I'm confident that this will put the matter to rest
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · 5h agoAmazing.
Giles Wilkes
@gilesyb.bsky.social
Former politico, comment writer, spread betting dealer, editor, now think tanker, consultant, former baker of overly dense loaves.
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · 5h ago
Since this "nothing has got better" reactionary stuff is doing the rounds again, re-upping a thread plus the many answers to it wherein we identified lots of things that have, in fact, got better.
John Rowan@jrowanbxl.bsky.social · last yr.1 like = 1 thing that has got better since I were a lad
I have a suspicion that if far-future historians only have collected works of fiction to rely on to understand our culture, they will assume we had a workforce made up primarily of writers, and an entire branch of future economics will be devoted to explaining how on earth this could function.
There's a fun conversation on Times Radio right now about the SpaceX moon crash where the interviewer is asking why we shouldn't be more concerned about this crash, and the space expert is explaining where the Moon is and the likelihood of casualties
"In Mr Rungcharoenkitkul’s analysis...: at least part of the AI capex splurge represents zero-sum competition. Firms are using some of the extra compute they are building not to expand the paying market, but to poach customers from rival" www.economist.com/finance-and-... From The Economist
AI revenues are growing fast, but not fast enough
The returns on trillions of dollars of spending are deeply uncertain
economist.com
"Aaron Terrazas, an economist at Gusto, reckons that much of the value generated by ai could end up accruing not to corporate giants, but to Etsy-sellers and small-town accountants" www.economist.com/business/202... From The Economist
America has become an entrepreneur’s paradise
Etsy-sellers and small-town accountants are enjoying the fruits of AI
economist.com
To be fair, “Councillors and council elections don’t matter” are a load-bearing part of the “Kemi Badenoch is doing well and the Conservative party’s prospects under her are looking good” thesis.
Chris Terry-Enescu@cjterry.bsky.social · 15h agoIt's OK for criminal ex-neo Nazis to run your bins is a hell of a line.
" @drbenpaxton.bsky.social said social value criteria were often flagged as a barrier to entry for smaller suppliers, so making the process easier for them was “a good move.”” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
UK to strip back procurement rules to focus on job creation, says Louise Haigh
Andy Burnham’s de facto deputy PM says requirements for businesses vying for Whitehall contracts will be streamlined
giftarticle.ft.com
The real message in the yen intervention - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Interesting: argues that what's significant is the reluctance to allow sales of $ reserves and bonds, hence indicating a dwindling confidence in the dollar as reserve currency
The real message in the yen intervention
The dollar’s status as a reserve currency is not what it used to be
giftarticle.ft.com
"any settlement could give Tehran control over some of the waterway and without denying it the power to eventually charge fees from vessels using it — conditions that would have seemed unthinkable to US geostrategists just a year ago" www.ft.com/content/87b0...
Donald Trump trapped between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s terms
US president faces few good options to exit a war he once said would end swiftly with the Islamic republic’s surrender
ft.com
just went on Times Radio to discuss this www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/... My view: it won't "kickstart" the economy and it isn't a "splurge", but put in the right hands, this sort of finance can make a meaningful difference to the recipients
Treasury seeks to kick-start economy with £9bn a year borrowing bonanza
Ministers hope to exploit a change in the fiscal rules to spend billions more a year on housing, infrastructure and British start-ups
thetimes.com
Quotes: "during our period of study (1993-2024), mechanisms designed to regulate spending tended towards input control and short-term decision-making, struggled to support strategic investment and often failed to deliver sustained improvements in outcomes."
