Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
Co-founder of Igarapé Institute, SecDev, and Bioverse | Geopolitics, security, technology, cities and nature enthusiast | TED speaker | Lancet Commission | Bosch Academy | Author of Terra Incognita | SuperNature | robertmuggah.org
A string of cyberattacks are disrupting food retail refrigeration across #Belgium, #Estonia, #Finland, #Ireland #Luxembourg, the #Netherlands and #Sweden, following similar attacks in #France in October. My latest at globalchallenges.ch/issue/20/whe...
#Brazil’s anti-authoritarian playbook is taking shape. Mobilize beyond parties. Reclaim the street. Weaponize humor. Make algorithms work for you. Take platform bias to court. Own the flag. Then make democracy deliver. @projectsyndicate.bsky.social www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/b...
Brazil’s Chapter in the Anti-Authoritarian Playbook
Robert Muggah & Ilona Szabó de Carvalho place the president's improbable election victory in the context of recent outcomes in Hungary and Serbia.
project-syndicate.org
European #protests are the product of a decade in which housing grew less affordable, the promise of work less secure and expectation of upward #mobility weakened. Many young #Europeans believe they are paying for decisions in which they had almost no say. flashnote.secdev.com/p/classroom-...
Drug trafficking in the #Amazon is is expanding as gangs establish transit networks and infiltrate local communities. I spoke to the @nytimes.com about the wider larger ecosystem of illegal #miners, #loggers, #smugglers, transporters and corrupt middlemen. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
To address concerns about his age and give centrist voters permission to support the left, @lulaoficialbluesky.bsky.social should commit to serving only one more term and naming a successor, while also taking a stronger line on public safety, @muggah.bsky.social advises. bit.ly/4hKtkHw
Brazil’s Voters Have Moved
Robert Muggah explains how demographics and the ruling party’s failures could bring the right back to power.
bit.ly
Violent crime has also dominated the list of voter concerns in election polls, prompting candidates to pledge tougher security measures. As I told @reuters.com, there’s plenty of political mileage in promising tougher punishment. @igarapeorg.bsky.social www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Brazil vote approaches with Lula and Bolsonaro polling in close race
Brazil's presidential campaign draws to a close on Thursday, ahead of voting on Sunday in a race that will determine whether Latin America's largest nation follows the conservative shift that has swep...
reuters.com
[Commentary] Environmental crimes like illegal logging & mining down climate action by exploiting nature for profit. @muggah.bsky.social & Ilona Szabó de Carvalho argue that halting these crimes requires tracking profits across the full supply chain, from extraction site to corporate offices.
To tackle environmental crime, track profits through the whole supply chain (commentary)
The world has spent a decade trying to put a price on nature. Forests have become carbon sinks, while wetlands are increasingly described as natural infrastructure. Biodiversity is also being drawn…
mongabay.cc
Environmental #crime is among the world’s most lucrative illicit markets, but it’s also under-studied. Estimates suggest it generates upwards $280 billion a year in profits with social costs of between $1-2 trillion a year. Our latest with @mongabay.com news.mongabay.com/2026/09/to-t...
To tackle environmental crime, track profits through the whole supply chain (commentary)
The world has spent a decade trying to put a price on nature. Forests have become carbon sinks, while wetlands are increasingly described as natural infrastructure. Biodiversity is also being drawn in...
news.mongabay.com
la plus grande partie de l’Histoire, la guerre est restée circonscrite par la géographie. La cyberguerre a fait voler ce frontière en éclat. L'avènement de l'IA a fait croître les cyber-risques de manière exponentielle. Mon article avex @letemps.ch www.letemps.ch/opinions/deb...
Quand la guerre n’a plus de ligne de front - Le Temps
OPINION. La cyberguerre transforme à la fois le lieu du conflit et ses participants, écrit Robert Muggah, cofondateur de l’institut Igarapé, laboratoire de réflexion brésilien; le nouveau champ de bat...
letemps.ch
Seductive as it may be, Bukeleism is unlikely to work in Brazil. The #PCC and the #CV are far more sophisticated than El Savador’s extortionists and their (transnational) businesses much harder to track and disrupt. Spoke to @economist.com. www.economist.com/the-americas...
Brazil’s gangsters: less murder, more money
Crime is softer, but it affects more Brazilians than ever before
economist.com
As conditions have worsened, #Haiti’s brigades and gangs have joined an arms race. Spoke at length to the #washingtonpost about what’s at stake. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
They formed to fight Haiti’s gangs. Now they’re an obstacle to peace.
As a U.S.-backed, U.N.-authorized force attempts to restore security, “self-defense brigades” pose a unique challenge.
washingtonpost.com
There’s a rising perception that U.S. security policy toward Brazil has become entangled in politics. I told the #nytimes it falls short of a rupture but is generating heightened mistrust. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/12/w...
Visa Issue Threatens U.S.-Brazil Cooperation on Crime
Officials say the Trump administration is blocking some of Brazil’s efforts to expand cooperation on fighting transnational crime.
nytimes.com
The Iran war has narrowed the political space for climate negotiations. But geopolitical volatility need not derail the energy transition, argue Igarapé Institutes' @muggah.bsky.social, @uspoficial.bsky.social’s Carlos Nobre, and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social’s Johan Rockström. bit.ly/4r75VEJ
The Canada–US relationship has entered its most serious confrontation in generations. The likeliest outcome through the end of the year remains a harsher economic conflict rather than a security crisis. #secdev flashnote.secdev.com/p/canada-and...
