Paul Johnson
@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social
From August, Provost, The Queen’s College, Oxford. Previously director, Institute for Fiscal Studies. Author “Follow the Money”
Try having been IFS director for nearly 15 years!
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · 3w agoMy entire twenty years of thinking, writing and sometimes doing public policy has been half the time about asking "this enormous tax cut you propose, you don't know how to pay for it do you?", and it's becoming incredibly tedious
It was inspiring speaking with the apprentices. A really impressive group of young people. All genuinely passionate about what they were doing. But my goodness so tough to get the apprenticeships. According to the employers and colleges 100+ applicants for each place.
Angela 🐱💙 💛🌻@hollia.bsky.social · last wk.@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social Just wanted to say how much I've enjoyed listening to your pieces on apprenticeships on #BBCPM this week. So many enthusiastic young people enjoying what they're doing. 👏 Comment from @evanhd.bsky.social saying how shockingly good you were at reporting made me 🤭
I got obsessed with this article. A 3 day train trip to Wales *from* £11,600 pp. Highlights include a bus trip to the Welsh hills and a walk on Barmouth beach.
Hetan Shah@hetanshah.bsky.social · 4w agoThis 3 day train trip through Wales is £11,600 PER PERSON and that’s got me wondering if I could get Delay Repay to work in my favour www.thetimes.com/article/31ea...
“Where they have been implemented in other countries, rent controls have led to lower availability of private rental housing, reductions in quality, and more households living in properties that do not suit their needs.” ifs.org.uk/articles/do-...
Do rent controls work? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
We highlight the key theoretical predictions about rent controls and summarise what empirical research reveals about their effects in practice.
ifs.org.uk
The Amelia Fletcher episode of the excellent Econ to Icon podcast notes just how competitive UK supermarkets are internationally (and hence how much lower prices are). I hope cost of living policies don't take the form od distortionary price controls in the grocery market.
Paul Johnson@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social · 4mo agoI’m lost for words. Never thought I’d see UK govt trying to set food prices. This is a hugely efficient and competitive sector. What about knock on effects on other prices, smaller shops etc And of course say they want to protect farmers. Please be serious
Agree with all this excellent advice from @chrisgiles.ft.com - don’t try to cut inflation through subsidies - don’t use accounting fiddles to raise defence spending - don’t use “flexibility” in fiscal rules - do focus on whole economy, not manufacturing - don’t heap even more tax on high earners
Chris Giles@chrisgiles.ft.com · 2mo agoshould avoid. Number 1 is something the new PM seems unable to grasp... www.ft.com/content/9df2...
Mr Burnham seems to have suggested: - raising income tax personal allowance; - much more spending on social care; - more defence spending (Healey as ChX); - no end to triple lock; - keeping to fiscal rules; - etc Either he can’t deliver this or we’re in for big tax hikes
This is exceptionally good, even by Sam’s exceptionally high standards.
Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 3mo agoNew post out: "The gap that never closes" I've spent much of my career trying to reduce the rich/poor gap in education. Nothing's worked. Which has led me to the conclusion that we're thinking about inequality the wrong way... (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
'The bigger the inequality in incomes, the bigger the inequality in opportunity' @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social joins us on the podcast to look at what has happened to income and wealth inequality in the UK and how Britain compares with other countries. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Me on interim report of pensions commission. - fails to mention (huge) impact of immigration; - overstates problem of cashing out pension pots; - in my view is misleading on tax relief; - doesn't address affordability of higher pension contributions for low earners www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
Experts looking at pensions policy need to see the full picture
The interim report from a government commission ignores the implications of immigration, is unfair to the wealthy and expects too much of lower earners
thetimes.com
Three ways to improve high streets by *raising* business rates: 1. Higher rates on long-empty shops, to force realistic rents 2. End exemption for charity shops. 3. Make landlords pay when candy/vape shops vanish with unpaid rates. They'll ensure rates are paid up-front.
Our quickfire thoughts on what the Milburn review means for cities and how the Govt should think about the opportunities for young people in its urban agenda. As an aside, refreshing to go through a 200+ page Review that is so incisive and well-written 🤯 Thread to follow 👇
Centre for Cities@centreforcities.bsky.social · 4mo agoMore than one million young people are now not in education, employment or training. Our response to the Milburn Review argues that place matters, and that cities will be central to any long-term solution to the NEET challenge 👇 buff.ly/Jfhvfd3
The need to address inequality has never been more urgent. In Challenging Inequalities, @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social explains how we've arrived at such a perilous spot—& how we can change course to achieve better outcomes for all. Out now! Read a free preview: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
"Challenging Inequalities". Do buy it! Will Hutton has just called it "one of the great works of social science this century". It is also according to @matthewsyed.bsky.social a "wonderfully clear and readable little book". Paul Collier: "a superb critique of British public policy"
Princeton University Press@princetonupress.bsky.social · 5mo ago@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social's Challenging Inequalities takes a comprehensive look at inequalities and why they matter. Out now! Learn more: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco... #Sociology
Agree 100% with @jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes@jdportes.bsky.social · 4mo ago- Subsidising consumption in the face of a supply shock - reducing incentives to drive less/switch to EVs - using up limited fiscal space to help better-off drivers rather than the most vulnerable. Hard to think of a worse policy right now.
