✨ We kicked off a new season of talks, the AI FUN with ELLIS Invited Speaker Lecture series, brought to you by the Centre for AI FUNdamentals and the #ELLIS Unit at Manchester 🐝 The 1️⃣st talk was given by our guest speaker Rafael Izbicki (@rafael-izbicki.bsky.social) from UFSCar in Brazil 🇧🇷

🦟 Our new paper is out in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases! We use Google Trends + surveillance data to improve nowcasting of dengue in Brazil. W/ the great Y. Xiao, G. Soares, L. Bastos & P. Moraga. 🔗 journals.plos.org/plosntds/art... Online Tracker: diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...

Dengue nowcasting in Brazil by combining official surveillance data and Google Trends information

Author summary Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that poses significant public health challenges in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Surveillance systems are crucial for dengue prev...

journals.plos.org

Interested in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes and conditional density estimators? You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon! amazon.com/Machine-Lear... #MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI #DataScience #ConformalPrediction

📢 New on Medium: My Paper Was Outdated Before It Was Published Submitted. Waited. Rejected. Revised. Accepted. By then, 50+ citations and 1k GitHub stars. The field had moved on. Thoughts on fixing peer review in fast-moving fields: 🔗 rizbicki.medium.com/my-paper-was... #PeerReview

What if you could beat the Likelihood Ratio Test? A fun and potentially transformational phy-statistics paper with Ann Lee, James Carzon, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social, luca Masserano and @danielwhiteson.bsky.social arxiv.org/abs/2507.17831

On Focusing Statistical Power for Searches and Measurements in Particle Physics

Particle physics experiments rely on the (generalised) likelihood ratio test (LRT) for searches and measurements, which consist of composite hypothesis tests. However, this test is not guaranteed to b...

arxiv.org

Big news—our paper was accepted for oral presentation at #UAI2025! 🥳 We (me + Vagner S. Santos, Thiago R Ramos, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social ) built EPICSCORE, a method to improve conformal prediction intervals by adding epistemic uncertainty awareness. Here’s why it matters 🧵

Interesed in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes, and conditional density estimators? You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon! 📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear... #MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI

Interesed in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes, and conditional density estimators? You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon! 📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear... #MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI

Aparentemente esse ano será um caos em São Paulo em relação à dengue novamente. Mais estimativas em diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track... #dengue #epi #epidemiology

🕮 New Book Release! 😀 Happy to share my new book, Machine Learning Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty Quantification. Tools to tackle aleatoric & epistemic uncertainties in AI. +

É absurdo como muitos dos divulgadores científicos simplesmente pararam de cobrar vacinas quando o novo governo assumiu. Estamos faz meses tentando dar uma dose de vacina de covid para minha filha, mas está sempre em falta. Idem para idosos.

🌳 New paper! Led by Denis Valle, we present a nonparametric approach to quantify uncertainty in multistep upscaling models. We illustrate our methods for forest biomass predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. + #RemoteSensing #MachineLearning #ForestBiomass

I am happy to announce that a paper of mine, Rafael B. Stern and @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social has been accepted for publication at the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 🎉 In our paper, we show how to build and test hypotheses of practical equivalence in nonparametric settings. 🧵

Excited to announce our new publication! Our paper, "Likelihood-free frequentist inference: bridging classical statistics and machine learning for reliable simulator-based inference," is now in EJS! Co-authored with the great N Dalmasso, @lucamasse95 , D Zhao, and A B Lee. +

No dia 25/11, eu, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos e Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas daremos uma série de seminários no Programa de Pós-Graduação do Dept. de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia da FMRP USP. Mais informações: lnkd.in/dps4mHDU

Stop oversampling! Changing the cutoff in probabilistic classifiers is enough for imbalanced data. In our new paper, Gabriel O. Assunção, Marcos O. Prates, and I explore this in depth. jds-online.org/journal/JDS/... #DataScience #MachineLearning #ImbalancedData #AI #Oversampling

📢 Tarde Temática: Inferência, Redes e IA no dia 25/10 no CINA-UFSCar! Palestras com @franciscorodrigues.bsky.social (ICMC-USP), Pedro L. C. Rodrigues (Inria) e Heloísa Camargo (DC-UFSCar). Saiba mais: rafaelizbicki.com/tematico_ia/ #InteligenciaArtificial #Redes #Simulação #DataScience

Tá insuportável isso aqui. O mais triste é que passaram a semana dizendo que hoje ia esfriar um monte.

Ran my text through ChatGPT arguing why oversampling usually doesn’t make sense, and it flipped my argument to support oversampling instead. A reminder that AI often defaults to consensus—even when it's wrong. Always double-check! #AI #MachineLearning #Statistics

Does not exist

Estão abertas as inscrições para o Concurso Público para Professor Efetivo no Depto de Estatística da UFSCar! Inscrições até 11/10/2024 São Carlos é um polo de inovação e pesquisa, com excelente qualidade de vida. + info: concursos.ufscar.br #concurso #estatistica #datascience #machinelearning

O PIPGEs (UFSCar/USP) está com inscrições abertas para mestrado (até 21/10) e doutorado (até 14/10). Bolsas disponíveis e oportunidades de tutoria e monitoria. Linhas de pesquisa: Machine Learning, Inferência, Probabilidade e Modelos de Regressão. + info: tinyurl.com/pipges2024 #posgrad

Does anyone know of open data sources for air quality across different regions of Brazil? Weather forecasting websites show current conditions, but is this data being stored anywhere for future use? #Weather #AirQuality #OpenData #Environment #Statistics #Brazil

Statisticians at BlueSky

Rodrigo Lassance@rflassance.bsky.social · 2y ago

I'll list some people I follow and that posted stuff recently: @jordannafa.bsky.social @skewed.de @stephenjwild.bsky.social @avehtari.bsky.social @alexpghayes.bsky.social @datavisfriendly.bsky.social @chelseaparlett.bsky.social @statsepi.bsky.social @karlrohe.bsky.social @solomonkurz.bsky.social

Any stats or machine learning researchers in Blue Sky?

Hoje concluímos o módulo de Aprendizado Supervisionado no MBA em Machine Learning in Production do ITI UFSCar, que tive o prazer de ministrar junto com os incríveis Afonso Vaz e Mateus Borges. Foi uma experiência enriquecedora, cheia de boas discussões e práticas. #MachineLearning #AI #DataScience

📚 Conheça nosso livro "Aprendizado de Máquina: Uma Abordagem Estatística"! Ideal para quem já tem noções de estatística e quer se aprofundar em machine learning. 💻 Baixe gratuitamente ou adquira a versão impressa! 🔗 rafaelizbicki.com/ame #MachineLearning #Estatística #DataScience #CiênciaDeDados

Testando threads e bluesky. Achei o bluesky muito melhor, mas está parecendo que o threads está tendo mais adesão dos brasileiros.

Honrado em ter participado do 25º SINAPE em Fortaleza no início desse mês! Foi um privilégio compartilhar minha pesquisa e aprender com colegas de todo o país. Os slides de minha apresentação estão em rafaelizbicki.com/slides/gls_s... #Estatística #Ciência #MachineLearning #DataScience