Joe Twyman
@joetwyman.bsky.social
Co-founder and director of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll. Former Head of Political at YouGov (2000-18). "Housewives' favourite pollster" - The Times.
Burnham begins. But will it actually make any difference? I will be on the Westminster Hour on Radio 4 at 10pm to discuss.
Launch the 5th generation podcasters and prepare for Mach 10. If feel the need. The need for... A discussion about the impact of hard drugs on the creative process in Hollywood.
War Movie Theatre@warmovietheatre.com · 2w agoWe've been called back to Top Gun! Happy Birthday America month rolls on with Tom Cruise's return to the cockpit to show how quick and easy a war with Iran would be. champ.ly/6fJqOkqp
Assuming you should dress for the job you want, I hope Wayne Rooney does indeed become the new host of 1970s Blankety Blank.
Very thought-provoking from Marie. Going off on a tangent, I think there is a really interesting* discussion to be had about the degree to which so many of these things are ever actually popular or unpopular in terms of true public opinion, beyond online discourse. * Perhaps only interesting to me.
Marie Le Conte@youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 3w agoo Father I have sinned and weighed in on some tedious online discourse, by which I mean - I defended still loving Hamilton and Parks and Rec in 2026 and still finding both joy and political purpose in both of them: youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/some-notes...
Congratulations to @drjennings.bsky.social on being elected as a new Fellow of the British Academy. Very well deserved.
The British Academy@britishacademy.bsky.social · 3w agoThe British Academy has elected 92 new Fellows in recognition of their outstanding contributions to the humanities and social sciences. Congratulations to all those elected today. Read the full announcement: https://bit.ly/4f64C4x
Quite fun to think someone not paying particularly close attention could have thought Prince Harry was there in the audience listening in?
As someone who grew up 15 minutes from the Clacton constituency, please note that for the next few months I am legally required to begin all public statements with 'As someone who grew up 15 minutes from the Clacton constituency...' Available for tours, weddings, birthday parties, bar mitzvahs
What can voting intention polls actually tell us about the state of public opinion, during what is such an unusual moment in British politics? Last night I had an in-depth with Petrie Hosken on this very subject, along with what the future might look like. youtu.be/XqzYjsCxzqM?...
Petrie Hosken | 30-Jun-26
YouTube video by TalkTV
youtu.be
I am not a religious person, but I do firmly believe Germany losing on penalties in the World Cup signifies the End of Days.
Should Andy Burnham call a new general election if he does become the new Prime Minister? Nearly two thirds (63%) of Brits think so, including more than half (56%) of those who voted Labour at the last election.
If England do make the final, who gets to go?
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · last mo.Betting odds imply an approx 1 in 3 (35%) chance of England making the World Cup semifinal on 14/15 July. About a 10-15% chance that England play Argentina in a World Cup semifinal on Wed 15th July, the day a new PM may take office. (The single most likely match of over a dozen+ permutations)
Keir Starmer himself demonstrated that you probably do not want to start as a new Prime Minister in July. A combination of staff (and school) holidays, the parliamentary recess and then conference season mean the first 100 days can pass extremely quickly.
While this may well be true. I can certainly see a scenario where the Conservatives under Badenoch lose a large number of seats to Reform at the next election. She resigns and her successor then does some form of coalition deal with Farage.
'The phoney war of the Labour leadership election is now over, and full battle, I'm sure, will commence.' @joetwyman.bsky.social explains the significance of Andy Burnham's 'very strong' electoral performance in Makerfield.
Politics is so often about momentum and the manner of Andy Burnham's victory clearly demonstrates the momentum is with him. But as we have seen over the last two years, delivering on potential is another matter entirely. Regardless, the Phoney War of the Labour leadership contest is now over.
Should social media be banned for under 16s? Two thirds of British adults support the idea in principle, but that support could well change as details on how the ban will actually work (or not!) become clear.
As broadcasting of the World Cup begins, I am reminded that at international football competitions there are only two emotions for the spectators in the crowd: 1) Total joy - to be demonstrated by shots of attractive young women. 2) Utter heartbreak - to be demonstrated by shots of crying children.
How important is defence as an issue for the general public? 12% place it in their top three most important issues facing the country, making it a third tier issue. Instead, for many voters, Healey's resignation will reinforce existing concerns around government priorities and competence.
It really feels like we have now reached a "No-Sided Ceasefire".
NY Times Pitchbot@nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 2mo agoNew test of ceasefire
I tell you what, I am not sure that those on the right in America have always been massively enthusiastic about the World Cup.
In Denton and Gorton "Get Starmer Out" was the key slogan of Reform's (unsuccessful) campaign. In Makerfield, however, if you really want to get Starmer out, voting for Burnham is the way to do that. But "Get Starmer Out Sooner" doesn't really strike me as the kind of slogan Labour will go for.
'How much for broadband and TV?' '£34 a month for the broadband and TV plus £17.99 a month for the telephone line.' 'I don't want the telephone line. Can I get it without?' 'Yes. Certainly.' 'How much is that? Just for broadband and TV?' '£51.99 a month.' 'That's the same price.' 'No it isn't.'
Boris Johnson stayed as Mayor of London for just over a year after rejoining the House of Commons as a London MP. Does Andy Burnham have to give up being Mayor of Manchester? (Serious question)
Jon Snow Declared King In The North - Game Of Thrones
ALT: Jon Snow Declared King In The North - Game Of Thrones
static.klipy.com
What impact will a change of leader have on the polls? The danger is it will be like a set of inflatables at children's party with a puncture: Any bounce will be very modest and short-lived, leaving some crying in disappointment, while to others the problems were clear from the start.
Ed Davey standing down for Andy Burnham really would be the ultimate political stunt.
Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 3mo agoA sign that Andy's route back remains uncertain is that lazy articles about how have gone from 'just randomly naming Labour MPs over retirement age in the north west' to 'just randomly naming Labour MPs in the north west'. Unclear what the next stage is. Ed Davey to stand down for Andy?
You can ask survey respondents for their views of Burnham, Rayner and Streeting but the only valid conclusion to draw from the findings is that the average person in the street (and the 50% of people less engaged) do not currently know much about any of them at all.
The Keeper (2018) is a perfectly fine film about this, but not nearly as great as it could be, given the real story. And I would say it definitely counts as a war movie @warmovietheatre.com. Plus the film's focus on forgiveness would have (unusually) gone down with my POW grandfather.
Jonathan Wilson@jonawils.bsky.social · 3mo ago70 years on from the FA Cup final in which he broke his neck, IWWIW looks at the incredible story of Bert Trautmann. #mcfc #facup #trautmann #iwwiw podfollow.com/1745066482
What next for Keir Starmer and the Labour government? I will be discussing the aftermath of last Thursday's elections at an @OVIDHealth event on Thursday morning (8.30 - 10:30) in central London. If you would like to come along you can register here: bit.ly/PatientsParl...