Erica Groshen
@ericagroshen.bsky.social
Economist, Sr. Econ Advisor at Cornell -ILR. 14th Commissioner of BLS. Formerly at NY & Cleveland Federal Reserve Banks. Now in Seattle!
A simple primer for understanding the various jobs releases that come out each month: The jobs report that BLS releases each month is the best and clearest signal we have of labor market health. The ADP and Revelio data that come out before the release are mostly shaping expectations about …
An important white paper has just been released which explores the deleterious effect the firing of the BLS Commissioner on Aug 1, 2025 had on the U.S. economy. Reliable statistics matter! @ericagroshen.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35135
The Value of Reliable Statistics
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
nber.org
A new working paper from four researchers, including @ericagroshen.bsky.social, calculates that the "firing of then-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer...caused a spike in uncertainty associated with a $20 billion loss in industrial production."
Businesses, investors ‘flying blind’ when trust in government statistics declines | Cornell Chronicle
Even a temporary loss of trust in official data may be costly, with an economic impact many times the budgets of the agencies that report key indicators.
news.cornell.edu
Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS budget — @nickbloom.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social Duncan Hobbs @michaelrstrain.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35135
The Value of Reliable Statistics
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
nber.org
🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky
Former BLS commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social tells me she views this budget "with alarm." If the cuts go through, she said, “What you lose there is first of all resilience and modernization" -- both of which are badly needed right now.
Here's background about Friends of BLS www.friendsofbls.org
The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
friendsofbls.org
On the nomination of Brett Matsumoto as BLS commissioner, #CornellILR senior economics advisor @ericagroshen.bsky.social says: "I was happy to see that we’re getting someone who has a strong professional record and knows BLS from the inside."
Trump’s BLS Pick to Contend With Leadership Vacuum, Staff Losses
President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics will go up against critical leadership gaps and staffing shortages that threaten the agency’s role in informing economic policy.
news.bloomberglaw.com
#CornellILR's @ericagroshen.bsky.social says New York's effort to track AI-related layoffs is a start, but argues employers should be required to share more detailed data on changing skills and occupations so workers can navigate transitions, rather than simply labeling job losses as caused by AI.
No Company Has Admitted to Replacing Workers With AI in New York
New York state has required companies to disclose if “technological innovation or automation” was the cause of job loss for nearly a year. So far, none has.
wired.com
Bad news today. The administration finalized a plan to remove civil service protections from about 50,000 federal workers, with no exemption for statistical or scientific agency personnel. This erodes protection of those agencies from political influence. www.govexec.com/workforce/20... #econsky
Trump admin moves to finalize return of Schedule F
Officials estimate that around 50,000 federal workers will be stripped of their civil service protections beginning in around a month, as unions, employee associations and good government groups decry...
govexec.com
When the #jobsreport is released on Wed. significant shifts in the jobs benchmarks are anticipated. The Friends of BLS has issued a statement outlining what to expect and the reasons why. Don't fall for uninformed overreactions! www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2026... #econsky
Annual Revisions for BLS Jobs Numbers Expected To Be Downward: The Causes Explained — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Friends of BLS have authored an explanation for the causes for the annual revisions of the BLS Jobs Numbers. You can access the document here .
friendsofbls.org
Erica Groshen (@ericagroshen.bsky.social), senior labor market advisor at #CornellILR, said she supports the selection of Brett Matsumoto as the new commissioner, explaining: “He’s a B.L.S.-er, he’s a data nerd.” Read more via @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/b...
Trump Names ‘Data Nerd’ to Lead Labor Statistics Agency
nytimes.com
JOB OPENING Seattle's Office of Labor Standards is hiring a Data Strategist to lead data and policv work related to “gig economy” and serve on their policy team. Learn more and apply here. www.governmentjobs.com/careers/seat... Position closes on 1/27. #econsky
Data Strategist
The City of Seattle is a leader on wage, labor, and workforce practices that enhance equity, address wage gaps, and create a fair and healthy economy for workers, businesses, and residents. The Office...
governmentjobs.com
Please join me and my colleagues for this fun session!
