Stephen Herzog
@herzogsm.bsky.social
Director, Vermont Office, Center for Nonproliferation Studies | Professor of the Practice, Middlebury College | Associate, Harvard Project on Managing the Atom | nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, disarmament, technology
There is more OSINT data for monitoring WMD & missile proliferation than ever. Can ML help sift through it? In our AI-WMD special issue, Yanliang Pan examines ML-enabled OSINT benefits & risks, including bias & “hyper-transparency.” Ungated through October: doi.org/10.1080/1073...
AI & nuclear policy are advancing on very different clocks. Next in our AI-WMD issue, David M. Allison of Yale argues that “irreversible” breakthroughs could drive AI integration into nuclear operations & erode human control. Read his new theoretical analysis: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The nuclear paradox: Why the world wants both deterrence and disarmament thebulletin.org/2026/10/the-... Article in @thebulletin.org by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social, Official Visitor @jluisrodriguez.com and @herzogsm.bsky.social
The nuclear paradox: Why the world wants both deterrence and disarmament
A landmark 24-country study reveals that a majority of people worldwide embraces both nuclear deterrence and disarmament, exposing a pragmatic—rather than confused—flexibility that gives policymakers…
thebulletin.org
This commentary builds on the authors' paper in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social Rethinking the deterrence-disarmament dichotomy: The complex landscape of global nuclear weapons preferences doi.org/10.1017/S153...
Rethinking the Deterrence-Disarmament Dichotomy: The Complex Landscape of Global Nuclear Weapons Preferences | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
Rethinking the Deterrence-Disarmament Dichotomy: The Complex Landscape of Global Nuclear Weapons Preferences
doi.org
AI-WMD discussions cannot stop at NC3 integration. We’re featuring each article in our new special issue. First up: editor-in-chief @herzogsm.bsky.social traces AI’s implications across the full WMD life cycle, from pursuit to use or verifiable elimination. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
A 23-country study reveals that a majority of people worldwide embraces both nuclear deterrence and disarmament. The studies authors argue that this exposes a pragmatic flexibility that gives policymakers rare leeway for creative diplomacy. buff.ly/o7TVzJQ
A new study finds that 67% of US respondents support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons which calls for nuclear abolition. But only 22% of those respondents support reducing the US nuclear arsenal. How to square the difference? buff.ly/o7TVzJQ
Is public opinion on nuclear weapons hypocritical—or just pragmatic? A new study by Lauren Sukin @laurensukin.bsky.social, Luis Rodriguez @jluisrodriguez.com, and Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social surveyed 27,000+ people across 24 countries—and uncovered a fascinating global paradox. 🧵👇
MTA Visiting Scholar @herzogsm.bsky.social has a new essay out in @thenonproreview.bsky.social about the many overlooked & overlapping ways AI is affecting the politics of nuclear, biological & chemical weapons. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
From proliferation to restraint: a process-based approach to artificial intelligence and weapons of mass destruction
Artificial intelligence (AI) is now a central element in many of the most pressing debates about nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Yet, the scholarship on AI and weapons of mass destructio...
tandfonline.com
I edited a new full @thenonproreview.bsky.social special issue on this topic. Its articles substantially expand the AI–WMD literature across nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. They're all now open-access or temporarily ungated. Read the issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...
My new @thenonproreview.bsky.social essay argues that AI–WMD research needs to move beyond its usual focus on just NC3 integration or WMD proliferation. AI is reshaping the whole WMD landscape, and we need to study those effects across the full WMD life cycle. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Belfer friends, a memorial for Susan Lynch. Details below. @mitpress.bsky.social @pearson-edits.bsky.social @sannecjv.bsky.social
Jacqueline L. Hazelton@drjlhazelton.bsky.social · last mo.Belfer friends, join us to remember Susan Lynch on Thursday, September 24, 3:30 PM - 4:30 PM in the Belfer Library or on Zoom. Reception to follow. Refreshments will be served. Registration link: hksexeced.tfaforms.net/f/registrati... @intsecurity.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social
It was such a pleasure to contribute to this special issue – thank you to the editors for the opportunity! Check out our article revisiting the Four Faces framework in the age of AI below:
The Nonproliferation Review@thenonproreview.bsky.social · last mo.Big release of the NPR: our special issue on AI & WMD. All these articles are open-access or temporarily ungated. They should push the literature much further into this crucial domain of understanding how AI is reshaping politics & tech. Read the full issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...
My new @thenonproreview.bsky.social essay argues that AI–WMD research needs to move beyond its usual focus on just NC3 integration or WMD proliferation. AI is reshaping the whole WMD landscape, and we need to study those effects across the full WMD life cycle. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Big release of the NPR: our special issue on AI & WMD. All these articles are open-access or temporarily ungated. They should push the literature much further into this crucial domain of understanding how AI is reshaping politics & tech. Read the full issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...
