In a new article from CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social and colleague Samuel Seitz, findings reveal how public opinion can play a significant role in shaping the credibility of nuclear threats. www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

2/2 The analysis draws on our @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social study from earlier this year. It uses a conjoint survey experiment to isolate how weapon type, civilian casualties, and operational effectiveness shape support for military strikes. doi.org/10.1093/jopr...

Too brutal for war: comparing rationales for weapon taboos

Abstract. What makes a weapon too horrific to use? This study investigates public attitudes toward the use of different weapon types using a conjoint surve

doi.org

1/2 Why do members of the US public reject some weapons even when they “work”? In a new piece for Irregular Warfare Initiative, @laurensukin.bsky.social, Dave Allison, & I explain why weapon choice & civilian harm can make force politically unsustainable. www.irregularwarfare.org/what-makes-a...

What Makes a Weapon Too Horrific to Use?

Editor's note: The "Short of War" Podcast discussing this article is AI-generated. Rules governing warfare are nearly as ancient as warfare itself. In the Iliad, Achilles loses favor with the gods an...

irregularwarfare.org

New research co-authored by DPIR’s @laurensukin.bsky.social finds NATO allies don’t approach nuclear security the same way. Vulnerability and military capacity shape whether states hedge, strengthen deterrence, or seek greater strategic independence: https://tinyurl.com/m5hz7jhk

New #openaccess article in @sjms.bsky.social w/@jluisrodriguez.com & @laurensukin.bsky.social. We develop a typology of NATO member "nuclear types" & test w/survey of over 10k people across 10 countries. Cohesion depends on recognizing & managing differences. sjms.nu/articles/10....

How effective is it when states claim they “didn’t do it”? Deniability is a common phenomenon in the gray zone. States can make aggression plausibly or implausibly deniable through combinations of transparent or obfuscating actors or means. In new research, we show how this affects escalation. 1/4

@politicsoxford.bsky.social’s @laurensukin.bsky.social has co-authored a paper in Security Studies arguing that denials — or hiding state responsibility in conflict (e.g. through cyberattacks or proxy groups) — make escalation more likely, but also more limited: https://tinyurl.com/34fpxur9

In a new International Studies Quarterly article, alongside Helen Webley-Brown, CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social reveals how U.S. political divisions at home are eroding global trust in America’s nuclear credibility, no matter which party is in power. academic.oup.com/isq/article/...

Divisions at Home, Broken Promises Abroad? How Domestic Politics Shapes the United States’ Nuclear Credibility

Abstract. How will the intensifying political challenges in the United States affect Washington’s nuclear credibility? Although the implications of US dome

academic.oup.com

The Trump administration—including by its recent criticism of NATO—has put US credibility under threat. A key question looking forward is: How recoverable might the US reputation be? (1/4)

Our new (open access) paper investigates weapons aversion across systems. We comprehensively compare attitudes about the use of cyber, conventional, cluster, chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, showing a clear preference hierarchy and lending insight into the underlying causes of aversion.

Stephen Herzog@herzogsm.bsky.social · 7mo ago

1/4 IR research on so-called “taboo” weapons often focuses on individual systems or very limited comparisons. In new @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social work w/Dave Allison and @laurensukin.bsky.social, we compare aversions across a broader range of weapons (6). #OpenAccess: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...

Piece w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social & @lanoszka.bsky.social out in Apr. 2026 issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution. We surveyed publics in 24 countries in 2023: Calibrated US restraint/support for Kyiv was reassuring. Strong resolve isn't the only thing that can reassure. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Consider applying to join Nuffield College and the Department of Politics and International Relations at Oxford as an associate professor in IR. This excellent post is for a non-tutorial fellowship (very little undergrad teaching). Please feel free to reach out with any questions. lnkd.in/eR6qBDNb.

