Super instructive analysis on the procedural and political angles of the European Parliament's vote on "chat control". We all need to pay more attention to Brussels politics and @nvondarza.bsky.social makes this very easy to follow.

Der (europäische) Föderalist@foederalist.eu · 2d ago

A vote is passed if more MEPs vote yes than no, right? Well, not always – as could be seen in July's EP vote on chat control. Here's the monthly #EUanalytics review by NICOLAI VON ONDARZA:

By now, it seems that #Spain has been very able to manage the crisis, and no other member states were negatively affected in any way. The reactions from Italy & Co. have been truly shameful. This is how you destroy trust and solidarity in the EU.

Lorenzo Piccoli@lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social · 5d ago

If the concern is Spain’s capacity to manage an exceptional number of arrivals, there are other ways to respond, including supporting Spain, without restricting free movement across an internal Schengen border.

Now entering European summer mode and will be back here in three weeks. Enjoy your summer everyone!

Well, the government has a seven page memo on devolution and England and... there is a lot in there! Will add some thoughts, but the most striking thing is the pace. A lot of the serious reforms are due to come in April 2028 - this is not a gradual roadmap! www.gov.uk/government/p...

Rewiring the State – Cabinet Statement

This publication sets out this government's plan to fundamentally rewire the state by shifting power, funding and accountability from Whitehall to local leaders

gov.uk

Days like today really show the differences between bluesky and X. Checking on X, everyone, even the moderate voices I still follow there are talking about Ceuta and a new 'migration crisis'. Here, very little discussion even amongst those posting on EU politics.

Well, this is quite something: All 55 UEFA member associations threaten to boycott the next FIFA World Cup if Infantinos plans go through. This seem like the biggest European revolt against something Trump connected so far:

Fifa World Cup: Uefa to boycott tournament if Gianni Infantino's investment plans go through

Uefa will boycott Fifa's tournaments if investment proposals from world football's governing body president Gianni Infantino go through.

bbc.com

++BREAKING++ The UK and Spanish governments have issued a joint statement overnight: "[We] agreed that this summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life." www.gov.uk/government/n...

The real problem is, though, that much of LinkedIn sounded like AI slop well before the current gen ai was invented.

Tits McGee@scientits.bsky.social · 6d ago

Oh my God, this is not a drill - LinkedIn has added 'seems like AI slop' as an option on posts Genuinely thought it was a joke until I clicked on a few posts

Andy Burnham definitely has managed a much better start than Keir Starmer. It has been a long while since the UK public actually had a favourable view of their PM. Also note the downfall of Farage, who seems to be really hurt by his scandals:

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · 6d ago

Latest leader approvals 🌹Burnham bumps up to +19, 8 higher than Keir’s high of 11. 🌳Badenoch down slightly to break even 🔶Davey drops back to -11 💚Polanski is at -24 ➡️Farage drops to another low, by far his lowest since the election at -32

As Andy Burnham today makes his first major defence announcement, on the nuclear deterrent, really noteworthy that for him defence always has a domestic element: After 'keeping the country safe', the main benefit he stresses are the jobs + apprenticeships being created to 'reindustrialise Britain'

Can’t believe Glen Hansard is gone. What an unbelievable tragedy. I loved his and Lisa O’Neill’s rendition of Fairytale of New York at Shane MacGowan’s funeral: m.youtube.com/watch?v=ptay...

Glen Hansard and Lisa O'Neill Perform "Fairytale of New York" at Shane MacGowan's Funeral

YouTube video by Consequence

m.youtube.com

'Throughout his career, Glen made a particularly noteworthy effort to keep alive the work of all those who had gone before him, keeping alive the songs of previous generations of Irish musicians and singers who had influenced him, as well as the songs of departed friends'

Taoiseach, Ryan Tubridy and Michael D Higgins among those remembering ‘one of the greats’ Glen Hansard

The Dubliner had recently finished off a tour across the UK and Ireland

independent.ie

Oh no, how horrible! 'Once' and its music is very special for me, and this is quite a shock. Rest in Peace, Glen!

Lisa O’Carroll@lisaocarroll.bsky.social · last wk.

www.theguardian.com/music/2026/j...

It's also a sign of how crowded the far-right field is in Poland. Next to France and Czechia, it is the only member state that already has parties in all three far-right groups, so Morawiecki doesn't have an obvious place where to go.

Very good update on how the PiS split is impacting the EU level - Morawiecki has now officially withdrawn as ECR President, but the FdI will only take over until a succession from within the PiS is elected as ECR President.

