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The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

Official account for Britain’s leading independent economic research institute. https://ifs.org.uk/

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Jakob Schneebacher@jschneebacher.bsky.social · 10h ago

How are firms responding to the ongoing oil price shock, and how does their response differ from the one to the 2021-2022 gas price shock? Read our @theifs.bsky.social comment to find out: ifs.org.uk/articles/how... 1/2

How are UK firms responding to the ongoing oil supply disruptions? | Institute for Fiscal Studies

New evidence shows the current energy crisis has affected fewer firms than in 2022; two months in, exposed firms responded mainly by raising prices.

ifs.org.uk

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · 11h ago

NEW: The current energy crisis has so far affected fewer firms than in 2022, new evidence shows. 📗 @trfetzer.com, @christinavpalmou.bsky.social, @jschneebacher.bsky.social & @iyotzov.bsky.social show that exposed firms responded in the first two months mainly with increased prices and inventories:

Quote from IFS Associate Director Jakob Schneebacher: "So far, the 2026 energy price shock has been narrower and less damaging than the 2022 crisis. Higher oil prices seem to have hit the minority of firms that use oil intensively. Based on data up to April, affected firms were more likely to raise their prices, passing on some of the cost increases to customers, and increase their inventories. We have not yet seen widespread effects on firms’ balance sheets or investment decisions, as were seen over the course of the 2022 crisis. But we will need to monitor the effects on firms over the coming months, especially if the most recent spikes in oil prices in July are maintained."
Christine Farquharson@ckfarquharson.bsky.social · last wk.

Technical education from 14: the issues to solve are clear - high NEETs, mismatch of training & jobs. Vocational education is a plausible place to look for solutions. But employers are hard to engage. And this adds to near-constant churn, which makes vocational education even harder to navigate.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · last wk.

25-year-olds today are less likely to be in employment than other recent generations, following years of broadly stable employment rates. This decline is especially driven by men, and is connected to the recent rise in the NEET (not in employment, education or training) rate.

Chart shows employment rates for 25-year-olds, by birth cohort and gender. Title states: "At 74%, the overall employment rate for those in their mid 20s is lower than other recent generations."
Jakob Schneebacher@jschneebacher.bsky.social · last wk.

@johnnyrunge.bsky.social and @econromesh.bsky.social might be particularly interested in this part of the update. (Link to the dashboard at the end of the thread.)

Jakob Schneebacher@jschneebacher.bsky.social · 2w ago

Finally, we wanted to give policymakers an easier way to engage with industry-level estimates than the usual appendix tables. So we built a narrative dashboard. Users can explore the estimates industry by industry, and see the assumptions needed for them to cohere into a single story. 9/

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social · last wk.

‘There's a whole menu of different things that can be meant by devolution’ 🎙️ IFS Associate Director, David Phillips, breaks down the spectrum of devolution, from operating centrally-set policies, to spending autonomy, to revenue and tax devolution.

Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 2w ago

This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.

Eduin Latimer@eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 4w ago

3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.

A bar chart showing different types of benefit spending as a % of GDP
Nick Ridpath@nickridpath.bsky.social · 2w ago

Great piece from Max. One noteworthy point on both the VAT cut and today’s bus fare cap is both costs are mostly being covered by cuts to capital spending. There’s a pattern emerging of increasing shifts towards day-to-day spending (and tax cuts) as a focus

Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 2w ago

We have a comment in the Times today on how yesterday's VAT cut will be paid for. The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out

Max Warner@maxwarner.bsky.social · 2w ago

We have a comment in the Times today on how yesterday's VAT cut will be paid for. The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out

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