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d agoThis is the Nuffield research that the incredibly productive Diane Coyle refers to in this article. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/publications...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... "The Fed chair likes to praise financial markets, regardless of what they say; does not offer substantive economic explanations; is not overly concerned about logic and consistency" @chrisgiles.ft.com does to Warsh what Emily Wilson did to The Odessey
The Federal Reserve goes Wacko
Warsh’s Awful Communications: Knowingly Opaque. Also in this newsletter, the BoE shows how it’s done
giftarticle.ft.com
"If Canada increasingly sees Europe as its key security and military procurement partner, Donald Trump has only himself to blame" www.economist.com/the-americas... From The Economist
Canada turns to Europe for its security
Donald Trump’s capriciousness has pushed Canada’s military spending towards Europe
economist.com
marketmonetarist.com/2026/08/01/w... If the Fed is late to this tightening, the eventual costs will grow. Bracing from @mamomvpy.bsky.social
Warsh, you are way behind the curve
Second-quarter GDP figures arrived this week for both the US and the euro area, and the coverage has been almost entirely about a single number. US real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.5% in th…
marketmonetarist.com
cepr.org/voxeu/column... Tighter policy encourages some households to try to work more in order to handle income effects
Uncovering the labour supply channel of monetary transmission
Economists have long viewed monetary policy as influencing labour demand, with little effect on labour supply. This column discusses four studies that use different methods and data from the US, the U...
cepr.org
First sourdough* in a long while... I believe the phrase is "nice ears" *I used a pinch of real yeast to give the starter a boost so maybe the next one is the first "true" attempt
This is the Nuffield research that the incredibly productive Diane Coyle refers to in this article. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/publications...
The myth of Treasury control: Understanding the UK's Public Spending System (and How to Fix it) - Bennett School of Public Policy
New research shows that the Treasury's tight control of public spending has come at the cost of a fragmented, short-term system that undermines long-term investment, cross-government collaboration and...
bennettschool.cam.ac.uk
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · 2d agoHow to end the cycle of mistrust between the Treasury and everybody else - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Must read from @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social The need to micromanage is really hard to uproot. Something for Healey's advisers to think about too
How to end the cycle of mistrust between the Treasury and everybody else - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Must read from @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social The need to micromanage is really hard to uproot. Something for Healey's advisers to think about too
How to end the cycle of mistrust between the Treasury and everybody else
The lesson from Manchester is that it takes time for public investment policies to show up in GDP
giftarticle.ft.com
Course you would, “love”… And Brexit will suddenly be amazing. And climate change will go away. And Trump will give us the bestest trade deal ever. And voters will love you for scrapping their rights, to please your moneyed mates… Now, pipe down and focus on your upcoming fight with a bin.
This is a *really* good episode, and I love the finding that WFH is good for fertility (what a way to confuse the natalist anti WFH gammons...)
Soumaya Keynes@soumayakeynes.ft.com · 5d agoStruggling to cope with work from home? Maybe your business has a deeper management problem... New episode of The Economics Show with @NickBloom.bsky.social Transcript: www.ft.com/content/17c3... Listen: podfollow.com/economics-show
It's quite gripping listening to the Money Stuff podcast, wondering whether Matt will actually let his co-host get a single sentence in.
Whatever happened to prudence? - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... by @chrisgiles.ft.com Good article as ever from Chris. One area where I'd quibble... He writes of the bond market vigilantes that:1 /
Whatever happened to prudence?
Governments have stopped correcting budget deficits but — so far — bond markets have let them
giftarticle.ft.com
Wish I was as surprised as I am disappointed to learn about John Cleese
Leopold Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness fund: $45B to fire sale share.google/pXxAUFbJbNW7... Further evidence that we're inhabiting an incredibly unsubtle satire
How Leopold Aschenbrenner built a $45 billion AI hedge fund — and lost most of it in days
Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher-turned-hedge fund manager, saw a dramatic decline this week in his AI-focused fund, Situational Awareness.
share.google
Discovered, thanks to James Marriott's lovely Substack, this beautiful section of Shakespeare (Henry V) open.substack.com/pub/chrisdil... I'm easily impressed, but find it astonishing that WS was so astute not only about how hives work but the theme of unconscious cooperation
open.substack.com/pub/chrisdil... If you want the perfect, educational and insightful introduction to the social care policy debate, which you should, you can get no better one that this from @chrisdillow.bsky.social .
Social care: the fight for economic thinking
Reforming social care isn't a left vs right issue: it's about economics vs prejudice.
open.substack.com