Europe will probably not run out of diesel this winter. That is not where the security risk sits. Syria shows why. Diesel up 40% in mid-September, protests in at least five provinces, a subsidised tier within a week.
Florian Krampe
@floriankrampe.bsky.social
Director Climate Change & Risk Programme @SIPRI.org | #ClimateSecurity, conflict, peacebuilding, & security | PhD Uppsala Peace | 🇸🇪🇩🇪 | Geriatric Millennial. FlorianKrampe.org
Climate is not chapter six of the risk report. It is the physical ground every other plan stands on. You cannot take Russia, cyber and a physical world that no longer holds still in turn. Put them all in the middle of the table and design from there. Opening panel, Di Säkerhet & Beredskap.
Opinion — A Super El Nino is here and ASEAN is running out of time. The region has the tools to limit the damage, but funding and coordination fall short By Florian Krampe and Mely Caballero-Anthony asia.nikkei.com/opinion/a-su...
Check it! Blaming the Weather for the Fire - www.newsecuritybeat.org/2026/07/blam... @conresglobal.bsky.social @geoffdabelko.bsky.social @lswatuk.bsky.social @eswein.bsky.social @floriankrampe.bsky.social
Blaming the Weather for the Fire
This article was originally published by African Arguments and has been lightly edited for style. On March 19th, the president undertook a historic two-day trip to London, the first by a Nigerian [......
newsecuritybeat.org
My new piece on Africa Arguments: “Blaming the Weather for the Fire.” Tinubu blamed climate & the Sahel for Nigeria’s terrorism. He’s not entirely wrong but it’s a deflection. Climate is the candle. State failure, poverty & neglect light the flame. 🔥 @stacydvandeveer.bsky.social
Blaming the weather for the fire | African Arguments
Nigeria’s terrorism crisis has deeper roots than Tinubu admitted in London On March 19th, the president undertook a historic two-day trip to London, the first by a Nigerian leader in nearly 40 years. ...
africanarguments.org
The UN paid a water bill. It didnt make the conflict go away. youtu.be/l3TptlUu5BI?...
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
youtu.be
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? youtu.be/l3TptlUu5BI?...
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
youtu.be
Climate change is not destined to fuel conflict, it can also become a powerful pathway to peace. This TEDx talk by @floriankrampe.bsky.social challenges conventional narratives & shows how climate action, cooperation & resilience can help build a more peaceful world. www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Tp...
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
youtube.com
Corporate boards are miscalculating global risk, and it is costing them. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
#afghanistan #climateadaptation #climatesecurity | Florian Krampe
Corporate boards are miscalculating global risk, and it is costing them. When executives look at a climate-stressed region or a conflict zone, the prevailing wisdom is to label it a "no-go" area and ...
linkedin.com
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech start-ups. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech… | Flori...
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech start-ups. Looki...
linkedin.com
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region. Steel was king. Today, it remains… ...
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region. Steel was king. Today, it remains r...
linkedin.com
The current LNG crunch stresses another criticial indirect impact of the Iran war: the war in the Gulf just dismantled years of climate progress in East Asia through the panic-driven return to coal. ⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
In my recent TRT World interview with Reagan Des Vignes, we discussed how conflict creates a massive "indirect emission surge." I focused mostly on disrupted logistics and longer flight path...
In my recent TRT World interview with Reagan Des Vignes, we discussed how conflict creates a massive "indirect emission surge." I focused mostly on disrupted logistics and longer flight paths. The cu...
linkedin.com
When we report on war, we focus on troop movements and humanitarian corridors. In my recent interview with TRT World's Reagan des Vignes, we discussed why the environmental footprint of conflict is so difficult to erase. 📺⏩ youtu.be/IDyo1PMGK_4?...
Smart green money must move to conflict zones. New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas argue Katongo Seyuba and I. ⏩ fdiintelligence.com/content/7a6b... #ClimateSecurity
Smart green money must move to conflict zones
New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas
fdiintelligence.com
The #MSC2026 report "Under Destruction" offers a powerful analysis of our fracturing geopolitical order. My latest in @financialtimes.com complements this by looking at the physical order: ft.com/content/b44f... @munsecconf.bsky.social #ClimateSecurity #Arctic @sipri.org
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
ft.com
SIPRI Director of Studies @floriankrampe.bsky.social discusses the changing physics of the Arctic in this opinion piece for the @financialtimes.com, and explains why environmental realities must be taken into account. Full article ➡️ bit.ly/4kqOLhM #Arctic #ClimateSecurity #Geopolitics #SIPRI
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
bit.ly
The real #Greenland problem? Leaders ignore “the water rising around their ankles”, SIPRI’s @floriankrampe.bsky.social argues “Countries are systematically underinvesting in protection against environmental forces that degrade the capabilities of their defence assets…” www.ft.com/content/b44f...
