Six weeks separate Andy Burnham's pledge to rewire the state from his declaration that he leads "a government grounded in fiscal responsibility". The captain changed; the course did not. #UKPolitics #UKEconomy #PublicFinance https://vincegomez.com/articles/changing-captain-or-changing-course/

Changing Captain or Changing Course?

Andy Burnham walked into Downing Street on 20 July promising to rewire the state. Six weeks later, at his first Prime Minister's Questions, he described what he now leads as "a government grounded in fiscal responsibility".¹ 

vincegomez.com

“Take economic planning away from the Treasury. They know nothing about it.” Aneurin Bevan, 1951. Seventy-five years later, this has aged remarkably well.

Tapping the nation's credit card while the bailiffs are at the door" says Mel Stride. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202... Name the bailiff. Also, the £3 trillion is the pensions, insurance funds and Premium Bonds the rest of us hold. Be careful what you wish for. vincegomez.com/articles/if-...

If We "Paid Off" the National Debt, There Would Be No Money Left

Politicians of all parties have spent decades telling the British public that the national debt is a burden on future generations, a reckless legacy we are imposing on our children and grandchildren. ...

vincegomez.com

In 1946 Britain's debt stood near 250% of GDP. Bread was still rationed. Within two years the government had opened the NHS and launched the largest house building programme in its history. Today, at just under 95%, ministers say that we cannot afford to do anything close to this. Why?

Wynne Godley argued in 1992 that a currency union without a shared budget would end badly, and warned years ahead that US growth was resting on private borrowing that could not last. His main tool was a table. Here is what one is, and who he was: vincegomez.com/data/?tab=go...

The FT's "Six foolish mistakes for the UK's new chancellor to avoid", out today, earns a Grade E: FAIL It rightly unmasks Carney's defence bank as borrowing in fancy dress, then builds its whole case on markets "punishing" a currency issuer that cannot be forced to default. #UKEconomy

"The naïve belief in the power of unregulated markets has been tested to destruction. Markets are not the best way of allocating resources; unless they are tightly managed, they allocate more to the richest and less to everyone else." Can We Trust Markets? 99-percent.org/can-we-trust...

Can We Trust Markets? - 99%

Why the world’s largest and most important market is not safe for widows and orphans The claim that markets are the best and most trustworthy way to allocate resources rests […]

99-percent.org

You can have any PM you want, just make sure you don't change the economics... The IMF's 2026 Article IV summary, out yesterday, earns a Grade D AMBER: solid on the mechanics, muddled (meddling?) in the politics.

For over 40 years Britain has told itself one economic story: markets know best, the state must shrink, and there is no alternative. That story has delivered stagnation. The claim that no other framework exists was always political, never economic.

Grade E — FAIL. The OBR's Fiscal Risks and Sustainability 2026, out yesterday, is sharp on the real constraints — ageing, labour supply, productivity — then quietly recasts debt-to-GDP and gilt yields as laws of nature rather than the policy conventions they are. #UKEconomy

No time for the full essay I wrote this week? In 1996 the Nobel laureate William Vickrey took apart the myths behind austerity in eight pages: the household budget, the bond-market fear, the burden on grandchildren. Here are his fifteen fallacies into a summary you can read in a few minutes.

Fifteen fatal fallacies of financial fundamentalism: A disquisition on demand-side economics

Much of the conventional economic wisdom prevailing in financial circles, largely subscribed to as a basis for governmental policy, and widely accepted by the media and the public, is based on incom- ...

vincegomez.com

Grade F: A piece in CityAM this week — "Andy Burnham will be 'in hock' to the bond markets whether he likes it or not" — earns a FAIL, roughly 16/100. The central muddle: treating bond-market sentiment as a force of nature binding a currency issuer, rather than a set of institutional choices.

We will soon have a new chancellor, one the bond markets will tolerate. 30yrs ago a Nobel laureate showed that fear is empty, then died 3 days after winning and was quietly ignored. Meet William Vickrey, the most interesting Nobel laureate you've never heard of.