Are deterrence and disarmament compatible? In a new paper with @jluisrodriguez.com & @herzogsm.bsky.social, we question the common deterrence-disarmament divide. With a survey of nuclear attitudes, we show publics around the world simultaneously support both policies. tinyurl.com/5cbf76cx

1/5 Great news! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is now #OpenAccess so that everyone can read it online. Thanks to generous support from @mitpress.bsky.social Direct to Open (D20). @managingtheatom.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social Check it out here: doi.org/10.7551/mitp...

Please help spread the word on this, especially to those who may be feeling cold winds towards their research. We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...

1/7 It's book publication day! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is out now from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series. Contents and discount codes below. @managingtheatom.bsky.social mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence. doi.org/10.1017/eis....

The old nuclear rulebook is out of date. From China's growing arsenal to a "crisis of faith" in US alliances, the world is facing a new, more complex nuclear landscape. Our discussion on all this and more with @laurensukin.bsky.social and Nicola Leveringhaus: tnsr.org/horns-of-a-d...

1/5 In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023. foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...

Reliable Not Reckless

Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.

foreignpolicy.com

💥 "Navigating the New Nuclear Map" 💥 The nuclear landscape is more complex than ever. Our multi-author roundtable chaired by @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social explores the evolving challenges, from Asia to Europe and the Middle East. 🌍⚛️ tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review

The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This…

tnsr.org

How are alliances like AUKUS and cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea reshaping the nuclear order? @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social introduce the essays and explore the effects of domestic politics and global competition. 📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

At War on the Rocks, Gregory Winger, @drmagomez.bsky.social, and I show that, while the Trump administration has been supportive of U.S. Indo-Pacific partners in rhetoric, it has been neglectful of the personnel and mechanisms that sustain alliances. warontherocks.com/2025/09/wash...

Washington’s Ironclad Commitments Are Rusting in the Indo-Pacific

The recent wave of meetings between U.S. officials and allies in the Indo-Pacific have been studies in the duality of American diplomacy under President

warontherocks.com

WARNING: An email account—“lauren.sukin.dr@hotmail.com”—has been created by the North Korean group Kimsuky to impersonate me. Please delete any emails you receive from this account. While it will soon be closed down, they are likely to create alternates.

Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine. We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

In a new article for the Journal of Conflict Resolution, CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social & colleagues examine data from 24 countries finding early support for the US in the Russo-Ukrainian war came largely from approval of its restrained aid to Ukraine journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War - Lauren Sukin, Stephen Herzog, Alexander Lanoszka, 2025

Decades of scholarship hold that great powers shore up global confidence during crises with strong demonstrations of resolve. A much smaller literature critique...

journals.sagepub.com

As great power competition in the Indo-Pacific intensifies, U.S. commitments to regional partners is under scrutiny. Our new article with @ghwinger.bsky.social & @laurensukin.bsky.social explores how the American public reacts to potential security crises. ⬇️ www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Allies and partners: US public opinion and relationships in the Indo-Pacific

Competition between China and the United States spurs renewed emphasis on security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. However, this development in security collaboration unfolds differently from the ...

tandfonline.com

As Washington turns the screws on trade policy and burden-sharing against even its closest allies, Gregory Winger, Miguel Alberto Gomez, and I have a new article out at Contemporary Security Policy on alliance dynamics and the willingness to aid partners during crises. Here are three key takeaways:

Seoul wants the bomb, China and North Korea are piling up warheads. What role should U.S. nuclear weapons play in Asia? Sam Seitz and I tackle this question in a new article at the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament. Read our open access article here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

To show resolve or restraint? That is the question for great powers facing major global crises. In a newly published paper, CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social & Alexander Lanoszka show the benefits of restraint for reassuring allies during crises. Open access ⤵️ doi.org/10.1093/isq/...

Credibility in Crises: How Patrons Reassure Their Allies

Abstracts. How do citizens of US allies assess different reassurance strategies? This article investigates the effects of US reassurance policies on public

doi.org

Had a great conversation with APLN last night on managing US extended deterrence in East Asia. You know it was good when the conference ended at 1am and you’re still thinking about it when you wake up! I love it when my job is talking about interesting problems with interesting people.