Spent a lucky last few days trying to model how trees grow ... What to do when a hierarchical GP is not enough for all the behaviours?

Not be Alarmist(TM), but this seems pretty bad!

Peter Gleick@petergleick.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Today is the unofficial end of the California rainy season and the last official snowpack survey. There's basically no snow, and the reason is #climatechange. “This particular year is as clear an indication of the influence of climate change as anything we’ve seen” www.latimes.com/environment/...

What a journey! Check out Christophe's great post as he wraps up a 2 year (!!) MSc experiment.

Christophe Rouleau-Desrochers@christopherd98.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Two years ago, I started an experiment to test the effect of longer seasons on tree growth with the @temporalecology.bsky.social and @lizzieinvancouver.bsky.social. Earlier this week, the data collection of this project ended end here's my recent blog post about it: www.tumblr.com/temporalecol...

Really appreciating the amazing diversity that BES has found to help us solve the biodiversity crisis. What the...? #BES2025

A few sponsored registrations are still available for black, indigenous people of color in high-income countries or those from low and middle-income countries. Check out the course page for details and contact me if you're interested.

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt@betanalpha.bsky.social · 11mo ago

On Wed, Dec 10 I am offering a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian regression modeling, with exercises in both RStan and PyStan, at a steep discount in an effort to raise funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. For registration details see betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

Wednesday, December 10! Bayesian regression modeling! Stan exercises! Raising money for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers! betanalpha.github.io/courses/!

Not all graphical models are the same. Join us in December to dig into the probabilistic modeling structure of Bayesian regression analysis while raising money for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. For details on the course and how to register check out betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

Our department at UBC is hiring for a professor of forest ecophysiology, including "tree ecophysiology; plant abiotic or biotic stress physiology; forest mortality and climate change responses; forest carbon balance; tree water relations; or nutrient use." Learn more at: tinyurl.com/5da56f5c

Thanks to @betanalpha.bsky.social @vvandermeersch.bsky.social and Janneke Hille Ris Lambers for a fun day discussing how trees grow at Mount Rainier in Mount Rainier NP to round out June! And to all of them plus Mao and Avery for more math at UW (see gcecology.tumblr.com/post/7877335...).

Ask an ecologist! Okay, maybe not the one on the left, but the other two look good for it (including @vvandermeersch.bsky.social).

Cool new work by @vvandermeersch.bsky.social in PNAS, which he mostly did in a short visit to my lab last summer (no pressure future visitors!). This paper continues the theme that my expectations are often wrong. (But I still question if plants can sense the second derivative of photoperiod.)

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences@pnas.org · last yr.

The summer solstice may signal peak growth for many plants. On average, the summer solstice coincides with a thermal optimum during the growing season. As the climate warms, this cue could remain stable, but there’s significant local variation. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

In non-WW3 news, new paper alert! Or what I did on my Norwegian sabbatical. Humid heat trends in Europe: Pretty bad! But unlike Southeast US, temperature increases (in part driven by fewer clouds) are the main cause, not dewpoint increases. rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Several recent studies suggest the summer solstice might act as a universal cue for key plant processes. But why would the longest day of the year be so important? Our new study in @pnas.org sheds some light on this question ⏬ www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... @lizzieinvancouver.bsky.social

I just published an explainer on aerosols and their role in the climate that I've been working on for the past few months! It includes both how aerosols work, how emissions have changed, and how thats driven recent warming: www.carbonbrief.org/...

Aww, thanks! And yes on the fun analyses!

Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt@betanalpha.bsky.social · last yr.

Academia is a pretty big mess these days and the exceptional positive experiences are all due to outstanding advisors. I can vouch for this being one of those exceptional circumstances. Also there will probably be some pretty fun statistical analysis opportunities if that is of interest.

Interested in comprehensive courses on Bayesian mixture, survival, pairwise comparison (Bradley-Terry, IRT, etc), and ordinal outcome modeling, complete with extensive Stan exercises? Check out my upcoming remote courses, www.eventzilla.net/e/advanced-b....

Thank you NSF! This photo lifted my spirits.

Dr. Dawn Wright@deepseadawn.bsky.social · last yr.

"Everyone was welcome, according to organizers, although they say senior administrators were told NOT to participate." YES and KUDOS to the courage of NSF staff! Happy 75th anniversary National Science Foundation! www.science.org/content/arti... 🧪 🌊 ⚒️

My personal essay: "A Different Kind Uncertainty" speaking out on the grave implications of the destruction of US science (including for GIS users). Yea verily, these are far from normal times .... dusk.geo.orst.edu/uncertainty.... #GISchat #geogchat #geosky ⚒️ 🌊 🌍 🌎 🌏

This is important work Ben, thank you for your efforts.

Benjamin Cook@dustybowl.bsky.social · last yr.

Part of my secret plan to just get an excuse to drink more wine "professionally"

While I am excited about hearing Bara Bada Bastu next weekend at Eurovision, I want to be clear about what is really good music: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dx1z...

HOW and WHY were Queen SO good at Live Aid in 1985?

YouTube video by Wings of Pegasus

youtube.com

What's at stake for the #KeelingCurve if NOAA gets dismantled. A take in @thebulletin.org from Ralph Keeling and Eric Morgan of @scrippsocean.bsky.social: thebulletin.org/2025/05/how-...

How the dismantling of NOAA threatens the Keeling Curve

How the Trump administration's dismantling of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration threatens the Keeling Curve, an iconic measure used in climate change research. As explained by the so...

thebulletin.org

@wimthiery.bsky.social presenting our new paper "Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes" at #EGU25. Stay tuned for the paper led by Luke Grant, @innevanderkelen.bsky.social, @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social, @lukasgudmundsson.bsky.social published on 8 May.

Did Dartmouth miss the memo on signing onto this: www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c... ? It's weird, all the other schools I know (and all the Ivy League schools) seemed to have received the memo.

A Call for Constructive Engagement | AAC&U

A Call for Constructive Engagement

aacu.org

GISS does incredible science for the world; cancelling the lease on the building they are in (with no place for staff to go) will cost us all.

Paul Voosen@voosen.me · last yr.

GISS has famously been located above the Seinfeld restaurant for decades. Reprisal against Columbia or climate -- or both? GSA cancelled the lease, not NASA, a source says. GISS does not house supercompute -- its climate models are run at NASA Goddard in Md. Still a major disruption for its staff.

Happy Friday everyone. In you missed the new acoustic version of Sweden's Eurovision entry this week, it's pretty great: www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9eY...

KAJ - Bara Bada Bastu (Live & Unplugged) | Sweden 🇸🇪 | #EurovisionALBM

YouTube video by Eurovision Song Contest

youtube.com

Hot off the presses: this year I am offering four brand new remote courses covering more advanced Bayesian modeling techniques: mixture modeling, survival modeling, pairwise comparison modeling, and ordinal modeling, www.eventzilla.net/e/advanced-b.... Tell your friends, colleagues, and frenemies.