Ioana Marinescu@imarinescu.bsky.social · 7mo agoWelcome to #ASSA2026 in my home town! Please say hi if you see me in the corridors 😊! I look forward to seeing some of you tonight at the LERA research panel & reception w. Jared Bernstein @ericagroshen.bsky.social @darrickhamilton.bsky.social #EconSky
New statement from Friends of BLS: "Some controversy...erupted on Dec. 30 following release of a highly informative Q&A that addressed how [BLS] estimated the Nov. 2025 CPI. We..find no reason to see the hand of politics anywhere in the Bureau’s CPI work..." www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
Co-Chairs of the Friends of BLS Statement on the CPI Estimates for November 2025 — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Many of the Friends of BLS follow the Bureau’s publications and press statements very closely. So do many who have not yet found the Friends but nevertheless value what BLS does, particularly in the a...
friendsofbls.org
Livestreamed sessions from this weekend's American Economic Association annual gathering will be posted at www.aeaweb.org/conference/l...
ASSA 2026 Live-Streamed Sessions
aeaweb.org
Livestreamed from the ASSA meetings. Jan 5, 8 AM- 10 AM EST: The State of Government Statistics: - Karen Dynan - Bill Beach - Loretta Mester - Seth Carpenter - Jed Kolko moderated by me www.aeaweb.org/conference/2...
12/30/25: New info from #BLS on impact of #shutdown on #CPI data, including: How were Nov. indexes calculated? Why BLS chose carry-forward imputation? How missing Oct data will impact April 2026 rent & OER indexes? Statistical weighting changes made in 11/25? www.bls.gov/cpi/addition... #econsky
Thank you all experts for explaining "why BLS can't just ask people whether they were unemployed in Oct for the household survey" to me And this one from Erika is a clear and definite one if you like a TLDR
Erika McEntarfer@erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 9mo agoSeveral constraints, all binding: 1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire 2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field 3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one 4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
Hey, #EconSky! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social! bsky.app/profile/usbl...
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy. It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
#CornellILR's @ericagroshen.bsky.social says that the unusual length of the government closure means that some data was not collected on schedule, creating potential gaps in the upcoming reports. Each economic series will be affected differently depending on how, when + from whom data was gathered.
Economic data is back following government reopening - here are the key events this week
US economic data 2025: The U.S. government has reopened after its longest shutdown, paving the way for the release of critical economic data such as the September jobs report, CPI, PPI, and PCE. Key c...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
Please join The Friends of BLS in welcoming BLSers back to their important work with gratitude for their skills and dedication. Link to the message: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025... #econsky
To the BLS Staff from the Leadership of the Friends of BLS — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Welcome back. On behalf of the Friends of BLS, we extend our deepest appreciation to each of you for your work this year. As you return from the recent government shutdown, we want to express this gra...
friendsofbls.org
Each economic data series will be affected differently by the shutdown, depending on how, when and from whom the data is collected, said @ericagroshen.bsky.social, senior economics advisor at #CornellILR. Still, expect the BLS and other agencies to prioritize Principal Federal Economic Indicators.
The government is back open. Here’s what that means for economic data | CNN Business
The US government has reopened following its longest-ever shutdown, setting the stage for the eventual release of the gold-standard federal data that is crucial in analyzing the health and trajectory ...
cnn.com
#CornellILR's @ericagroshen.bsky.social, senior economic advisor and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), advises against substituting private-sector data for official federal economic reports, underscoring the challenges facing policymakers and investors.
Butchered jobs and inflation data may add fuel to the fire of uncertainty already blazing in the markets | Fortune
A worldwide selloff accelerates as patchy U.S. data clouds the Fed’s next move, sending Wall Street tumbling and volatility surging into the end of the week.
fortune.com
Breaking news: The SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT comes out on THURSDAY., Nov. 20. BLS will announce revised news release dates on this page as they become available. #econsky @aaronsojourner.org www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
bls.gov
The Friends of BLS FY26 Endorsement Letter awaits your organizational & individual signatures! We ask Congress for no less than the amount recommended by House appropriators: $714 million for FY26. Show your support today! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... #econsky (Form for individuals in comments)
Friends of BLS FY26 Endorsement Letter Organizational Sign-on Form
November xx, 2025 The Honorable Susan Collins, Chair Senate Appropriations Committee Washington, DC 20510 The Honorable Tom Cole, Chair House Appropriations Committee Washington, DC 20515 The Honora...
docs.google.com
