Why is Claude so keen on pointing out "honest" interpretations and results? Does it cheat on everything else?
David Escamilla-Guerrero
@descamillag.bsky.social
AP @econstandrews, economic history, labor, and development. ResAff @iza_bonn & @OxfordESH https://www.escamilla-guerrero.com/
‼️ Hot off the press at JDE. We show that European immigration raised Brazilian farm values in the Age of Mass Migration—chiefly by intensifying land cultivation—and didn’t slow structural transformation. w/ @andrea-papadia.bsky.social & Ariell Zimran: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🗣️ Published today in @aeajournals.bsky.social. Ethan Lewis and I use a visa lottery, as a nationwide randomized experiment, to test the effects of foreign labor on US firms and workers. doi.org/10.1257/app.... A concise summary from @nber.org —> www.nber.org/digest/20221...
In this new @iza.org WP with Giovanni Peri, we we show that access to the newly built Mexican railway system in the early 1900's had two important effects. (1) It generated a network of migrants to the US, which persisted, in direction and relative size, until today.
Por si os interesa, mi libro sobre "Capital y Trabajo: 50 peliculas esenciales sobre economia" ya esta en acceso abierto para que lo disfruteis, leais y useis (incluye un apendice con ciclos de cine como material docente). hdl.handle.net/10609/154317
🆕 How conflict shocks travel along food supply chains Today on VoxDev, Marco Alfano (Economics at Southampton) & Thomas Cornelissen (University of Essex) show how violence along transport routes in Somalia raised maize prices even in distant, peaceful markets: https://ow.ly/TZWl50Z53OB
How conflict shocks travel along food supply chains
Conflict disrupting transport routes in Somalia raises food prices and worsens household welfare in distant, peaceful markets, showing that the economic costs of violence travel far beyond the front line through supply chains. Aid strategies focused on areas with active fighting should be complemented by protection of key transport corridors and supply-chain monitoring to reach all affected communities.
ow.ly
Conflict disrupting transport routes in Somalia raises food prices and worsens household welfare in distant, peaceful markets, showing that the economic costs of violence travel far beyond the front line through supply chains.
🆕 How conflict shocks travel along food supply chains Today on VoxDev, Marco Alfano (Economics at Southampton) & Thomas Cornelissen (University of Essex) show how violence along transport routes in Somalia raised maize prices even in distant, peaceful markets: https://ow.ly/TZWl50Z53OB
👏 Congratulations to Professor Leah Boustan on her election to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, class of 2026! egc.yale.edu/news/leah-bo...
Leah Boustan Elected to American Academy of Arts and Sciences
The Director of the Program in Economic History studies labor markets and immigration
egc.yale.edu
Learning a lot from this great article about Japanese railways. For example, TIL Japan has privatized parking: “Before someone buys a car, they must prove that they have a reserved night-time space on private land, either owned or leased.” worksinprogress.co/issue/why-ja...
Why Japan has such good railways - Works in Progress Magazine
Japan's railways are the finest in the world. Other countries can copy its formula.
worksinprogress.co
The dept of Economic History in Lund is hiring a new Senior Lecturer! Ad is here, deadline 17 May: lu.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
Senior Lecturer in Economic History
The department of Economic History employs around 70 researchers, teachers, doctoral candidates, and administrative personnel. Research at the department includes topics such as Economic demography, E
lu.varbi.com
Following up we have David Escamilla-Guerrero from @uniofstandrews.bsky.social presenting on "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Transportation Infrastructure on International Migration". #MigrationForum2026 #MigrationResearch #Economics
Deep breath. I'm honored and excited to join the faculty of America's oldest research university, Johns Hopkins. I'll start this summer as a full professor, one of the founding faculty at the brand-new School of Government and Policy. We're building something unique & important, even historic.
Home - JHU School of Government and Policy
Johns Hopkins School of Government and Policy advances governance with research, data-driven analysis, and innovative solutions to today’s challenges.
sgp.jhu.edu
I have been working with Claude Code to extract historical data for one of my research projects. The final System Prompt reduces data extraction from 30 (manual extraction) to 5 days. See details below ...
ICYMI: International migration is one of the most powerful tools for poverty reduction and economic development. This @voxdev.bsky.social review by @profdeaner.bsky.social synthesizes rigorous quantitative evidence on the impact of migration on origin countries. myumi.ch/VVmGx
International Migration
International migration is one of the most powerful tools available for poverty reduction and economic development. This review synthesises rigorous quantitative evidence on the impact of migration on...
myumi.ch
Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions On U.S. Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery" by Michael A. Clemens and Ethan G. Lewis.
The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions On U.S. Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery
(Forthcoming Article) - U.S. firms hiring foreign workers in low-skill nonfarm jobs face a binding quota on the ‘H- 2B’ visa, allocated in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the quota’s marginal impact using the lottery, a novel firm survey, and a pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously employing more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs increase production (elasticity 0.20–0.22), investment (1.5–2.1), and profits (0.15). The elasticity of substitution between H-2B and U.S. workers is very low (0.8–2.2). Thus the effect on U.S. employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.
aeaweb.org
“Strong financial support for mothers from the government can make motherhood more affordable and promote gender equality in economic resources.” Investing in mothers and families - even if it doesn’t raise the birth rates - is worth doing.