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
ft.com
How can investing in the green transition build lasting resilience? SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social and Aurore Belfrage break it down in their latest external article for @di.se. Read it now: www.di.se/debatt/inves...
Investeringar i klimat och försvar ger riktig resiliens
DEBATT: Parallellt med försvarsupprustningen behöver vi accelerera investeringarna i den gröna omställningen för att skapa resiliens, förutsättningar för…
di.se
We are treating "Green vs. Military" as a budget war. It should be an innovation race. 🇸🇪 Sweden’s defense budget is up 34%. If we don't invest in dual-use tech, we are funding obsolescence. The Nordics can own this export market. My op-ed w/ @aurorebelfrage.bsky.social in @di.se.
Last week, SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social spoke at a panel hosted by Oesterreichische Nationalbank on sustainable security. 📺 Watch the panel discussion: www.youtube.com/watch?v=91ik... #Sustainability #SustainableSecurity #ClimateRisks #Resilience
Sustainable Security? Balancing Risks and Resources in Europe’s Climate and Defense Transition
YouTube video by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)
youtube.com
I spent this week in two very different rooms, discussing the same looming failure. You cannot buy 21st-century security with a 20th-century receipt. If we treat "National Security" and "Ecological Security" as separate line items, we fail at both. #ClimateSecurity
EU defense spending is up 16%. But a budget ignoring climate resilience is built on quicksand. Deterrence fails when troops are tied up in disaster relief. Wed at @oenb.at, we debate the operational reality. It isn't about emissions. It's about survival. www.linkedin.com/events/balan...
We define projects by the name of the pot where the money comes from, not by the problems they solve. As I discussed with @danbanik.bsky.social this isn't just an administrative headache. It is a systemic failure. youtu.be/Hb6voDIkS1c?...
Climate, conflict and the development squeeze – Florian Krampe
YouTube video by In Pursuit of Development
youtu.be
I sat down with @danbanik.bsky.social to discuss why "hard security" is becoming a brittle strategy in the Anthropocene. Full discussion on In Pursuit of Development: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb6v... #ClimateSecurity #Defense #Peacebuilding @sipri.org
Climate, conflict and the development squeeze – Florian Krampe
YouTube video by In Pursuit of Development
youtube.com
This new partner publication by @giz.de, ISS and SIPRI brings together research and practical experience to offer actionable recommendations for making work on fragility more effective and sustainable➡️ bit.ly/44skwQW #Peace #Development @floriankrampe.bsky.social @dylan-odriscoll.bsky.social
We have the capital. We have the technology. What we lack is a social machinery capable of using them. 👉 www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
#climatesecurity #governance #innovation | Florian Krampe
We have the capital. We have the technology. What we lack is a social machinery capable of using them. Earlier this week, I posted about the bureaucratic nightmare of accessing EU climate funds. It e...
linkedin.com
Europe is focused on the Eastern flank. But can we afford to let "hard security" blind us to #ClimateSecurity risks? If we drain resilience funding to buy tanks, we aren't safer—we’re just vulnerable in a different way. My discussion w Dominic Bowen 👇 open.spotify.com/episode/2ffE...
Episode 291: Climate Insecurity, Conflict, and Europe's Expanding Risk Perimeter with Dr Florian Krampe
open.spotify.com
If European industry can’t navigate this bureaucracy, what hope do Fragile States have? New data from the Financial Times on the EU Innovation Fund is damning: ❌ €7.1bn awarded since 2021 ❌ Only 4.7% actually paid out ❌ 3,000 hours and €85k per application www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
#climatesecurity #euinnovation #governance | Florian Krampe
If European industry can’t navigate this bureaucracy, what hope do Fragile States have? New data from the Financial Times on the EU Innovation Fund is damning: ❌ €7.1bn awarded since 2021 ❌ Only 4.7...
linkedin.com
Is your supply chain strategy prepared for the coming governance deficit? Climate stress + weak institutions = commercial volatility. Companies that win will treat resilience as an investment, not a reporting burden. 🎧 open.spotify.com/episode/2ffE... #Geopolitics #BusinessStrategy
Episode 291: Climate Insecurity, Conflict, and Europe's Expanding Risk Perimeter with Dr Florian Krampe
open.spotify.com
Can the world quit #coal? #COP30 #energy #ActOnClimate #Brazil #China #India @matpaterson.bsky.social @leahstokes.bsky.social theconversation.com/can-the-worl...
Can the world quit coal?
Nearly a third of all countries worldwide have pledged to phase out their unabated coal-burning power. But China and India are still adding coal plants – for now.
theconversation.com