Chris Nehls

@nehls.bsky.social

Senior advisor @americalabs writes the First Branch Forecast. Congressional reform, democracy, civic tech. US History PhD. 3x Wahoo. Back from Japan. Let’s Go Mets. Cavs before LeBron. wants to know the exact dimensions of hell

“Consolidating all of our primaries on that date would have a much greater impact on voter turnout than any other rule change” Stop funding primary election reform already!

Jennifer N. Victor@jenvictor.bsky.social · 4h ago

America has a primary problem. In a new guest post on @misofact.bsky.social Rob Boatright, Caroline Tolbert, and Nathan Micahka describe the takeaway of their new book on the challenges and solutions to nominating candidates. misofact.substack.com/p/the-proble...

"the radicalization of the political right... better captures asymmetric change, identity-driven politics, and the mainstreaming of illiberalism...Concepts are never politically innocent and persisting with “polarization” risks both misdiagnosing and normalizing authoritarian threats."

Kevin Elliott@kjephd.bsky.social · last wk.

Cas is absolutely right. Here's a great new paper (open access, so freely available to all) that makes the case: doi.org/10.1017/S153...

An incredibly well-timed Landsat 9 pass captured the effects of yesterday’s catastrophic glacier collapse near the Nepal–Tibet border. The event was so massive that it was detected by seismometers around the world.

“mega-donors' influence doesn't primarily come from their ability to sway voters. As we've seen, advertising has remarkably limited persuasive effect. Instead, their leverage comes from convincing politicians that they need mega-donor money to win” It’s a political skill issue

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:

The reason why the tariff refunds went to corporations and not consumers is, like many things, because Congress. IF Congress had passed a law enacting the tariffs in the first place (Rs didn't want to), if Congress had passed a law mandating refunds for consumers, if if if. Congress didn't.

It's not some baroque or hyperbolic meta-argument about latent white supremacism in Western culture or capitalism or whatever. Musk literally believes white people are biologically superior to non-white people, simple as. It's dumb, it's wrong, it's evil, but it's not some complicated subterfuge.

I have seen repeated many times, including in scholarly literature, the idea that a) the Nagasaki attack was ordered strategically because the Japanese government had not responded to Hiroshima, and b) that Truman "ordered" the dropping of a second atomic bomb. Neither of these are true.

Excluding one case of double-bunked incumbents, 159 House Dems have been through their primaries to date and 5 lost (there are 11 states still to vote). That's a renomination rate of 96.9%. The post-WWII average for House is 98.3%. This is what gets much ballyhooed as a "bloodbath" in our system.

Reminder that when House members like Chuck Edwards leave, the Ethics Committee just packs up their investigation and puts it away and we don't know all that happened. Its an accountability dodge and Ethics should required to release what it has