Canada and America: continental drift
Coercion over trade is spreading into questions of sovereignty. Continental defence is the last part of the relationship still holding.
flashnote.secdev.com
How Trump's foreign policy is changing the world order. I told #USAToday that Trump is extracting more from American power today while giving other countries reasons to depend on it less tomorrow. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...
Allies into foes. Foes into allies. What's behind Trump's world order assault?
President Trump's transactional foreign policy is challenging traditional alliances and global power dynamics, for good and ill. Where does it lead?
usatoday.com
The Russia-Ukraine war has entered one of its most dangerous phases since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Several trends are now converging. Our latest analysis at #SecDev considers escalatory dynamics in Ukraine and more widely across Europe. flashnote.secdev.com/p/ukraines-w...
Ukraine's war: deeper, wider, closer
Heavier Russian strikes on Ukraine, deeper Ukrainian attacks inside Russia and mounting sabotage across NATO Europe: an assessment of the next 30 days.
flashnote.secdev.com
There are good reasons to be skeptical about how much impact #Meta’s latest $17b settlement will have on the tech giant. The bigger story is not the money. It’s that governments are beginning to regulate how social media platforms are actually built. theconversation.com/the-product-...
The product is the problem: Why Meta’s $17 billion settlement matters beyond America
The agreement could mark a turning point for public policies on social media precisely because it addresses the architecture of the platforms themselves.
theconversation.com
Washington has long eyed #Brazil’s critical minerals. But as US-Brazil diplomatic relations wobble over trade and political disputes, the Serra Verde offtake arrangement weakens Brasília’s negotiating power. Spoke to #FT about the situation. www.ft.com/content/a404...
The old asbestos town at the heart of the rare earths race
Brazil’s first facility for the minerals is a key component in US plans to break free from Chinese dominance
ft.com
While the Bukele model promises quick wins through heavy policing and mass incarceration, #CostaRica (like Brazil, Colombia, etc) faces a different challenge than #ElSalvador, with transnational criminal organizations now deeply embedded in the country. Spoke to #WSJ. www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Runaway Drug Violence Sets Off a Political Earthquake in Costa Rica
A bastion of democratic stability grapples with the fallout of a surge in narcotics trafficking.
wsj.com
For much of the postwar era, US power rested on predictability. Deals survived elections. Firms invested because rules endured. Allies trusted US guarantees. Even the dollar benefited from faith in American institutions. That foundation is now cracking. flashnote.secdev.com/p/canadas-mi...
Canada’s middle power moment
Canada suspended trade talks with Washington rather than accept terms it judged unfair. Other middle powers are studying the result.
flashnote.secdev.com
“Brazil’s rare earths are significant because they sit at the intersection of resource nationalism, energy transition demand, Western supply-chain diversification and competition with China’s rare earth dominance.” @apnews.com apnews.com/article/braz...
The US and others turn to Brazil for rare earths, raising environmental concerns
Brazil is becoming a key global battleground for rare earth minerals that are crucial for renewable energy and technology.
apnews.com
[Commentary] Record gold prices are driving illicit mining across the Amazon, devastating forests, rivers and Indigenous territories. In a new op-ed, researcher @muggah.bsky.social argues central banks and major buyers must enforce stricter supply chain traceability to stop laundered gold.
The global gold rush consuming the Amazon (commentary)
In November 2025, Brazilian authorities, supported by Interpol, disabled 277 dredges used for illegal gold mining along the Madeira River. The machinery was valued at about $6.8 million. The…
mongabay.cc
The #AGI "race" btn the US and China is the wrong story. Power will go to those who control compute, energy, data centers, talent and distribution — not necessarily those with the biggest baddest model. : www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
The coming disorder over artificial general intelligence
The story of the 'race' to artificial general intelligence benefits hyperscalers and their shareholders by shifting attention away from the social risks.
weforum.org
#ElNiño is an early warning signal for a world already under acute stress. It's a systemic shock that disrupts weather, food, health, infrastructure and power systems at once. As explained in @weforum.org this week, we know the pathways: inaction is indefensible. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
Washington’s designation of Brazil’s #PCC and #CV as terrorist groups may hit far beyond the gangs. It raises sanctions and compliance risks for banks and firms, pressures Lula on crime and sovereignty, and gives Flávio Bolsonaro a temporary political win. www.americasquarterly.org/article/braz...
Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs
The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.
americasquarterly.org
#Desmatamento e #violência são problemas paralelos que compartilham um endereço. Proteger florestas é estratégia de segurança. Com @estadaolink.bsky.social www.estadao.com.br/opiniao/espa...
A nova diplomacia mineral: Brasil e Canadá podem liderar uma cadeia mais justa e sustentável. exame.com/esg/a-nova-d...
A nova diplomacia mineral: Brasil e Canadá podem liderar uma cadeia mais justa e sustentável
A rastreabilidade da cadeia produtiva dos minerais críticos deixou de ser diferencial ético e se tornou pré-requisito de mercado
exame.com
Lula’s meeting Trump today armed with a (nearly) approved #critical-minerals and #rare-earths law. It was approved by the Lower House and now goes to Senate. It offers tax incentives but also calls for a council to ensure more oversight. www1.folha.uol.com.br/internaciona...
www1.folha.uol.com.br
