Zongyuan “Zoe” Liu
@zoe-liu.bsky.social
Senior Fellow @cfr.org; PhD, CFA. Award-winning Author. Opinion my own.
I recently had the pleasure to join Bonnie Glaser at GMF on her podcast to discuss the rational and limits of China's push to internationalize the RMB. Let me know what you agree and what you disagree with me! youtube.com/watch?v=UDQr...
China Global Podcast - Ep 125 ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu
YouTube video by The German Marshall Fund of the United States
youtube.com
“For China, stability is not a soft preference. It is the precondition for continued national strengthening.” Read @zoe-liu.bsky.social on why the war in Iran poses a threat to China’s strategic interests:
What the Iran War Means for China
Beijing fears American volatility more than American power.
foreignaffairs.com
“Without moral leadership to complement its material strength, China’s global role remains that of a power to be managed—and, perhaps, feared—but not one to be followed,” writes @zoe-liu.bsky.social.
China’s Long Economic War
How Beijing builds leverage for indefinite competition.
foreignaffairs.com
@zoe-liu.bsky.social examines China’s short- and long-term goals—and the factors that will lead to success in the U.S.-Chinese competition.
China’s Long Economic War
How Beijing builds leverage for indefinite competition.
foreignaffairs.com
US-China Relations: What Comes Next? Hear from our panel of experts during our Rapid Response webinar on November 3 at 12 pm ET 🌐 Thomas Christensen 🌐 @edwardfishman.bsky.social 🌐 Zongyuan Zoe Liu 🌐 Matt Turpin 🌐 @juliangewirtz.bsky.social Watch the conversation: youtube.com/live/PoraRsK...
US-China Relations: What Comes Next?
YouTube video by Columbia SIPA
youtube.com
Beijing may have learned to navigate a tariff war with the United States, but the true test lies in whether it can shift from a defensive posture to a sustainable new model of growth, argues @zoe-liu.bsky.social.
China Can Fight a Trade War, but Its Real Test Is Growth Reform
The Chinese economy has shown resilience despite external headwinds as the Trump administration ramps up its trade war, but long-term structural challenges remain.
cfr.org
My latest at @foreignpolicy.com explains why dollar-backed stablecoins are economic challenge and political threat viewed by the CPC. I show China's evolving policies towards blockchain and crypto. I also explain how China is most likely to respond. foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/19/c...
China Is Worried About Dollar-Backed Stablecoins
Beijing is speeding up plans to create systems it can monitor.
foreignpolicy.com
Exciting news: GOD, GUNS, and SEDITION is out today in paperback! My @cfr.org and @columbiaup.bsky.social book, co-authored with @hoffmanbruce.bsky.social, tells the story of far-right terrorism in America and beyond—a topic that sadly remains as relevant as ever. bookshop.org/p/books/god-...
God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America
Far-Right Terrorism in America
bookshop.org
I am happy that the paperback of "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is now available! Get a copy and chat with me, or to impress your in-laws! 😊 a.co/d/al0rW31
My latest piece @projectsyndicate.bsky.social explains China's sentiment to Trump's tariffs. BJ views it has weathered it well and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced its long game is paying off. Trump's tariffs have also turbocharged China's tech ambitions.
Project Syndicate@projectsyndicate.bsky.social · last yr.Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics have handed the Chinese government a propaganda win and, more importantly, a strategic edge, argues @zoe-liu.bsky.social.
Next on our Forward Thinkers list is @zoe-liu.bsky.social, Senior Fellow for China Studies @cfr.org.
Giving China a stake in Ukraine’s reconstruction could transform it from a passive pro-Russia bystander into an active participant in peacemaking, write @zoe-liu.bsky.social and Thomas Graham.
What Role for China in Ukraine? | by Thomas Graham & Zongyuan Zoe Liu - Project Syndicate
Thomas Graham & Zongyuan Zoe Liu say that while the Chinese have benefited strategically from Russia's war, they could gain more from peace.
project-syndicate.org
Re President Xi's state visit to Russia, my colleague @cfr.org Tom Graham and I wrote @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on China's role in Ukraine. Trump said Xi can help end the war. We beg the difference. We show why China is needed for an enduring peace but cannot swiftly deliver an end to the war.
Project Syndicate@projectsyndicate.bsky.social · last yr.China benefits strategically as long as the war stays within Ukraine, the nuclear risk remains low, and its “unlimited partner,” Russia, does not lose, note @cfr.org's Thomas Graham and @zoe-liu.bsky.social.
What's happening with the trade war and geopolitical competition with China? Next on the @csis.org Capital Cable #112 featuring: ▪️ @zoe-liu.bsky.social ▪️ Evan Medeiros ▪️ @victordcha.bsky.social ▪️ Mark Lippert 📆 5/8 • 9:30 am EDT Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQlb...
The Trade War and Geopolitical Competition with China | The Capital Cable #112
YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies
youtube.com
Several news stories today report that China is signaling openness to trade talks, which fits with patterns of Chinese diplomacy. As I wrote recently: "Beijing has shown a strong capacity for retaliation and a tactical openness to negotiation, but not a willingness to kowtow."
