Will Jennings📉🗳️
@drjennings.bsky.social
I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, geography, place, trust. I run on espresso.
When I say the politics will become increasingly obvious... I mean look at this. If you want to unite the left/centre and split the Tories, without a big spending committment there's no better option.
Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 20h agoOn the substack this week.... I looked at the route back into the EU. It's going to become increasingly obvious that the politics works for a manifesto pledge. What are the barriers? What would a negotiation look like? How might another referendum play out? samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Average Labour lead now almost 5 points ahead of Reform....
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · 10h agoOpinium/Observer (7th-9th October fieldwork) has these party standings + leader approval results. 🌹 LAB 29% (-1) ➡️ REF 23% (-2) 🌳 CON 20% (+3) 🌍 GRN 9% (-2) 🔶 LD 9% (n/c) 🌹 Burnham +8 (n/c) 🌳 Badenoch 0 (n/c) 🔶 Davey -6 (n/c) ➡️ Farage -26 (-4) 🌍 Polanski -29 (-7)
Opinium/Observer (7th-9th October fieldwork) has these party standings + leader approval results. 🌹 LAB 29% (-1) ➡️ REF 23% (-2) 🌳 CON 20% (+3) 🌍 GRN 9% (-2) 🔶 LD 9% (n/c) 🌹 Burnham +8 (n/c) 🌳 Badenoch 0 (n/c) 🔶 Davey -6 (n/c) ➡️ Farage -26 (-4) 🌍 Polanski -29 (-7)
Thoughts on Holborn & St P: Not ideal Green territory. May's locals were a Labour-Green toss-up here, so with Labour's position improving under Burnham, a fairly comfortable hold was to be expected. But it means that in the places where the Greens actually beat Labour in May, they remain a threat.
Anand and UKICE have done remarkable work and made a huge contribution to public life. I'm not sure how he has found the energy to keep going, or the character to avoid going as mad as British politics. Proud to call Anand a friend and look forward to what comes next.
Anand Menon@anandmenon.bsky.social · 2d agoAn announcement. There will be plenty of time to reflect on what we've achieved, and on the fantastic colleagues who have helped us achieve it. But for now, sad news ukandeu.ac.uk/announcement... 1/2
oh my god I was going to joke "he's actually centre-left" and turns out he IS
POLITICO Europe@politico.eu · 2d agoVoters in the Peruvian town of Queropalca have chosen their new mayor: Hitler Mussolini Simeon Flores.
Dozens of local Facebook uncles are in the comments talking about burqas and two-tier justice. We may all have our own views on the policy, but what do these people want? It's a Reform council attempting to deal with an issue in a back-to-basics-no-nonsense style and they still aren't happy.
The 'bloc politics' idea has been useful in thinking about British politics lately but it tends to distract from the pretty clear ceilings on support for each of the parties...
Can't believe Donald Trump missed out on the Nobel Peace Prize again. There's always next year, I guess...
❗ There's a permanent, research and teaching lectureship over at the University of Surrey in the broad area of behaviour, attitudes, parties, etc. jobs.surrey.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...
Job Vacancy at the University of Surrey: Lecturer in Politics
The University of Surrey is a global community of ideas and people, dedicated to life-changing education and research. We are ambitious and have a bold vision of what we want to achieve - shaping ours...
jobs.surrey.ac.uk
The Holborn and St Pancras byelection shows that the Greens can still cause Labour some discomfort even though their national polling has fallen back lately - though one wonders whether voters will only entertain that in places where the vote on the right is weak.
‼️ Labour HOLD Holborn and St Pancras Labour: 45.0% (-3.9) Green: 32.7% (+22.3) Conservative: 7.0% (-0.2) Reform: 5.9% (-0.2) Liberal Democrats: 3.4% (-2.4) Restore: 2.5% (+2.5) Workers: 1.1% (+1.1)
This was a really good podcast with @gelliottmorris.com and @davidnir.com on how midterm horserace polls could be wrong -- in either direction. Really gets into the weeds in a great way. And as much as I generally hate video podcasts, this one has graphs www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-08...
The case for and against the polls
Elliott and David explain both sides of the current debate over the accuracy of the polls, and talk through the state of play in races for governor in nine states.
gelliottmorris.com
Kind of a buried lede in the results of this Supreme Court approval rating poll from Marquette: Overall support for Supreme Court expansion, which even Democratic politicians were dismissing as "radical" just a few years ago, is now at 53 percent today.marquette.edu/2026/09/marq...
Holborn and St Pancras by-election: Are green voters moving back to Labour?
Holborn and St Pancras by-election: Are green voters moving back to Labour?
The count is underway at the Holborn and St Pancras by-election
news.sky.com
Zack Polanski arrives at Holborn and St Pancras vote count
Zack Polanski arrives at Holborn and St Pancras vote count
The leader of the Green Party has arrived at the north London by-election count after his party conceded
news.sky.com
Just give me the results so I can sleep #byelectioninsomnia
Conceding defeat in “close second” means it can’t be that close.
Currently listening to democracy... (I was there, what a show).
Leonard Cohen - Democracy (Official Live in London 2008)
YouTube video by LeonardCohenVEVO
youtube.com
Got a strong feeling that Jon Ossoff is going to be the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028...
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2d agoOssoff says that Mike Collins has "hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office"
Other folks have noted this, but I just wanted to see it again myself. Look at how the income line predicting Rep pres vote share flattens & then reverses in the last 5 panels. ANES cumulative data.