Eddy Wax@eddywax.bsky.social · last wk.

www.euractiv.com/news/polish-... How the Law & Justice break-up is impacting Brussels | Paging @nvondarza.bsky.social

www.euractiv.com/news/polish-... How the Law & Justice break-up is impacting Brussels | Paging @nvondarza.bsky.social

Polish politics spills over into Brussels | Euractiv

PiS infighting is having consequences at EU level

euractiv.com

One continuous feature of EU-UK relations since Brexit is that the combination of Brussels' August and UK party conference season in September/October have pushed back important meetings. As a UK outsider, in practice though the party conferences never justified to me long postponements.

David Phinnemore@dphinnemore.bsky.social · last wk.

"Officials on both sides have, however, said they expect the [EU-UK Summit] to be held in October or November to dodge the summer break, the U.N. General Assembly, and the Labour Party conference." www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...

Very telling research on the rise of self-published books with substantial AI text - which on their own earn less than 'regular' books, but together seem to earn their 'authors' substantial and are thus crowding out the market for others:

Tuhin Chakrabarty@tuhinchakr.bsky.social · last wk.

🚨 New paper on AI & Copyright Using @pangram.com full-text AI detection, we study self-published genre fiction on Amazon, 2023–26. Amazon is flooded w/ books with substantial AI text. They earn real 💰 & crowd out non-AI books. w/ @dhillonp.bsky.social @xinyuel.bsky.social & Jane Ginsburg (1/n) 🧵

Oh no. Have to admit, the AI speak of 'it's not X, it's Y" is one that is triggering me strongly, and I have now seen it also creep into German political communication. One of the biggest 'this is AI' red flag at the moment.

John Feminella@jxf.me · last wk.

Hypothesis: The "it's not X, it's Y" pattern that LLMs are so fond of outputting can be traced back to a single, very prevalent phrase in the training data:

I tried to map these with the female participation in the workforce. The trend is not very clear. Italy is forcing a trend because of its absurd numbers. Because, of course, we are... 🫠 (the employment data comes from Eurostat's APIs)

Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · last wk.

Fun graph by the EU Commission on the length of summer holidays in the EU. To be frank, as a parent, even the six weeks in Germany feel long. How are parents supposed to bridge 14 weeks of summer holiday?

This is a fantastic PhD topic for comparative politics or social policy. It’s got everything- path dependency, public administration, gender, demographics, competition, norms, ideas, interest groups…

Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · last wk.

Fun graph by the EU Commission on the length of summer holidays in the EU. To be frank, as a parent, even the six weeks in Germany feel long. How are parents supposed to bridge 14 weeks of summer holiday?

Fun graph by the EU Commission on the length of summer holidays in the EU. To be frank, as a parent, even the six weeks in Germany feel long. How are parents supposed to bridge 14 weeks of summer holiday?

Two observations: First, good to see UK participation in the EU's €90bn loan to Ukraine finalised - unlike SAFE, this went smoothly, and enables both UK financial contribution and Ukraine purchases of UK military equipment counting as 'European':

The 'Burnham bounce' seems to be real, at least in short-term. This is the first poll lead for Labour at least for a year, and as far as I remember also the first time in more than a year Reform UK is not leading a UK poll.

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · last wk.

Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24 🌹 LAB 28% (+4)
⏩ REF 24% (-2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7

Good grief, this hits home.

I did the same some days ago, tried to find some good analysis of the referendum in Iceland. It is very telling that journalist, analyst and governments seem to underestimate the strategic importance of this vote.

Update on this by @eddywax.bsky.social: Looks like senior FdI MEP Fidanza will become interim president of the ECR, while three PiS MEPs have left the party with Morawiecki. It remains open whether they will also be pushed out of the ECR.

Nicolai von Ondarza@nvondarza.bsky.social · 2w ago

This will also have repercussions on the European level - Morawiecki, who has just been expelled, is the head of the European Conservative and Reformer (ECR) party, the party that brings together PiS, Meloni's FdI and other national conversatives across the EU.

Today early voting starts in the referendum in Iceland on whether to resume EU accession talks, with full voting done on 29 August. I know very little about Iceland's politics, but all polls I have seen point to a very close result. (But hey, the 52-48 ratio has history in referenda on the EU):

For me the Fable-class models crossed a threshold from “That’s clever, and is the sort of technical detail I might have expected a human reviewer to catch” to “Huh, not sure I would have thought of taking this that direction, and it’s a real improvement.” Ngl, it’s been disconcerting.