New on FirstView: which cases drive a regression result? Melamed, Wippell, Schoon & Breiger extend Regression Inside Out to hazard models and beyond. Re-analyzing a study of durable democracy, they find South Africa contributes disproportionately to the key effect. doi.org/10.1017/pan.2026.10056

New on FirstView: in two field experiments with a Dutch party’s 35,000+ members, Jonne Kamphorst & @hlarreguy.bsky.social find that personal calls raised volunteer sign-ups (+83% and +361%, from low baselines), especially among younger members. Emails had no effect. doi.org/10.1017/pan.2026.10053

New on FirstView: weighting can fail when nonrespondents differ on the outcome. @lukaslaffers.bsky.social , @mintal.bsky.social & Ivan Sutóris extend a fix to ordinal scales. In the 2024 ANES, it shifts life satisfaction meaningfully but economic views only modestly. doi.org/10.1017/pan.2026.10055

The October 2026 issue of Political Analysis (Volume 34, Issue 4) is out, and every article is open access. Eight papers on protest voting in Congress, coalition governments, conjoint designs, Gaussian processes, vision-language models, and more. Highlights in the thread below.

Political Analysis: Volume 34 - Issue 4 | Cambridge Core

Cambridge Core - Political Analysis - Volume 34 - Issue 4

cambridge.org

Currently in FirstView: In “Let Them Eat Pie: Addressing Sample Selection in Multiparty Elections,” Ali Kagalwala, @tmqm.bsky.social, Guy Whitten, and Yongzhi Xu introduce a novel maximum likelihood approach that accounts for the biases that come from sample selection in a compositional setting.

Currently in FirstView: In “The Power of Prognosis: Improving Covariate Balance Tests with Outcome Information,” Clara Bicalho, Adam Bouyamourn, and Thad Dunning show how balance tests can lead to false conclusions and develop tests that upweight covariates associated with outcomes.

Currently in FirstView: In “Monotone Ecological Inference,” Hadi Elzayn, @jacobsgoldin.bsky.social, Cameron Guage, Daniel Ho, and Claire Morton characterize the biases of, and relationships among ecological inference (EI) estimators for identifying group means and differences.

Currently in FirstView: In “On the Foundations of the Design-Based Approach,” P. M. Aronow, Austin Jang, and @mollyow.bsky.social propose a design-based framework for analyzing randomized trials and survey sampling that avoids strong claims about the data-generating process.

Currently in FirstView: In “Post-Treatment Problems: What Can We Say about the Effect of a Treatment among Sub-Groups Who (Would) Respond in Some Way?,” Chad Hazlett, Nina McMurry, and Tanvi Shinkre propose the treatment reactive average causal effect (TRACE).

Currently in FirstView: In “Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls,” @bogatyrev.bsky.social and @lstoetze.bsky.social examine synthetic control methods (SCMs) and make the case for jointly estimating synthetic controls across multiple compositional outcomes.

Currently in FirstView: In “Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities,” @wpmarble.bsky.social and Josh Clinton provide a framework for incorporating known population data to improve estimates of small subgroups in MRP models.

Currently in FirstView: In “Text as Behavior,” @owasow.bsky.social proposes using features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. Stats like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation.

Currently in FirstView: In “Democracy Manifest or Democracy Latent? A Unified Framework for Identifying Regime Types and Transitions,” @omerorsun.bsky.social and Muhammet A. Bas develop and validate a framework to study regimes that addresses measurement uncertainty and missing data.

Currently in FirstView: In “Using Multilingual Language Technology to Classify Open-Ended Survey Responses: Conceptions of Democracy in a Cross-Cultural Survey Setting,” S. Dahlberg, L. Dürlich, S. Axelsson, Y. Zhao, and J. Nivre examine the use of LMs in analyzing open-ended survey responses.

Currently in FirstView: In “Adaptive Randomization in Conjoint Survey Experiments,” @jennahgosciak.bsky.social, @dmolitor.bsky.social, and @ianlundberg.bsky.social develop an adaptive design for conjoint experiments that summarizes the range of effects of one attribute as a function of all others.