Denmark’s generous child care and parental leave policies erase 80% of the ‘motherhood penalty’ for working moms
Two researchers found that Danish government benefits do not fully offset moms’ lost earnings. But they do help offset lost income for working women with kids.
theconversation.com
Egypt’s persistently low female labour force participation reflects not a lack of education, but structural barriers that prevent women’s educational gains from translating into sustained employment. Read today's article to learn more:
🆕 Why is female labour force participation still so low in Egypt? Today on VoxDev, Rana Hendy (American University in Cairo) discusses how Egypt's persistently low FLFP does not reflect a lack of education, but rather structural barriers: https://ow.ly/pEQA50Y5OVG
Everyone talks about the "credibility revolution", but I think one of the most valuable shifts in econ over the last decade has been the rise of rigorous descriptive historical work like this in top journals:
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006,” by Lyons (@ronanlyons), Shertzer (@econhist-allday), Gray (@econhistoryorbust), and Agorastos: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
📢 🏹 Call for Papers 🏹📢 3rd workshop in Labour Economics at Nottingham GEP When: June 1-2, 2026 Keynotes: Gordon Dahl (UCSD) and @annastansbury.bsky.social (MIT) Small, in-person workshop; plenty of interactions! 🗓️ Submit by March 1 🗓️ Link: tinyurl.com/3kdpb64a #EconSky #EconConf
🆕 Climate adaptation and vulnerability in Mexico Today on VoxDev w/ IEA, Sandra Aguilar-Gomez (Technologico de Monterrey) discusses why a one-size-fits-all approach to climate change won’t work in Mexico: https://voxdev.org/topic/energy-environment/climate-adaptation-and-vulnerability-mexico
Climate adaptation and vulnerability in Mexico
A one-size-fits-all approach to climate change won’t work in Mexico, where climate adaptation is highly unequal. Currently, private responses such as air conditioning, migration, and financial adjustment play a central role. These mechanisms are often more accessible to higher-income households while exacerbating inequality and shifting climate risks onto poorer, informal, and rural populations, as well as overburdening health, labour, and financial systems.
voxdev.org
📢 Our new VoxDevLit on International Migration is out now! Senior Editor Dean Yang & Co-Editors Catia Batista, Gaurav Khanna, David McKenzie, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Caroline Theoharides review research on international migration. Read & download here: https://ow.ly/qXx950XWAar
Funding Opportunity! We are now taking applications for our Early Career Research Awards. These awards provide support to recent PhD earners researching policy and employment issues. Those working in economics, sociology, public policy, political science, and related fields may apply. #Econsky
To learn more about the program, its requirements, how to apply, or to read about previous winners, follow this link: www.upjohn.org/news/upjohn-...
Upjohn Institute invites applications for the 2026 Early Career Research Awards
upjohn.org
🆕 We are excited to announce that we are launching a new podcast - Ideas in Development In this introductory episode, Managing Editor @olihanney.bsky.social explains why, and previews what we have planned: www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFGL...
Ideas in Development: A New VoxDev Podcast
YouTube video by VoxDev
youtube.com
📢 International migration is one of the most powerful tools available for poverty reduction and economic development. At our VoxDevLit launch event on January 14, Dean Yang will summarise evidence on international migration. Register➡️ https://ow.ly/y5n150XRWT9
Your marking is done. Family visits are over. The excesses of New Year's Eve have been salved w/ aspirin and sleep. Next semester hasn't started yet. Thus... the perfect time to submit a paper to the Fifth Annual SaNE in Applied Microeconomics! applied-microecon.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/sane-worksho...
University of St Andrews Applied Microeconomics Cluster
applied-microecon.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk
(1/5) 🧠RFBerlin Research Insights: New research by Dustmann, Otten, Schoenberg and Stuhler — “Immigration, Jobs and Wages: Separating Regional and Worker Effects” — shows that immigration affects places and people very differently. www.rfberlin.com/research-ins...
Immigration, Jobs and Wages: Separating Regional and Worker Effects
How does immigration affect jobs and wages? Public debates often conflate regional labour market outcomes with the experiences of individual workers. The effects of immigration on “places” and “people...
rfberlin.com
Amazing example of how to infer people's valuation of their time. Ryanair has determined customers are willing to pay $1.17 per extra two rows forward they can sit on an airplane, allowing them to disembark a bit sooner. If that saves 1 minute, customers value their time at about $70/hour.
Are you interested in studying Public Policy at @uniofstandrews.bsky.social ? There are two scholarships available for Palestinian students: www.st-andrews.ac.uk/study/fees-a...
St Andrews Education for Palestinian Students - Study at St Andrews - University of St Andrews
st-andrews.ac.uk