It would be great if the government could spend some time trying to solve the many, many real problems facing the UK – instead of imaginary ones. UK retail operates on *tiny* margins – averaging around 4p in the £1. Supermarkets are cheap and efficient: food is expensive because inputs cost more.
David Higham@oldtrotter.bsky.social · 4mo agoSo we are heading back to the policies of Labour in the 1970s
I’m lost for words. Never thought I’d see UK govt trying to set food prices. This is a hugely efficient and competitive sector. What about knock on effects on other prices, smaller shops etc And of course say they want to protect farmers. Please be serious
David Higham@oldtrotter.bsky.social · 4mo agoSo we are heading back to the policies of Labour in the 1970s
Quite. We have lost more than 1% GDP in fuel duty over last 20 years. Every chancellor for 15 years has promised at least to maintain real value of duty. Not one has done so. And now this govt backs down at first sign of trouble. Expensive & poorly targeted
Ben Zaranko@benzaranko.bsky.social · 4mo agoIMF staff approve of the UK government's "prudent" approach towards energy support - so far. A cut/freeze in fuel duties (i.e. a broad based price subsidy, that wouldn't be time limited) would run contrary to their advice.
If you missed it last week, check out our work on how a national minimum wage shows up in the very different Labour markets of UK cities, and what this means for future rates
Pay check: The minimum wage in British cities - Centre for Cities
New Centre for Cities analysis shows that rising National Living Wage rates are having very different effects across UK cities and towns.
centreforcities.org
Centre for Cities@centreforcities.bsky.social · 4mo agoA single national minimum wage interacts very differently with local economies. This map shows the minimum wage now exceeds 80% of median pay in some cities, while remaining closer to OECD norms in parts of the Greater South East. Read more 👇 buff.ly/5AWPlJJ
Remarkable chart showing huge differences in effects of min wage. More than a quarter at or near min wage in places like Doncaster (where it’s >80% of median). Just one in ten in Reading, Oxford etc. where it’s <60% of median. Obvious risks to some labour markets.
Rob Johnson@rjson.bsky.social · 4mo agoJust one example on how the trajectory of a single headline rate has affected urban areas very differently. Some places it hasn't really altered the bottom of the local Labour market. Others, more and more workers are being brought within touching distance.
I was still on my 6th at age 40 - if you only count Wilson once.
Chairman Moët@chairmanmoet.bsky.social · 5mo agoJust thinking about how at the age of 21 I had lived under 5 PMs and how my daughter, who is 12, has already lived under 6.
Courts ruling that wholly different jobs should be paid the same ignore economic realities. Increases cost & uncertainty for business. Will raise costs for all. If govt really, genuinely cares about economic growth and cost of living they’d amend the legislation. www.thetimes.com/article/51e0...
Equal pay claims ignore economic reality
Court cases seeking equal pay for work of equal value have become so surreal they will end up hurting everyone except the lawyers
thetimes.com
Call me old fashioned and yes there were loads of social problems as a consequence of what happened but 2.6 per cent average annual economic growth would be nice
Jason Herbert@herberthistory.bsky.social · 5mo agoYou're Gen X. You can bring back one thing from the 80s. What is it?
Such an irresponsible post, stoking a hazy conspiracy theory and undermining trust in the NHS for attention.
A new #book “Challenging Inequalities” – How We Got Stuck and Where We Go Next – by Prof. Paul Johnson @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social Apr 28, 2026 @princetonupress.bsky.social press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
Important thread. I’d assumed appointments must have happened by now. But no national statistician for a year and no chair of UKSA for almost as long is not good. This may not be the key issue, but I have written about the potential costs of offering v uncompetitive salaries for these posts.
Hetan Shah@hetanshah.bsky.social · 5mo agoGood data is essential for policy. Today it’s been a year since we had a permanent National Statistician. No news on what is happening with the current recruitment which began Oct 2025. This is an under the bonnet issue that points to state failure 🧵 uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/stateme...