Currently in FirstView: In “From Faces to Politics: Vision-Language Models (Sometimes) Link Visual Demographic Characteristics to Ideological Labels,” S. Jeon, M. Lee, @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social, and @calvinklai.bsky.social ask how models use demographics as shortcuts for ideological attribution.

Currently in FirstView: In “Correcting Nonignorable Nonresponse Bias in Turnout Estimation Using Callback Data,” Xinyu Li, Naiwen Ying, Kendrick Qijun Li, Xu Shi, and Wang Miao look at the role of callback data as a way of adjusting for nonresponse bias in estimating voter turnout.

Currently in FirstView: In “Inference at the Data’s Edge: Gaussian Processes for Estimation and Inference in the Face of Extrapolation Uncertainty,” Soonhong Cho, Doeun Kim, and Chad Hazlet illustrate the value of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for capturing counterfactual uncertainty. 

Currently in FirstView: In “A Multilevel Model for Coalition Governments: Uncovering Party-Level Dependencies Within and Between Governments,” Benjamin Rosche extends the Multiple Membership Multilevel Model to represent the multilevel structure of coalition government data.

Currently in FirstView: In “Accounting for Protest Voting in the U.S. Congress,” Anthony Fowler and Jeffrey B. Lewis estimate a model of congressional voting that allows for non-ideological protest voting. This has significant implications for roll-call estimates of ideology.

Currently in FirstView: In “A Dynamic Discrete Choice Approach to Attitude Stability and Constraint,” @alecia-nepaul.bsky.social and Steven Stern introduce a discrete choice framework to identify influential attitudes within attitude systems.

Currently in FirstView: in “Refining Gamson: The Isometric Log-Ratio Transformation and Portfolio Proportionality in Multiparty Governments,” Lanny Martin and Georg Vanberg propose the isometric log-ratio (ILR) as an alternative to the additive log-ratio (ALR) transformation.

Currently in FirstView: in “Modeling Hierarchical Spatial Interdependence for Limited Dependent Variables,” Ali Kagalwala and Kankyeul Yang propose a class of spatial hierarchical models with binary outcomes to account for spatially independent and spatially dependent unobserved group effects.

Currently in FirstView: in “Potential and Pitfalls of Audio as Data for Political Research: Alignment, Features, and Classification Models,” @r-mestre.bsky.social and Matt Ryan provide solutions to challenges encountered when analyzing audio data in political science.

Currently in FirstView: In “Survey Quality and Acquiescence Bias: A Cautionary Tale,” Andrés Cruz, Adam Bouyamourn, and @joeornstein.bsky.social discuss the dangers of drawing inferences from low-quality survey datasets. They replicate an experiment on acquiescence and misinformation.

Currently in FirstView: In “Extractive versus Generative Language Models for Political Conflict Text Classification,” P. Brandt, S. Alsarra, F. D’Orazio, @dagmarheintze.bsky.social, L. Khan, S. Meher, @javierosorio.bsky.social, & M. Sianan review and benchmark the ConfliBERT model.

The January 2026 issue of Political Analysis is out and currently free to read. Check it out now through the end of February!

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 8mo ago

Where not #OpenAccess the articles in the latest issue of @polanalysis.bsky.social are free to read until the end of February 2026 - Volume 34 - Issue 1 - https://cup.org/3MZBd0o

Currently in FirstView: In “Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis for Unmeasured Confounding in Causal Panel Data Models,” Licheng Liu and Teppei Yamamoto develop a Bayesian sensitivity analysis (BSA) method for causal panel data analysis.

Currently in FirstView: In “Stay Tuned: Improving Sentiment Analysis and Stance Detection Using Large Language Model,” Max Griswold, Michael Robbins, and @sociologian.bsky.social evaluate fine-tuning strategies to improve LLM performance using social media data surrounding the 2020 election.

Currently in FirstView: In “Political DEBATE: Efficient Zero-Shot and Few-Shot Classifiers for Political Text,” Michael Burnham, Kayla Kahn, Ryan Yang Wang, and Rachel Peng introduce DEBATE, a new open source foundation model for classifying political documents.