Doing some extremely preliminary poking at the MI results and the biggest factor seems to be education (although MASSIVE caveat that country demographics dont always match primary electorate demographics!)
Charlotte Swasey
@charlotteeffect.bsky.social
Data witch for good causes and bad datasets
Depending on how this lands, it'll be an interesting example of the gap between online and offline. Twitter/bsky users are not the primary electorate!
Michael Caley@michaelcaley.bsky.social · 20h agoI have no idea if this is what's going on or not but the results tonight are all consistent with my broad belief that Democratic primary voters are scared to death of losing again and as much as they like left/progressive ideas they are fucking terrified of losing again
it's entirely a social media thing but people who polarize themselves into thinking that data analytics are trying to fool you is a bad thing imo
Sharon 🪳🌹@sharonk.bsky.social · 2w agoonce again this discourse remains baffling to me statistics aren't a liberal thing!!!
I'm lucky enough to work with David Bowen who worked on the ACA, smart dude who knows many things about how to actually do healthcare reform. His new piece is worth a read open.substack.com/pub/searchli...
What we mean by ‘health care unity’
A new plan for pragmatic and progressive health care reform
open.substack.com
They should have made this halftime show just Shakira and the muppets
The underlying paper here - whose methods I think are quite dubious and show implausibly large effects - still shows climate as way less persuasive than talking about costs and health care and the economy.
Leah Stokes@leahstokes.bsky.social · 3w agoDemocrats have stopped talking about climate. Strategists say that's smart—but they're wrong. Making climate a top priority wins votes, and barely 1 in 10 voters will vote against climate action. Read all about it in my newsletter, "Notes from the Electric Era." electricnotes.news/p/yes-democr...
Last night was the deadline for quarterly FEC filings, including from the Platner campaign, so I dug into their spending. Most of it went to 2 firms- Helix Campaigns and LC Media open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
I'm in the NYT today with a group of experts writing about my projections for the midterms! Tldr yes of course Democrats are going win the house www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Got a copy of Sublimation from a local bookstore and convinced the person at the register to go read Kim's short stories (probably), successful shopping trip
‘A First-of-Its-Kind’ Poll About Medicare for All A centrist think tank offered to conduct an exclusive poll for Zeteo to gauge Americans’ attitudes about Medicare for All. Here’s what we found: zeteo.com/p/medicare-f...
‘A First-of-Its-Kind’ Poll About Medicare for All
A centrist think tank offered to conduct an exclusive poll for Zeteo to gauge Americans’ attitudes about Medicare for All. Here’s what we found.
zeteo.com
"They’re also preemptively blaming the party for a general election loss, as if 'losing to a highly successful Republican incumbent after your primary dissolved into chaos' is a fun situation the Maine Party chose on purpose."
Charlotte Swasey @charlotteeffect.bsky.social · 4w agoThe shadow of the 2016 primary hangs over every election since, and I am extremely tired of it. We should try having a different argument for once. cauldronllc.substack.com/p/platner-be...
This morning @pollvault.bsky.social found a rare but well done survey that really raises the stakes on consumer confidence: The Meat Demand Monitor www.oklahomafarmreport.com/2026/07/08/d... (cc: @aedwardslevy.bsky.social )
Dr. Glynn Tonsor: June Meat Demand Monitor Shows Signs of Improving Consumer Confidence - Oklahoma Farm Report
In today’s Beef Buzz, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays features comments from Kansas State University agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor about the June Meat Demand Monitor, a monthly survey...
oklahomafarmreport.com
The shadow of the 2016 primary hangs over every election since, and I am extremely tired of it. We should try having a different argument for once. cauldronllc.substack.com/p/platner-be...
Platner, Bernie, and a hangover
Free us from the forever 2016 primary
cauldronllc.substack.com
This sucks man. Grasping at straws to avoid acknowledging that the dude is a creep.
I barely have opinions on the potential replacements for Platner, but everyone should be asking them if they're willing to make a full break from him and the people who elevated him. A replacement candidate unwilling to denounce him would be an electoral disaster.
are any of the 'ohhh sorry is REAL PERSON too much for you apple polishing hall monitor HR ladies' types gonna exhibit any contrition or reflection that the guy with the very obvious red flags did in fact turn out to have extremely serious weaknesses as a candidate?
This graph is super misleading- OF COURSE democratic vote share is higher when the ratio of D to R voters is higher. The second graph uses *average ideological midpoint* between the two parties, not D ideology, and so shows Dems do better when the *midpoint* between the parties is more left.
Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · last mo.A friendly empirical note for those losing it over progressive primary wins: ideological positioning barely explains Democratic vote shares since 2006. Turnout explains a lot. The party can run to the center all it wants. It won’t help if the base doesn’t show up.
The fact that the biggest spenders in CA failed to win their elections despite infinite money is kind of heartening cauldronllc.substack.com/p/the-ca-big...
The CA big spenders learn money has its limits
An exercise in lighting money on fire
cauldronllc.substack.com
New paper by Donahue & Reich, forthcoming in AJS. Using 18 years of Florida voter records, they find Republicans significantly more likely than Democrats to shift Hispanic→White. Democrats more likely to shift White→Hispanic. 1/ www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.... HT @mattgrossmann.bsky.social
this is true but it's true in a different way than people think the report NEVER MENTIONS INFLATION the word "inflation" appears 18 times, but exclusively for "inflation-adjusted" statistics on media spending the report ignores *all* the decisive issues of 2024 www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
There are 50,000 words in the DNC autopsy. 'Gaza" isn't one.
The report appears to omit any policy reasons why some Democratic voters might not have chosen Harris.
motherjones.com
Ehhhh. I don't think that's the right interpretation. There's always going to be pull towards status quo in these questions, I think the real comparison is between the two "move" options
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 3mo agoNote that the 'stay put' + 'move left' percentage outnumbers 'move center' on every issue except crime NYT frames this as "there is a divide in the party over which direction to go", which is right! People will use this to say "see, this proves Dems should moderate", which it does not (1/2)
The extreme sloppiness of the DNC autopsy is exactly the point of incapacity in the formal party as they chose to contract out the job to someone who was manifestly incapable.
There's a lot wrong with the DNC autopsy, but the sheer laziness of it all is perhaps the worst
Bad : that this rubbish is going around again Good: I get to share this excellent history by @bretdevereaux.bsky.social acoup.blog/2025/07/11/c... It’s long but in depth and shows really well the amount of work it took to survive for the vast vast majority of people in the past.
Collections: Life, Work, Death and the Peasant, Part I: Households
This is the first post in a series (I, II, IIIa, IIIb, IVa, IVb, IVc, IVd,IVe, V) discussing the basic contours of life – birth, marriage, labor, subsistence, death – of pre-modern peas…
acoup.blog
Tim Price@timprice.bsky.social · 3mo agoNo it wasn’t. That isn’t true.
Free Primary Care For All? It's possible! We have a policy about it! www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...
Free primary care for all: Democratic think tank pushes the party on new health policy
The Searchlight Institute wants Democrats to shake up their approach to healthcare and offer a fresh vision for the future.
nbcnews.com
They should really just publish the damn thing so we don't go into a primary cycle where candidates get asked about it. It's silly.
Dave Weigel@daveweigel.bsky.social · 3mo agoI'm convinced that if the DNC just put this out last year, it would have been a 2-day news cycle and the PDF would be mouldering on the website never to be read again. Instead: Leaks and new questions every few weeks.