & spent (Doge) our taxes AND started multiple absurd wars (Iran & Venezuela) without congress. He sent paramilitary to terrorize civilians (Minneapolis). Stole upward of $10 billion between crypto & real-estate & planes. He has crushed universities & silenced Corporate Media.

Peter Baker@peterbakernyt.bsky.social · 4w ago

"The appearance of federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/b...

NYT should read: "Trump Uses FBI to Squash Free Press on Fallout of $1.4 billion Bribe" That would be objective and informative, with the appropriate level of alarm. This measly measured article they wrote normalizes and validates both the bribes and attacks on free speech.

Trump takes $400 million bribe (plane) from foreign country. Made US pay $1 billion to update bribe for him. Bribe not usable to until he is out-of-office, which NYT reports on (publicly obvious as he does not use it). Trump sends FBI to scare reporters. NYT writes deliberately measured article.

Going to be wild when we inevitably find out McConnell is in coma (or dead) and all of these top Republican Elite (including Senate Majority Leaders) confidently claimed they had coherent conversations with him. They justifiably assume Corporate Media will once again fail to hold them to account.