Zongyuan “Zoe” Liu@zoe-liu.bsky.social · last yr.My latest @foreignaffairs.com I explain why this time Beijing, if necessary, is ready to decouple from the US. Chinese leadership harbor no illusion that China can win a trade war with the US. But they are willing to risk one that Trump might lose. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...
As I argued in my latest @foreignaffairs.com article, the concentration of authority allows the Chinese leader to make sweeping policy decisions unchallenged and to reverse course just as swiftly. Re"China signals opening for trade talks with US" on.ft.com/4d7EovN
China signals opening for trade talks with US
State media message suggests softening of Beijing’s position, say analysts
on.ft.com
Beijing has spent years preparing for an economic confrontation with Washington, writes @zoe-liu.bsky.social. “Unlike during the first Trump administration, China is now, if necessary, ready to decouple from the United States.”
How China Armed Itself for the Trade War
Beijing’s high-risk approach to its economic confrontation with Washington.
foreignaffairs.com
"the United States will always run a trade deficit with China because Americans have no desire to reclaim low-end manufacturing jobs from Chinese factories. The challenge Trump faces is how to structure that deficit in a politically durable way"
Zongyuan “Zoe” Liu@zoe-liu.bsky.social · last yr.My latest @foreignaffairs.com I explain why this time Beijing, if necessary, is ready to decouple from the US. Chinese leadership harbor no illusion that China can win a trade war with the US. But they are willing to risk one that Trump might lose. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...
My latest @foreignaffairs.com I explain why this time Beijing, if necessary, is ready to decouple from the US. Chinese leadership harbor no illusion that China can win a trade war with the US. But they are willing to risk one that Trump might lose. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...
How China Armed Itself for the Trade War
Beijing’s high-risk approach to its economic confrontation with Washington.
foreignaffairs.com
I recently had the privilege of joining @bilalhafeez.bsky.social on Macro Hive to discuss a wide range of issues in the context of US-China trade tensions. I enjoyed the conversation greatly! We covered how, why, and broader implications. Check it out and share with me your thoughts! 🙂 @cfr.org
@bilalhafeez.bsky.social · last yr.Great chat with @zoe-liu.bsky.social on all things US - China macrohive.com/hive-podcast...
At a @cfr.org briefing with my distinguished colleagues, I explained how China’s leadership is prepared to respond to rising trade tensions despite not wanting a trade war and why China has the flexibility to pivot quickly. youtube.com/shorts/RtuYb...
China's been preparing for a Trump trade-war scenario for years
YouTube video by Council on Foreign Relations
youtube.com
@adamposen.bsky.social convincingly explains why the Trump admin may have chosen to go to an unwinnable trade war. "U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy will, and the suffering will only increase if the United States escalates." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-China tariff fight.
foreignaffairs.com
I had the privilege to write for The International Economy amid other prominent thinkers discussing the proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord. I argue it is not a magic wand. As it is envisioned, it is unlikely to achieve the desired goal of trade rebalance. Full collection in pdf:
international-economy.com
Recent events made me think of a @foreignpolicy.com piece I wrote in 2022 on how China prepares for an economic war. While this piece has aged well, I am not happy. I am saddened normal people & businesses are becoming collateral damages in great power competitions. foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/16/c...
China Is Hardening Itself for Economic War
Beijing is trying to close economic vulnerabilities out of fear of U.S. containment.
foreignpolicy.com
At a recent @cfr.org event, I discussed with my colleague Rush Doshi why China is NOT desperate for a deal with the Trump administration. A deal is something nice to have, but not a must have. This time China is more prepared, experienced, and capable of retaliation. youtu.be/R8wc3MUWj1Q?...
Why Trump's China tariffs could backfire
YouTube video by Council on Foreign Relations
youtu.be
My latest @foreignpolicy.com on what it takes to get a Trump-Xi grand bargain. To succeed in negotiations with China, Trump administration needs to present Chinese leadership with a dilemma rather than a direct confrontation. @cfr.org 🧵1/9 foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/29/t...
Can Trump Strike a Grand Deal With Beijing?
A bargain between the two superpowers could preserve global peace. But what would it cost?
foreignpolicy.com
The United States needs to act now to maintain its leadership in outer space, argues a new CFR Task Force. Read the recommendations for how to make space a national priority:
The United States Must Address Challenges to Its Leadership in Space
U.S. leadership in space is critical to U.S. national security, leadership, hard and soft power, and to the security and prosperity of the American people, argues a new CFR Task Force.
cfr.org
Trump's foreign policy announcements have made me think about a game most of us have played: Monopoly. 🎩 I wrote about this in my @foreignpolicy.com piece, in the context of exploring how Trump and Xi could to redefine US-China relations.
Andy Langenkamp@andylangenkamp.bsky.social · last yr."Chinese FDI in the US has dropped by 97% since 2016. Returning to 2016 levels, adjusted for inflation, would require approximately $35bn in new investments. Similarly, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has reduced its holdings of US Treasury debt by more than 1/3 since 2016"
“In the West, money influences politics, but in China it is the opposite: politics influences money.” Read Zongyuan Zoe Liu on what it will take to reverse China’s present economic stasis:
China’s Real Economic Crisis
The Chinese economy is stuck. Following Beijing’s decision, in late 2022, to abruptly end its draconian “zero COVID” policy, many observers assumed that China’s growth engine would rapidly reignite. A...
foreignaffairs.com