Giorgio Cafiero

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

CEO of DC-based Gulf State Analytics • Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University • Adjunct Fellow at American Security Project • SME Gulf States • Public Trust Contractor

I commented to @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social that notwithstanding Trump's description of the JCPOA as the ‘worst deal ever,’ it looks better and better every day because it succeeded in containing Iran’s nuclear program and subjected it to a rigorous inspection regime. www.newarab.com/analysis/no-...

No war, no peace: The dangerous US–Iran deadlock

Analysis: A fragile ceasefire has frozen the conflict without resolving it, leaving the US and Iran trapped in a dangerous limbo vulnerable to miscalculation

newarab.com

I told @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social that Trump’s approach to Iran validates New York Yankees all-star Yogi Berra’s truism that "‘if you don't know where you are going, you'll end up someplace else." Trump is now trying to extinguish the fire he set. www.newarab.com/analysis/why...

Why diverging US-Israel goals complicate how the Iran war ends

While the US seeks to contain Iran and protect energy markets, Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth policy to collapse the regime, complicating how the war ends

newarab.com

“When the US brands such actors ‘terrorists,’ it reinforces the longstanding narrative that Washington is hostile not just to Islam but also Muslim civil society & will side with any autocrat who promises ‘stability’ ..........,” writes @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social www.newarab.com/analysis/why...

Why is Trump cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood?

Trump’s executive order is less about specific Muslim Brotherhood chapters and more about how foreign lobbying and culture wars shape US policy

newarab.com

Across the Arab world, Israel’s provocations are widely seen as a liability. For Gulf capitals and their allies, long-term stability and regional security outweigh any fleeting gestures or transactional promises from Tel Aviv. By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...

Israel and the Gulf: From potential partner to a growing threat

Gulf states are increasingly viewing Israel not as a potential partner, but as a growing threat to regional stability and security

newarab.com

While Iran’s efforts to position itself as a credible alternative to Western security guarantees have met with little practical success, this narrative remains a central theme in its diplomatic outreach to neighboring Arab states. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

Iran’s Messaging After Israel’s Qatar Strike - Arab Gulf States Institute

Iran has moved quickly to try to capitalize on cracks in U.S.-Gulf relations after Israel’s unprecedented attack on Hamas officials in Qatar.

agsi.org

“Rather than signalling political endorsement/readiness to leverage influence in 🇺🇸 on Syria’s behalf, 🇦🇪’s engagement stems from more pragmatic concerns, i.e a desire to avoid being excluded in a rapidly evolving regional order shaped by the involvement of 🇹🇷 and 🇸🇦” I told @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why.

New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?

responsiblestatecraft.org

"The UAE is being pragmatic about Syria’s new reality. Abu Dhabi assesses that by minimizing friction with Syria’s new government, it can steer Damascus away from conduct that could threaten Emirati interests." By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social. responsiblestatecraft.org/al-sharaaa-u...

UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why.

New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?

responsiblestatecraft.org