Our exclusive report on Russia’s tank production is out. Using internal files and state contracts, we show production plans for the next decade and current output. A short thread will follow soon, but for now, you can read the report frontelligence.substack.com/p/exclusive-inside-russias-20262036

Exclusive: Inside Russia’s 2026–2036 Tank Fleet Modernization and Buildup Plans

In the spring and summer of 2025, as part of our own operation, our team obtained exclusive documents that provide new insight into Russia’s tank-production plans and confirm the existence of a little...

frontelligence.substack.com

Russia launches 500+ Shahed drones at Ukraine every few days. If Ukraine had tomahawk missiles, Ukraine could destroy the factory in Tatarstan that has the capacity to produce 2,700 of them monthly.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 10mo ago

MORE: The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear.🧵 (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar100525

Current Trump Administration policy is not working. Putin is emboldened. He will not stop unless we stop him.

"Reducing US military aid to Ukraine will neither lead to a sustainable peace in Ukraine nor compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to reassess his theory of victory" understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Maxar collected images of before / after damage to Russian aircraft as a result of Operation Spiderweb. This is not a comprehensive view of the damage. Cloud cover obscured several of the other Russian airbases that were reportedly also struck by drones. 📷 @Maxar

Ukraine demonstrated that it can cause strategic effects using FPV drones. Small UAS are not confined to the tactical level of warfare. Tremendous operation.

Same energy.

Euromaidan Press@euromaidanpress.bsky.social · last yr.

Trump to Putin: "Vladimir, STOP! Let's get the peace deal DONE!" This came in response to a massive overnight Russian attack on Ukrainian cities, which killed eight civilians in Kyiv only. Earlier, Trump claimed Russia was interested in ending the war, unlike Zelenskyy.

There are things the US can do to *make* Vladimir stop. Putin has vulnerabilities we are either overlooking or choosing not to leverage. Putin is banking on the US letting Russia off the hook despite Russia's own precarious position

The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process. The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: The Kremlin is using surge pricing for enlistment bonuses to recruit additional volunteers and attempt to sustain Russia's protracted war effort in Ukraine. Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025: isw.pub/RussianForce... More key takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/11)

1/ Today's occupation update focuses heavily on Russia's efforts to deport Ukrainian children and teens to Russia and expose them to Russification programs. I discuss how programs such as "University Shifts" and "Cultural Map 4+85" are just a small part of a much larger ecosystem ⬇️

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Russian officials continue to advertise programs that deport and Russify Ukrainian children and teenagers. Read more in the April 17 Russian Occupation Update from @karolinahird.bsky.social: isw.pub/OccupationUp...

Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023. www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e... A quick 🧵on Popov:

Russian general ousted after criticizing military top brass to return to battle – in charge of notorious unit of ex-convicts | CNN

One of Russia’s most outspoken generals, sacked and detained after a withering attack on the Defense Ministry two years ago, is returning to the front, according to his lawyer.

cnn.com

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Putin condemned former 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA] Commander Major General Ivan Popov to command a penal assault detachment in Ukraine — a demotion and effectively a death sentence — after Popov publicly appealed to Putin for his reinstatement to active military duty. isw.pub/SpecialRepor...

Interesting footage of Russian forces' tactical training to defeat FPV drone threats using shotguns. Russian sport skeet shooters are helping instruct Russian soldiers learn how to hit fast-moving targets with shotguns.

Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return. Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans, by ISW Deputy Russia Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome

Satellite imagery collected on March 21 shows damage from Ukrainian strikes on storage facilities at Russia’s Engels airbase. An ammunition & weapons storage area on the airbase's NE edge was damaged. Destroyed buildings & storage bunkers with craters are visible. Image Maxar Technologies

Waiting for Moscow to offer one (1) concession.

Jürgen Nauditt@juergennauditt.bsky.social · last yr.

Keith Kellogg was suspended from the peace talks at Russia's request due to his pro-Ukrainian stance. — NBC News James Hewitt, spokesman for the National Security Council, said Kellogg remains "a valuable part of the team, particularly as we negotiate with European allies."

Available evidence from the battlefield does not indicate any Russian encirclements of Ukrainian forces at scale, and certainly not by the thousands.

You're falling for Kremlin language and mind games if you think Putin's statement means he accepted the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire deal. Putin actually rejected the terms of President Trump's proposal and is now trying to change the proposal's substance.

The Kremlin is not responding enthusiastically to the US-Ukraine proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.

hromadske@hromadske.bsky.social · last yr.

Russia is studying the statements following the talks between the Ukrainian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia. However, Russia does not want to "get ahead of ourselves" regarding the ceasefire agreed to by Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian journalists.

The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient is noteworthy.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Russian forces are collapsing the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast following several days of intensified Russian activity in the area. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar030925

Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace. This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated. Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes. Russia has offered zero.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW: Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenss by increasing the total number of Shahed and decoy drones in each strike.(🧵1/11) More: isw.pub/UkrWar030725

Russia is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine. Not Ukraine. The proper strategy should be to erode Russia's leverage and grant Ukraine leverage until peace talks. Not the other way around.

Terrible decision. Cutting intel sharing will grant Russian forces enhanced protection at the operational level. Russian battlefield gains have been dropping since late 2024, but this stands to help Russia rebuild lost momentum.

Financial Times@financialtimes.com · last yr.

FT Exclusive: The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces. www.ft.com/content/c58f...

For the 58th time in two weeks: Europe, stop freaking out over every crazy thing Trump says. He will keep saying crazy things every day, and he changes his mind constantly. Focus on what YOU are going to do to advance Ukrainian victory and undermine Russia.

Interesting things are happening in Toretsk.

Belarus has ratified an agreement that will allow Russia to build military bases / installations in Belarus, permanently expanding Russia's forward presence on NATO's Eastern flank. Not surprising. I've been forecasting such a development for years. tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...

Since minerals in Ukraine have become relevant for the policy debate, our interactive control of terrain map of Ukraine now includes Ukrainian minerals. Clicking on a mineral tells the user what it is. storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7...

Block aid, argue that aid doesn't matter, blame all issues on Ukrianian underperformance vs Western lag and under-resourcing, etc.

Sam (ABeardedPanda)@abeardedpanda.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm already seeing the same people who spent the better part of the last 3 years trying to block aid to Ukraine posture about how we're stabbing them in the back

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW | Fact Sheet: Istanbul Protocol Draft Document of April 15, 2022: isw.pub/IstanbulFact...

Any peace deal starting from the basis of the 2022 Istanbul protocols must be a non-starter.

Institute for the Study of War@thestudyofwar.bsky.social · last yr.

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.🧵 (1/9)

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.🧵 (1/9)