UK national productivity trends: getting the data right - August 2026 update

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-based productivity measures have been flat since 2024 Q3, a continuation of disappointing longer-term trends since the Global Financial Crisis. By contrast, RTI-based productivity estimates point to a meaningful productivity pickup. Between 2024 Q3 and 2026 Q2, our baseline administrative estimates indicate that productivity increased by 2.8 per cent, compared with just 0.3 per cent under the LFS-based measure. A divergence in labour input explains these differences. While some of the divergence could in principle reflect definitional and coverage differences between survey and administrative data, we believe that it is due to sampling challenges affecting the LFS, particularly during and since the pandemic. Given that administrative data currently provide the most reliable measure of employee growth, productivity estimates using such data provide a more accurate picture of recent developments.

poid.lse.ac.uk

Cancel the commute: We need new ways to measure productivity at work

Leaders who care about productivity should stop asking where people sit and start asking which arrangement helps each kind of work create the most value.

thehill.com

Tech firms are bringing job interviews back in person to stop AI use, RTO guru says

Stanford economist Nick Bloom says employers are adding face-to-face rounds as AI makes it harder to assess job candidates.

businessinsider.com

Silicon, Not Software, Will Decide the AI Race

Antonin Bergeaud & Robin Rivaton explain why technological leadership depends as much on factories and power grids as on algorithms.

project-syndicate.org

Silicon, Not Software, Will Decide the AI Race

Antonin Bergeaud & Robin Rivaton explain why technological leadership depends as much on factories and power grids as on algorithms.

project-syndicate.org

Will AI solve the productivity puzzle? With Nick Bloom

AI hasn’t resulted in widespread productivity gains. Business leaders say that’s changing

ft.com

The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from Default Risk Using Firm-Level Data

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

nber.org

VAT is Andy Burnham’s best tool if UK public finances go off track, says OECD

New report argues long-term reforms should focus on spending restraint, including end to pensions triple lock

ft.com

S3 E8: Space Race, Cold War, and Public R&D Policies with Alex Whalley from the University of Calgary

The Innovation and Diffusion Podcast · Episode

open.spotify.com

Malaysia Edge: AI won’t bring back era of rapid growth, says Nobel Prize winner

poid.lse.ac.uk

Insurance Business: Brexit Bregret? Insurance professionals have their say

poid.lse.ac.uk

UK national productivity trends: getting the data right

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) adminis...

poid.lse.ac.uk

When trust in official statistics declines

Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. This column shows that the events produced a sharp increase in economic policy uncertainty, with existing estimates linking uncertainty to macroeconomic outcomes implying that the resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. While some economic activity postponed during periods of uncertainty may eventually occur later, there are reasons to believe that at least part of the effect could be lasting.

cepr.org

Europe is falling behind, can it pick up the pace when it comes to innovation?

Philippe Aghion writes for Polytechnique Insights on how Europe must prepare its own AI strategy if it wishes to make up ground lost to the U.S. in terms of GDP per capita, productivity and disruptive innovations.

poid.lse.ac.uk

Financial Times: Letter - Why Burnham should keep Reeves as chancellor

poid.lse.ac.uk

Nobel de Economía defiende que la IA destruirá empleos pero dará crecimiento

Frente a algunos de sus colegas que anticipan que la IA tendrá un impacto negativo sobre el empleo sin traducirse en un mayor crecimiento económico, Aghion sostuvo que, con las políticas públicas adec...

forbes.com.mx

Want Workers to Reskill? Show Them Who They Can Become | Working Knowledge

New career in IT or construction? It's not easy to get workers to reskill, says Raffaella Sadun, because jobs for many people are more than a paycheck.

library.hbs.edu

Making Defence Spending Pay

Defence spending is rising whether voters like it or not. The UK has committed to 2.5% of national income and aims for nearer 3.5% over the next decade, £30bn a year for each percentage point. What do...

cepr.org

Environment Week 2026 — LSE Environment Week

ow.ly