Daniel Swain

@weatherwest.bsky.social

Weather and climate scientist focused on extreme events like floods, droughts, & wildfires on a warming planet. www.weatherwest.com

Dangerous and extreme heat will persist across the Southwest U.S. through tomorrow, before slowly migrating eastward across the central Plains and southeastern U.S. by this weekend. Monsoonal showers will help bring some relief from extreme temperatures across portions of the Desert Southwest.

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TONIGHT 6pm El Niño town hall: Join our climate scientist Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social, Mark Tamayo @ktvufox2.bsky.social, @caloes.bsky.social and host State Sen. Mike McGuire

Daniel Swain@weatherwest.bsky.social · 4d ago

On Tue, Aug 4 at 6pm PT, I'll be participating in a live virtual Town Hall event, hosted by CA State Senator Mike McGuire, on our rapidly-developing #ElNiño event and implications for California from 2026 into 2027. No RSVP required. See you there!

This session was, as always, recorded and is now available for viewing via the same link below! I will have at least three other wildfire and El Niño-focused live events over the next week in different venues (see my other posts for details).

Daniel Swain@weatherwest.bsky.social · 3d ago

At 1pm PT on Mon, Aug 3, I'll have a live update on the historic wildfire disaster that unfolded over the weekend in Spokane, Washington, including causes and context, then discuss the very active wildfire conditions currently present elsewhere in West.

I've got 3 live virtual public events on YouTube scheduled over next 8 days (see recent posts for links): 1) Aug 3, 1p PT: WA wildfire disaster & bigger picture 2) Aug 4, 6p: "Super El Niño Town Hall" (CA Sen. Mike McGuire) 3) Aug 10, 1p: El Niño update: The latest forecast

At 1pm PT on Mon, Aug 3, I'll have a live update on the historic wildfire disaster that unfolded over the weekend in Spokane, Washington, including causes and context, then discuss the very active wildfire conditions currently present elsewhere in West.

Active wildfire conditions worsen across U.S. West, including historic wildfire disaster in Spokane - YouTube

The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 08/03/2026 topics: ...

youtube.com

On Tue, Aug 4 at 6pm PT, I'll be participating in a live virtual Town Hall event, hosted by CA State Senator Mike McGuire, on our rapidly-developing #ElNiño event and implications for California from 2026 into 2027. No RSVP required. See you there!

Super El Nino Town Hall

Join Senator McGuire, along with climate scientists, meteorologists, and disaster preparedness experts, for a virtual Super El Niño Town Hall to learn how California is preparing for very strong or “super” El Niño weather patterns and events this fall.

youtube.com

18Z HRRR-Smoke model predicts wildfire smoke to cause "Unhealthy" (red) to "Very Unhealthy" (purple) AQI in the major population centers of the Pacific NW and SW BC on Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure brings NE winds. Also a major heat risk for Portland, OR, with temps in the upper 90s .

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I've got 3 live virtual public events on YouTube scheduled over next 8 days (see recent posts for links): 1) Aug 3, 1p PT: WA wildfire disaster & bigger picture 2) Aug 4, 6p: "Super El Niño Town Hall" (CA Sen. Mike McGuire) 3) Aug 10, 1p: El Niño update: The latest forecast

On Mon, Aug 10 at 1pm PT, I'll host another livestream focused solely on El Niño. I'll offer a deep dive into El Niño's remarkable trajectory to date, the extraordinary latest forecasts, and additional thoughts on implications from California to global scales.

"Super" El Niño update: The latest regarding a potentially historic event and its implications - YouTube

The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 08/10/2026 topic: E...

youtube.com

At 1pm PT on Mon, Aug 3, I'll have a live update on the historic wildfire disaster that unfolded over the weekend in Spokane, Washington, including causes and context, then discuss the very active wildfire conditions currently present elsewhere in West.

Active wildfire conditions worsen across U.S. West, including historic wildfire disaster in Spokane - YouTube

The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 08/03/2026 topics: ...

youtube.com

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

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#OldTrailsFire in Spokane now appears to be most destructive wildfire in WA State history by wide margin (650+ structures lost), w/additional TBD losses nearby. Other PacNW fires actively burning, though less destructive, are far larger & could burn for weeks amid severe drought.

A dangerous wind shift (visible on radar imagery) has just occurred in #Spokane, WA, where major wildfire disaster is currently unfolding. Three separate major fires (circled) near or within city limits have already caused major structure loss & chaotic, expanding evacs. #WAwx

In addition to the potential unfolding WUI wildfire disaster in Spokane, WA, numerous other large & fast-moving fires (existing & new) are blowing up under extremely critical fire weather conditions & severe drought conditions from eastern slopes of Cascades eastward into ID/MT.

Snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Data Portal depicting numerous large smoke plumes and fire heat signatures (red, orange, and pink pixels) across eastern WA/OR, ID, MT, and southern British Columbia.

In addition to the potential unfolding WUI wildfire disaster in Spokane, WA, numerous other large & fast-moving fires (existing & new) are blowing up under extremely critical fire weather conditions & severe drought conditions from eastern slopes of Cascades eastward into ID/MT.

Snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Data Portal depicting numerous large smoke plumes and fire heat signatures (red, orange, and pink pixels) across eastern WA/OR, ID, MT, and southern British Columbia.

On Tue, Aug 4 at 6pm PT, I'll be participating in a live virtual Town Hall event, hosted by CA State Senator Mike McGuire, on our rapidly-developing #ElNiño event and implications for California from 2026 into 2027. No RSVP required. See you there!

Super El Nino Town Hall

Join Senator McGuire, along with climate scientists, meteorologists, and disaster preparedness experts, for a virtual Super El Niño Town Hall to learn how California is preparing for very strong or “super” El Niño weather patterns and events this fall.

youtube.com

With numerous large fires already burning, the weekend fire wx outlook is concerning for interior PacNW (Cascades crest eastward). A dry cold frontal passage will bring strong winds/low humidity against severe drought backdrop, leading to "extremely critical" risk. #ORwx #WAwx

Fire weather risk outlook from NOAA SPC for Saturday. It shows a large region of elevated to critical risk, with a portion of eastern Washington designed as "extremely critical risk"--the highest level.

With numerous large fires already burning, the weekend fire wx outlook is concerning for interior PacNW (Cascades crest eastward). A dry cold frontal passage will bring strong winds/low humidity against severe drought backdrop, leading to "extremely critical" risk. #ORwx #WAwx

Fire weather risk outlook from NOAA SPC for Saturday. It shows a large region of elevated to critical risk, with a portion of eastern Washington designed as "extremely critical risk"--the highest level.

Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.

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Remarkable amount of fire on the ground, and smoke in the air, this evening. In this satellite snapshot, numerous large fires (red thermal detections) and smoke plumes stretch from Great Basin northward into British Columbia; fire weather conditions will worsen this weekend.

Current snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Data Portal showing extent of Thu fire activity in Western U.S.

If the latest FIRIS perimeter for #WoodsideFire is accurate, this would be one of the stranger fire footprints & trajectories I've seen. Under strong NWly winds parallel to coastline, it appears fire has spotted *over oceanic coves* & into downwind forest...twice!! Whoa.

Snapshot of map showing fire footprint on Watch Duty, annotated.