Can a nonproliferation norm survive violations by the country that championed it? New and #open-access in The Nonproliferation Review: Alan J. Kuperman’s “The global risks from US violation of HEU minimization: insights from norm theory” www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 1/2
🚨 Job Alert: We’re hiring for a research assistant at @carnegienpp.bsky.social. Come work with me and the rest of the team. Details below; apply by the 18th of August: carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/4169113
Research Assistant, Nuclear Policy Program - Washington, DC
Research Assistant Nuclear Policy Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a renowned international affairs institution, seeks a full-time research assistant to support its Washington, ...
carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com
My article “Anticipatory Arms Control for the AI Age" w/ @douglasbshaw.bsky.social & William C. Potter is now ungated @armscontrolnow.bsky.social. We explain why AI-enabled nuclear & biological weapons risks need a new forum for private-public sector dialogue. www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-07/...
Anticipatory Arms Control for the AI Age | Arms Control Association
armscontrol.org
What happens when nonproliferation rules don’t quite line up? New & #openaccess in the NPR by Kristoffer Burck, Barry de Vries, & Sannimari Veini on the BWC, CWC, & UNSCR 1540. They explain why more rules don’t always automatically mean better domestic legal implementation. doi.org/10.1080/1073...
"[R]espondents prioritized reducing civilian harm over maximizing the probability of success. [...] This suggests that collateral damage can directly erode the political support needed to sustain military campaigns over time." @herzogsm.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social
What Makes a Weapon Too Horrific to Use?
Editor's note: The "Short of War" Podcast discussing this article is AI-generated. Rules governing warfare are nearly as ancient as warfare itself. In the Iliad, Achilles loses favor with the gods an...
irregularwarfare.org
NATO’s Nuclear types: Vulnerability, defense investment, and alliance strategy preferences doi.org/10.31374/sjm... Paper in @sjms.bsky.social by Stephen Herzog, J. Luis Rodriguez and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social
NATO’s Nuclear Types: Vulnerability, Defense Investment, and Alliance Strategy Preferences | Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies
Members of nuclear alliances face myriad and complex demands. They must ensure that their nuclear-armed patron maintains adequate capabilities and resolve, while avoiding entrapment and entanglement.…
doi.org
My non-fiction debut "We Shall Outlast Them: Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West" is out today. It's the result of years of research, travel to a dozen countries, and countless conversations. Thank you @wwnorton.com and everyone who supported me along the way. wwnorton.com/books/978132...
1/2 Why do members of the US public reject some weapons even when they “work”? In a new piece for Irregular Warfare Initiative, @laurensukin.bsky.social, Dave Allison, & I explain why weapon choice & civilian harm can make force politically unsustainable. www.irregularwarfare.org/what-makes-a...
What Makes a Weapon Too Horrific to Use?
Editor's note: The "Short of War" Podcast discussing this article is AI-generated. Rules governing warfare are nearly as ancient as warfare itself. In the Iliad, Achilles loses favor with the gods an...
irregularwarfare.org
1/2 Why do members of the US public reject some weapons even when they “work”? In a new piece for Irregular Warfare Initiative, @laurensukin.bsky.social, Dave Allison, & I explain why weapon choice & civilian harm can make force politically unsustainable. www.irregularwarfare.org/what-makes-a...
What Makes a Weapon Too Horrific to Use?
Editor's note: The "Short of War" Podcast discussing this article is AI-generated. Rules governing warfare are nearly as ancient as warfare itself. In the Iliad, Achilles loses favor with the gods an...
irregularwarfare.org
In a new NPR article, Daesoo Kim, Jin Yoo, & Ku Kang introduce “exposure and disclosure” as a tool for countering CBRN threats. They use cases to show how revealing clandestine activities may impose costs that reduce the coercive value of CBRN. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
New #openaccess article in @sjms.bsky.social w/@jluisrodriguez.com & @laurensukin.bsky.social. We develop a typology of NATO member "nuclear types" & test w/survey of over 10k people across 10 countries. Cohesion depends on recognizing & managing differences. sjms.nu/articles/10....
New in the NPR! Peyman Asadzade analyzes 242 Khamenei speeches on Iran’s internal nuclear narrative. He identifies trends of sovereignty, scientific progress, critiques of Western double standards, and religious restraint. The article asks what survives after 2026. doi.org/10.1080/1073...
New #openaccess article in @sjms.bsky.social w/@jluisrodriguez.com & @laurensukin.bsky.social. We develop a typology of NATO member "nuclear types" & test w/survey of over 10k people across 10 countries. Cohesion depends on recognizing & managing differences. sjms.nu/articles/10....
🖊️ New policy paper, co-authored by our scholar Dominika Kunertova: How should NATO adapt to the age of full spectrum drone warfare? How can member states build a doctrine and supply chains to deploy drones more effectively than their adversaries? academic.oup.com/ia/article/1...
Why do nuclear weapons still shape US public attitudes toward nuclear energy? Sidra Hamidi traces how anti-nuclear movements forged this connection. She explores how today’s pro-nuclear advocates are turning against that framing to advance the “irrationality” of nuclear fear. doi.org/10.1080/1073...
No nukes: the evolving discourse of nuclear dualism
Why does the connection between nuclear weapons and nuclear energy continue to drive public attitudes towards nuclear energy in the United States? Conventional views on the dual (military and civil...
doi.org