Tessera

1 thing about 2016 Trump supporters' foreign policy attitudes--I wrote about for 538 (URL 👇)--is that they weren't especially pro Iraq War back in 2007. But they were more likely to describe themselves as hawks. They weren't so much isolationist as valuing shows of American 💪.

Dan Hopkins@dhopkins1776.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Notice that Dem primary voting in TX is much more predictable based on geography than GOP primary voting. Racial demographics structure Dem primaries & Americans are geographically segregated by race, so... This is something Gall Sigler & I wrote about in the paper flagged 👇.

Curious about the role of ideology in primaries? G Sigler & I published in @polbehavior.bsky.social using survey data & precinct-level results to examine the role of ideology in primary voting. Ideology clearly shapes voting, but successful candidates build cross-bloc coalitions. URL 👇

Interested in the accuracy of primary polls? In this paper (URL in the replies), 3 co-authors & I detail the polling failures in the 2023 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary, where virtually none of the polls showed Mayor Parker winning. (Spoiler alert: I said "Mayor.")

Dan Hopkins @dhopkins1776.bsky.social · 6mo ago

In September/October 2024, I asked a population-based US sample via NORC about their sympathies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict & their presidential leanings. Here's how the results break down, with presidential support (columns) given conditional on sympathies (rows).

Dan Hopkins @dhopkins1776.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Want to understand young voters? An unparalleled starting point is this new podcast by Penn's own Glynn Boltman. Boltman interviews >60 young people in 3 swing states, uncovering key insights about why many young people don't identify as political (or take polls). URLs👇

Prompted by Jacob Savage's claim (left), I plot white Americans' responses to a survey question about whether the bigger problem is people not seeing discrimination where it *does* exist or people seeing discrimination where it does *not* exist, separating men and women. 1/2

In a survey I commissioned in Feb-Mar '24, I asked: When it comes to improving race relations, do you think it is more important for people to focus on groups' unique experiences or commonalities across groups? Americans from all backgrounds, 2 parties overwhelmingly say "both."

The Bulwark@thebulwark.com · 8mo ago

What are the politics of extending ACA subsidies? With a book on public opinion & the ACA (👀 below), I think the tl;dr is "it's complicated." Slightly longer answer: * people *really* don't like losing things * even big impacts on small % of pop. don't show up in nat'l polls

NEW: Congress missed its chance to stop the Obamacare premium shock. But it can still undo some of the damage. @citizencohn.bsky.social explains how a retroactive fix could work, who’s standing in the way, and why every delay means more people lose coverage. lnk.thebulwark.com/4segki6?utm_...

This, from my Feb./Mar. 2024 survey with NORC, shows smoothed average feeling thermometer scores for "Jews/Jewish people" by age for Black Americans, Hispanic Americans & non-Hispanic White Americans.

Can anyone point me to good pieces on American economic policy towards Russia in the 1990s and its impacts, including (but not limited to) Larry Summers' role? Thanks.

Curious how UK citizens' preferences have changed as Reform UK has surged in polls? Just got back the 3rd wave of a @yougov.co.uk panel survey tracing preferences from before the 7/24 election. Very fragmented. Reminiscent of the moment in spring 2019 when four UK parties were thisclose.

"When the waves turn the minutes to hours..."

My $0.02 on grade inflation, which I'm grateful to the @dailypenn.bsky.social for publishing. URL: www.thedp.com/article/2025...

Daniel J. Hopkins | Time to deflate grades

Guest columnist Daniel J. Hopkins argues that grade inflation weakens the impact of a Penn education.

thedp.com

What are the likely impacts if the ACA enhanced tax credits expire? In a 2021 JOP article, W Hobbs & I looked at the impacts of the ACA exchanges' 2014 roll-out on ACA opinions. Effects were cross-cutting, with + effects for some offset by the negative effects on others. 1/3

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Any recommendations for research on how political organizations--the Sierra Club, NRA, AMA, AFL-CIO, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, etc.--choose which political strategies to pursue? That is, when do they focus nationally versus at the state level? On legal activism versus ballot measures?

Survey 160 is hiring a survey scientist! Please feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions, and also please share widely www.survey160.com/survey-scien...

Survey Scientist — Survey 160

survey160.com

My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out. 1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow. www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...

Gerrymandering is bad. Expanding it is even worse. | Opinion

Constant redistricting of electoral maps is likely to make congressional elections even less competitive.

inquirer.com

In 2023 & 2024 NORC surveys of Americans, I asked respondents to describe the political parties. In '23, 4% of descriptions of the Dems mentioned that they were elitist in different ways; 3% said the same of the GOP. In '24, 1% said the same about the Dems vs. 4% about the GOP.

In his interview w @jonfavs.bsky.social, @ezraklein.bsky.social asks, "why haven't the tariffs soured the public on Trump?" An answer from my book on ACA opinions: the contemporary US economy is so diverse & complex that even sizable policy changes don't move opinions consistently.

What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary? I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani. The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.

Grateful the Daily Pennsylvanian asked for my views on the administration's proposed Compact. www.thedp.com/article/2025...

Dan Hopkins@dhopkins1776.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Of course, there are lots of ways that social media can influence politics beyond any direct influence on public attitudes. Rather than shaping what we citizens think, social media could well shape what politicians think we think.

This = from a NORC Feb./March 2024 survey. Blue line shows the weighted average of affective polarization--the absolute difference in ratings of the Republicans & Democrats on the y-axis--by number of days getting news on social media (x-axis). Not a strong relationship.

PennLDI @pennldi.bsky.social · 11mo ago

"While this trend is serious and dangerous, it is one of individual radicalization, not a coherent mass movement. It is a whisper aimed at the unstable man in his basement — validating his terror of a murderous opposition." Sean Westwood at Politico: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America

Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?

politico.com

A new study by LDI Fellows Sara Handley and Emily Gregory finds rural parents face more hospitalizations & barriers to postpartum care than urban peers, while babies fare better overall. Integrating parent care into infant visits could help. Read more: https://bit.ly/46cEnDM

ldi.upenn.edu

I remember so much about that morning 24 years ago in NYC--how clear the day was after the storms the day before. How a thin trail of smoke in an otherwise clear sky was the first I knew of the tragedy. How it was followed by an intense cloud once the Towers collapsed. 1/

Despite their well-documented flaws, I think universities are uniquely positioned to help the US think through the complex economic, social, political, legal, ethical, technological, & military questions raised by contemporary and emerging uses of AI.