Latest at @fiftyplusone.news: We built a dataset tracking every primary endorsement from Trump, progressive groups, party committees, women’s groups, and pro-Israel groups. Halfway through the season, here's who's winning. 🧵 blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...

50+1 is very happy to publish this analysis of 2026 primary candidates from @meredithconroy.bsky.social @tsyang27.bsky.social & Cooper Burton, following the tradition of similar projects from FiveThirtyEight. What types of candidates are winning 2026 primaries? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...

We tracked every candidate in the 2026 primaries. Here's who voters are nominating.

Our original dataset tracks endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race to reveal how party leaders and ideological groups are faring.

blog.fiftyplusone.news

Latest in House exodus from @fiftyplusone.news: A record number of sitting House members are running for other offices — and losing in the primaries. Many chose to enter crowded primary fields, and a dozen have already failed to secure their party's nomination. open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...

New: House members are losing their bids for higher office at a historically high rate. What's going on? We dive in, with data going back over 30 years. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/house-memb...

House members keep losing their bids for higher office

This year’s primary features an unusually high percentage of competitive House members running for other offices, and their track record is not very good

blog.fiftyplusone.news

Hello! I've been lurking on Bluesky for years but finally decided to make it official. Posts before this one are migrated from my X account, with varying levels of success.

Excited to carry on the Trump Score name with @VoteHub! I gathered Trump's positions on 282 floor votes in 2025 to calculate how often each member of Congress agreed with the president, and dug into what issues and dynamics have dominated floor action in Trump's second term. 🧵

In a new analysis for @VoteHub, @marywitha4 and I dug into county-level turnout in VA, PA, and NJ to explore off-year turnout trends, and how electorates changed after the 2016 election. (Spoiler: suburban voters love to vote.)

Things that were not on my bingo card today lol https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1952837234891301218

Reunited with my first chart love, the Congress scatterplot! Excited to share that I've been contributing to the Hunter Index, a nonprofit covering politicians' finances. Check out my data viz for our new series: https://huntrjay.substack.com/p/exclusive-how-politicians-wealth

Along with the rest of my incredible colleagues at 538, I was laid off today. Everyone on this team taught me so much, and made me a better writer, editor, and coworker every day. I can't believe it's only been a year and a half, but it's been a great one.

Do... Do Trump's employees have serial numbers? (Severance-coded) https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/remarks-by-president-trump-at-executive-order-signing/ h/t @holly_fuong

With full attendance and Massie voting against him, Johnson can only afford 1 GOP present vote. 2+ present = no majority. 5+ would give Jeffries the majority. In comparison, McCarthy won in 2023 with 6 GOP present votes, Pelosi in 2021 with 3 Dems present, 2 Dems against.

In 538's latest, Mary Radcliffe and Cooper Burton took a deep dive into the polling, politics and pros and cons of some of the leading Harris VP candidates. Read the full story here! https://abcnews.go.com/538/8-potential-kamala-harris-vp-picks-bring-table/story?id=112280594

Happy primary day, Pennsylvania! Polls close at 8pm Eastern, and the 538 election night live blog is up and running: https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/pennsylvania-primaries-2024/?id=109523463

This is certainly a new dynamic reflecting the majority's unprecedented fragility and how hardline conservatives may have overplayed their hand in this Congress. Read the full story here! https://abcnews.go.com/538/feels-government-shut/story?id=108891202

We also heard a lot about Johnson relying on Democratic votes. That's not unprecedented (see Ryan, Boehner), but there WAS something unusual this year – it's the only annual funding bill in at least 25 years to violate the Hastert rule, with a majority of the majority opposing.

It's primary night in Ohio and Illinois (and more!) -- our live blog is in full swing with live results and analysis. https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/illinois-ohio-primaries-2024/?id=108246857

Were your student loans forgiven under the Biden administration? @MonicaBPotts is looking for folks to interview for a story. Drop your info here: https://abcnews.go.com/538/student-loans-forgiven-hear/story?id=108063401

Nikki Haley's campaign exposed cracks in Trump's GOP ... but could also help keep the party together. @meredithconroy_ tackled this, and what Haley's run has to tell us about women in politics. https://abcnews.go.com/538/haleys-campaign-exposed-cracks-trumps-gop/story?id=107876073

A month after New Hampshire, Trump is poised to take another step toward the nomination in South Carolina on Saturday. @geoffreyvs's race preview digs into why Haley's home state looks like it's Trump's to lose. https://t.co/vuKYUXfyo6

We rounded up recent polls on the news of the week to see what Americans think about extreme weather, Israel aid, the congressional border deal, the Super Bowl and Valentine's Day. Check out the latest #pollapalooza here: https://abcnews.go.com/538/americans-climate-change-love/story?id=107027932

We took a look at the latest Senate (and presidential) campaign finance reports to see who's doing well, who's struggling and who might not be running at all. Check out the latest 538 politics chat here! https://abcnews.go.com/538/senate-candidates-winning-money-race/story?id=106898364

Check out the full story (and data) from me and Cooper Burton here! https://trib.al/wItoTkM 6/6

On the chamber’s 30-odd non-nomination votes, some endangered (or retiring, in Manchin’s case) Democrats used Congressional Review Act votes to burnish their moderate credentials and go on record against the president’s policies in largely symbolic votes. 5/

How did Congress vote in relation to Biden’s positions in 2023? Some highlights from our latest analysis: House Republicans spent much of their floor time passing measures with little chance of becoming law. That meant they voted pretty cohesively as a party. 1/

DeSantis's prospects were promising at the start of 2023, but his campaign was plagued by issues from its launch in late May... perhaps none as insurmountable as voters' continued loyalty to Donald Trump. @geoffreyvs's latest: https://trib.al/qGEj0Ka

The Iowa caucuses begin at 7pm Central! Join us to get caught up on the state of the race, and stick around for live results and analysis.

Yes, there are three more GOP primary debates this month. DeSantis and Haley will face off in Iowa tomorrow, while Christie will join in NH. Plus, @geoffreyvs takes a look at just how parties and media outlets have been deciding who makes the stage. https://trib.al/tlMkyJ8

Could Trump actually get kicked off the ballot? @geoffreyvs, @MonicaBPotts and I chatted about what to expect from 14th Amendment challenges to disqualify Trump based on the Jan. 6 insurrection, and how they could affect the presidential race. https://t.co/55MndlnznM

Hispanic voters are a growing part of the electorate -- but what issues could motivate them to turn out in 2024? @MonicaBPotts and @holly_fuong took a look at their views on immigration, the environment and more. https://abcnews.go.com/538/issues-matter-hispanic-voters-2024/story?id=105849312