Which of the following US Senate seats do you think Democrats are *least* likely to win in 2026? - Texas - Michigan - Georgia - Maine

Brown University has a widget that tracks the cost of the Iran war to American consumers (as contrasted to whatever the Pentagon is spending). Per-household cost now exceeds $600. iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu

What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...

Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?

Primary polls have historically been rather unreliable, and a surge in new primary voters means turnout assumptions matter more than usual

blog.fiftyplusone.news

|horses|@chemotaxis.bsky.social · 6h ago

Polling is like really fucked. Strikes me as a huge problem honestly.

PSA: Primary polling is prone to huge errors and always has been. Voters often tune in late, see several candidates as acceptable, and many change their minds up to the last minute. Turnout varies enormously, meaning weighting is prone to a lot of imprecision.

Sure maybe polling is over, or maybe don't rush to have too many takes about a Democratic race where almost all of the publicly available polling is either strategically released by one of the candidates or from Republican firms?

Whatever direction they take, please hold on your polling error posts until we are at >99% vote in.

Two very interesting papers on how minorities respond to exclusion (having IDs not represented in info + categories presented to them). Somewhat different treatments and outcomes, and diff populations, but I think very parallel in spirit -- one account of mobilization, the other demobilization

He also *literally* thinks his shit doesn’t stink.

Ben Collins@bencollins.bsky.social · 19h ago

Oh my god the dietician who is telling everyone in the White House to only eat steak and sauerkraut doesn't wipe his ass.

Yglesias is right ... about 3d bar charts

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 22h ago

Bowling Alone holds up pretty well but was published during the unfortunate era when ready access to Microsoft Excel convinced people that they should make 3D bar charts.

Pluralism is good, actually

This is impressionistic, but there's both a lot more antisemitism and a lot more anti-Muslim bias since the last time I did this

Kevin Collins@kwcollins.bsky.social · 21h ago

Survey research is a good way to keep in touch with how much the public actually knows on a given topic, but reading open ends is always particularly sobering

Survey research is a good way to keep in touch with how much the public actually knows on a given topic, but reading open ends is always particularly sobering

When the example questions produced by your "AI Research Agent" that you show as the example on your website are ... very poorly written ... it's a sign you need *more* researchers on your team rather than trying to replace them .

OUT TODAY! 🥳 A straightforward, non-technical guide to thinking like a quantitative social scientist. Written for students, journalists, and curious citizens. A lot of thought and heart went into this. I genuinely hope folks enjoy it!

Do I know any finance director types who would be interested in a highly competitive House race gig?

in this regard it is also worth noting the extent to which most of the classical Nordic social democracies built themselves around a policy commitment to free trade

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · yesterday

DSA-aligned Democrats are now the most pro-free-trade voting bloc in the United States, in an incredible turn of events www.theargumentmag.com/p/who-suppor...

Of course, "botched renovation" was obviously the most likely cause from the start

Kyle Griffin@kylegriffin1.bsky.social · yesterday

MORE CASES DROPPED: Prosecutors are now dropping charges against three more defendants who'd been accused of vandalizing the Reflecting Pool. Jeanine Pirro abruptly abandoned the four cases after investigators concluded that botched work by a contractor was the primary cause of "widespread damage."

Unpopular view perhaps (but I think I’m an early enough adopter to have some credibility) but I think it would be better for society for people whose ideologies is different from mine to build their own communities here than it is for them to marinate in Musk’s algorithmically chosen content

Christopher Mims@mims.bsky.social · yesterday

Nothing more Bluesky than the CEO of the company being like “We still plan on fulfilling our founding mission“ and all the OG posters absolutely losing their minds

I wonder if this reflects an actual ideological shift or reflects that favorability of DSA and opposition to tariffs are both facets of favoring more active opposition to Donald Trump

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · yesterday

DSA-aligned Democrats are now the most pro-free-trade voting bloc in the United States, in an incredible turn of events www.theargumentmag.com/p/who-suppor...

Corruption watch

Acyn@acyn.bsky.social · 2d ago

The President promotes Scotts Miracle-Gro in the middle of an Oval Office event: The best grass you can get. Scotts, you know Scotts? Scott's Miracle-Gro, they're doing it. They do great grass. I got to give him a plug because they did the White House for free.

I picked 12 cups of figs today from a fig tree we planted just three years ago, and it's just the start of our harvest. A Chicago Hardy fig is a great investment in the DC climate, if you're thinking about it

Hi journalist friends! I wrote a one-pager cheat sheet for covering polling for @aapor.bsky.social! Head it here:

A Journalist’s Guide to Understanding Polls & Surveys - AAPOR

aapor.org

You really don't need to repost ridiculous statements just because they're ridiculous and said on camera in the Oval Office.

Slight disagreement: given the number of other J6ers running for office, this is still very relevant

Jacob T. Levy@jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 2d ago

I know this would be closing the barn door after he horse has been reelected president, but if Democrats win both chambers I'd really like to see a concurrent resolution deeming January 6 an insurrection under 14(3). 1/

Corruption watch

Kyle Griffin@kylegriffin1.bsky.social · 2d ago

FLAG: Trump gets to keep tax immunity for himself, his sons, and the Trump Organization under the new 'deal' struck by Todd Blanche. The new order also reaffirms that Trump won't have to pay any taxes he might have owed the IRS.

My main point got buried in the middle of this thread, but @today.yougov.com if you're going to sell synthetic versions of panelists, let the panelists compare our answers to the predictions of our digital "twins". Use the data to improve your product, and if it works well, it's a marketing feature.

Kevin Collins@kwcollins.bsky.social · 2d ago

YouGov, Qualtrics, Ipsos and just about most other companies with an online panel asset, have created or at least experimented with synthetic replicas (because it's another way to monetize the data)

YouGov, Qualtrics, Ipsos and just about most other companies with an online panel asset, have created or at least experimented with synthetic replicas (because it's another way to monetize the data)

And why is Erick Erickson not giving Donald Trump the Cory Mills and Max Miller treatment? There's an adjucation in Trump's case

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 2d ago

next on unsolved mysteries

Someone please create a generative AI powered ombudsman for billionaires that instead of being sycophantic, asks you "is this really a good idea, here's some reasons you should reconsider"