Charlotte Swasey
@charlotteeffect.bsky.social
Data witch for good causes and bad datasets
🚨 New Searchlight research, shared first with @mollytaft.com and WIRED, finds MORE THAN 100 planned data centers in rural America will be eligible for new tax benefits starting next year. www.wired.com/story/rural-...
Rural Data Centers Are in for a Big Federal Tax Break
Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, data center projects in rural areas could be eligible for major tax benefits starting next year. Some hyperscalers do not seem eager to take the free cash.
wired.com
New from Searchlight: Voters have a mix of liberal and conservative views, but it's not that they're confused about how issues line up ideologically. You can't fool them about the ideological lean of your policy ideas. www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/vot...
I wrote about the (bad!!!) state of polling for The Argument, and some things I think we can do about it (please god stop posting random polling numbers with no context.) www.theargumentmag.com/p/polling-ha...
Polling has become a playground for grifters, liars, and frauds
I'm a pollster and this is getting ridiculous.
theargumentmag.com
"Essentially, every single poll silently bakes in the pollster’s assumptions about who will show up on Election Day." Searchlight's @charlotteeffect.bsky.social writes in The Argument about how the line between polling and election forecasting has blurred. www.theargumentmag.com/p/polling-ha...
Polling has become a playground for grifters, liars, and frauds
I'm a pollster and this is getting ridiculous.
theargumentmag.com
We hope you've enjoyed taking and sharing our Political Neighborhoods Quiz! @charlotteeffect.bsky.social sat down to react to your results, thoughts, and questions. What neighborhood did you get?
I absolutely promise you we've been saying this from the start, since I can screenshot this out of the mission statement we put up on day one. Just because people are finally getting what we've been saying doesn't mean we haven't been saying it!
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 3w agonotice how these people who were formerly all-in on the mythical power of ideological moderation have changed their tack and entire organizational orientation after discovering the wisdom of the ancients that most voters are not ideological at all. now it’s all about “heterodoxy.”
It's a beautiful day in the political neighborhood — all nine of them. From the Liberal Arts Left to Cul-de-Sac Conservatives, Lawn Sign Liberals to the Center Square. What kind of neighbor are you? Take the quiz! www.searchlightinstitute.org/political-ne...
What’s Your Political Neighborhood?
Answer 16 quick either/or questions about the role of government. There are no right answers, so pick whichever side you lean toward, even if only a little.
searchlightinstitute.org
Here's mine (I literally made this quiz and I'm still a little surprised)
Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 3w agoFind out what political neighborhood you're in! The quiz is short, fun, and I am desperately curious what everyone's results are www.searchlightinstitute.org/political-ne...
Find out what political neighborhood you're in! The quiz is short, fun, and I am desperately curious what everyone's results are www.searchlightinstitute.org/political-ne...
I talk a lot about "heterodoxy", but what does that mean? Well, this, it means this! In collaboration with the NYT, I've got some new data out today www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Maybe I should be more personally excited about these candidates, but I'm really not, they all seem entirely adequate (and that's probably enough this year)
Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 3w agoI'm in the NYT on the midterms again. I know this looks like a dramatic swing but it's really a handful of seats moving a couple points, no need to panic. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
I'm optimistic about the Senate, but I don't buy this uptick in NE polling. Trying to estimate ticket splitting is hard, and trying to do it with an independent candidate is more hard. Plus, this poll is a bit out of step with the rest.
Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social · 3w agoNebraska - Senate Polling: ⚪️Osborn: 46% 🔴Ricketts: 42%* SurveyUSA / Sept 13, 2026 (Trump +20 State) (Current model result in NE-SEN is GOP 48.6% - IND 47%) usapolling.substack.com/p/midterms-a...
I'm in the NYT on the midterms again. I know this looks like a dramatic swing but it's really a handful of seats moving a couple points, no need to panic. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
it's often easier to see why something is a bad idea, electorally, when it is a Republican doing it and not a Democrat
Rob Sand is absolutely doing our approach, thank you very much.
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 4w agoNote on new YouGov poll in Iowa: Dem gov cand Rob Sand, who has spoken out against unlawful deportations, is doing much better against his opponent (+10) than Josh Turek (+4), who has taken the centrist/Third Way/Searchlight talking points on immigration d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/io...
Lads, my library hold on The Dark Forest came in early. This is not what I wanted to follow Book of the New Sun with, there may be a break for some trash in between before I start it.
Many houses look like they're lawful good but they're a secret other thing (doorbell that hasn't worked in 10 years)
Vice Mayor Burhan Azeem@burhanazeem.bsky.social · last mo.After even more extensive canvassing, here is my official door bell tier list (still holding strong from 2021)
The recent claims that the IRA gave Harris 2.5 million votes just don't pass basic sanity checks. As the kids say, the math isn't mathing. www.wordsinsearchlight.org/p/this-is-no...
We have data on this. The blue is all the non-ag human use:
It also incentivizes nationalizing your race. Getting big on social media for being a fighter can be huge for your fundraising, even if it makes no sense for your district. This is how we get Amy McGrath levels of money set on fire in long shot races.
Alan Elrod@aselrod.bsky.social · 2mo agoI think I’m coming more firmly to the conclusion that the small-dollar revolution in political donations has been very bad Not only does it incentivize scamming vulnerable donors, but many of the most ardent small-dollar donors are also the most ideologically extreme. This is especially true for Rs
It's messy- people seem to love the aesthetics of being funded by small donors, but hate the cost (it's *super expensive to do*, here's Platners spending). Personally I'd rather dispense with the hype and cope with less money
James Hell Brooks@kleinman.bsky.social · 2mo agoI'd make a distinction here. It's been good for candidates, full stop. Since 2017 swing seat candidates have been at the very least competitive on money and that's because of ActBlue. But it has created a terrible incentive structure for the ecosystem around them.
The voters have joined the war on Christmas on the side of Christmas?
It turns out talking like a combo of Sephiroth and the villain from a children's cartoon doesn't make voters feel better about your product www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/ame...
This isn't a meaningful claim! What actually happens in a month is something like ~1.1 million men get new jobs, ~1.1 million women get new jobs, ~ million men lose jobs and ~1 million women lose jobs.
Ana Marie Cox@anamariecox.com · 2mo ago"Women accounted for 100 percent of the decline in the labor force in July, according to a National Women’s Law Center analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s latest dismal jobs report. Overall, the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July: Women lost 32,000 jobs, while men gained 9,000."
Voters in general elections are different, demographically, from voters in primaries. But they also have different preferences on issues. cauldronllc.substack.com/p/primary-an...
Primary and General Electorates Are Very Different
A not so gentle reminder as we move into general election season
cauldronllc.substack.com
Primary elections and general elections are different and here's some charts to help remind you of that open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
Primary and General Electorates Are Very Different
A not so gentle reminder as we move into general election season
open.substack.com
Language matters and if you use "steal election" to mean "spent a lot of money" then you are going to have trouble when elections actually get stolen.
VenomousGoatTV@venomousgoat.bsky.social · 2mo agoI have a great deal of contempt for AIPAC but they do not have the power to "steal" an election. Stuffing ballot boxes, changing vote totals, that's election stealing. Convincing people to vote for a candidate via ads and outreach is just an election. The distinction matters