The Fallacies That Outlived Their Refutation

vincegomez.com

Grade F: Hard Fail. A piece in yesterday's Guardian on Andy Burnham's tax plans earns a score of 18/100, built on the idea that a sovereign currency issuer must "make ends meet" like a household before the bond markets grant it permission to govern. #UKEconomy

Here's another way to alert your MP. actionnetwork.org/letters/ask-...

Ask your MP to future-proof our democracy

What Trump's administration is doing to dismantle US democracy could happen here. We must future-proof our constitution to prevent that. I've just asked my MP to attend a parliamentary briefing on wh...

actionnetwork.org

Grade E: Fail — treat with strong scepticism. The Conversation ran a piece yesterday on bond markets as a "force in modern politics" that rests on one inverted premise: "those markets are what make it possible for governments to spend money." A sterling issuer spends first; the gilts come after.

Britain has three watchdogs counting pounds and not one asking whether the economy can actually deliver the goods. #UKEconomy #PublicFinance https://vincegomez.com/articles/the-institution-britain-is-missing/

The Institution Britain Is Missing

We run three bodies to count the money and none to assess whether the economy can do the work.

vincegomez.com

Last week's FT, "Governments need to learn how to talk about debt," earns a Grade F — Fail - treat its claims with strong scepticism. Technically fluent, conceptually orthodox: it treats a currency issuer's books like a household budget and bond-market sentiment as a law of physics. #UKEconomy

The threats to UK democracy have never been clearer. And there are signs that our politicians may now be ready to take them seriously. sh1.sendinblue.com/3ga6vb62bglp...

The Telegraph warns this weekend that Labour "may need help from the IMF" — Grade F, Fail. The piece runs entirely on a false scarcity frame, telling us that a sterling-issuing government may need to go to the IMF to obtain that which it creates. #UKEconomy

A TALE OF TWO BANKS Food banks and commercial banks seem to have nothing in common, except they’re both booming – and surprisingly connected. frapacioli.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...

As an economist, former FT journalist and now Labour MP, l don’t think the bond markets have to fear a change of Labour leadership. The biggest problem for gilt investors and MPs alike is inflation – & it remains our common enemy. My @financialtimes.com op-ed 👇 (1/5) www.ft.com/content/2a64...

Politicians and the bond markets: lost in translation

Mutual misunderstanding and panicky commentary mask a joint desire to see the UK economy doing better

ft.com

This week’s letter has details of an important (free) webinar on protecting UK democracy, and analyses the comments of a deluded former Prime Minister. sh1.sendinblue.com/3ga2nlu2bglp...

Leaving the ECHR, will weaken protections for all in society. That’s the end goal. Then they will usher in freeports, SEZ’s, data centres, zero hours contracts, no employment protections, state surveillance. All in the name of protecting us. When we already have protections…

“It is the Bank of England’s sabre rattling at its last two meetings that has unsettled bond markets - not the assumed, & still uncertain election of a left-wing candidate to challenge the leadership of the Labour Party.” - @annpettifor.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/annpetti...

Phantoms, Left-Wing Candidates, ‘Febrile Conditions’ in Bond Markets… and President Petro's Fight Against the Central Bank of Colombia

On central bankers, bond markets and the heated and irrational campaign to block the election of a progressive politician

open.substack.com

Our new report 'Russian Interference in British Politics' warns UK is dangerously unprepared for foreign interference in elections. We’re calling for a public inquiry into foreign interference in UK politics & stronger democratic safeguards. Full report: tinyurl.com/OB-RI-Report

Grade E - Fail. The FT runs Charles Goodhart today on demography and "unsustainable" fiscal positions. The real-resource analysis is alluded to. The flaw: a currency-issuing sovereign is treated throughout as if it could run out of money like a household or a foreign-currency borrower.

Thread (1/38) Three Baseless Taboos are Derailing National Renewal

The Telegraph, yesterday: "Don't bite the hand that really backs the UK bond market" earns a Grade E Fail rating — treat with strong scepticism. My model notes the articles' "novel analytical frame". I think it may be developing a sense of humour.

Last week, the IFS (Helen Miller) told Radio 4's Today programme, approvingly, that "the government has been delivering its promised consolidation… and that is due to continue under current government plans…"