[Commentary] Record gold prices are driving illicit mining across the Amazon, devastating forests, rivers and Indigenous territories. In a new op-ed, researcher @muggah.bsky.social argues central banks and major buyers must enforce stricter supply chain traceability to stop laundered gold.

The global gold rush consuming the Amazon (commentary)

In November 2025, Brazilian authorities, supported by Interpol, disabled 277 dredges used for illegal gold mining along the Madeira River. The machinery was valued at about $6.8 million. The…

mongabay.cc

The #AGI "race" btn the US and China is the wrong story. Power will go to those who control compute, energy, data centers, talent and distribution — not necessarily those with the biggest baddest model. : www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

The coming disorder over artificial general intelligence

The story of the 'race' to artificial general intelligence benefits hyperscalers and their shareholders by shifting attention away from the social risks.

weforum.org

#ElNiño is an early warning signal for a world already under acute stress. It's a systemic shock that disrupts weather, food, health, infrastructure and power systems at once. As explained in @weforum.org this week, we know the pathways: inaction is indefensible. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

Washington’s designation of Brazil’s #PCC and #CV as terrorist groups may hit far beyond the gangs. It raises sanctions and compliance risks for banks and firms, pressures Lula on crime and sovereignty, and gives Flávio Bolsonaro a temporary political win. www.americasquarterly.org/article/braz...

Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs

The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.

americasquarterly.org

#Desmatamento e #violência são problemas paralelos que compartilham um endereço. Proteger florestas é estratégia de segurança. Com @estadaolink.bsky.social www.estadao.com.br/opiniao/espa...

A nova diplomacia mineral: Brasil e Canadá podem liderar uma cadeia mais justa e sustentável. exame.com/esg/a-nova-d...

A nova diplomacia mineral: Brasil e Canadá podem liderar uma cadeia mais justa e sustentável

A rastreabilidade da cadeia produtiva dos minerais críticos deixou de ser diferencial ético e se tornou pré-requisito de mercado

exame.com

Lula’s meeting Trump today armed with a (nearly) approved #critical-minerals and #rare-earths law. It was approved by the Lower House and now goes to Senate. It offers tax incentives but also calls for a council to ensure more oversight. www1.folha.uol.com.br/internaciona...

The end of an unusually durable unipolar moment isn’t monocausal but the product of at least seven concurrent shocks. What follows isn’t tidy multipolarity but “variable geometry”: shifting coalitions opening space for middle powers to rewire geoeconomics. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

7 reasons the old order broke — and how it might be repaired

The era of a single superpower has ended, replaced by a crowded and competitive landscape of influential nations. Future stability requires a negotiated patchwork of cooperation involving middle power...

weforum.org

Global demand for critical #minerals, used to build drones and electric cars, is surging, setting of a new wave of criminality in the world’s largest rainforest. Spoke to @nytimes.com about some of our latest findings in the #Amazon at @igarapeorg.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/w...

Illegal Miners Loot Amazon Rainforest for Critical Minerals

nytimes.com

A guerra no #Irã tem um alto preço #ambiental, mas pode acelerar a transição para energias #renováveis e soluções positivas para a #natureza. Discutimos os custos e benefícios em um artigo com Johan Rockström, Carlos Nobre e Lourenço Bustani na #ilustrissima. www1.folha.uol.com.br/ilustrissima...

The #Amazon is closer to a tipping point than we think, and #environmentalcrime is pushing it faster. I joined Carlos Nobre, one of the world’s leading Amazon scientists, and Ilona Szabo to unpack the risks and responses in @mongabay.com. @igarapeorg.bsky.social news.mongabay.com/2026/04/the-...

The Amazon's silent crime crisis (commentary)

The Amazon is approaching a dangerous threshold. Long understood as the world’s largest tropical forest and a critical regulator of the global climate, its future is increasingly shaped by the converg...

news.mongabay.com

In the latest discussion paper in our Global (Dis)Order joint programme with @carnegieendowment.org, @muggah.bsky.social analyses the political importance of responding to perceived insecurity in an environment where organised crime is increasingly influencing elections and democracy.

🚨Multiple Russian submarines were detected spying on underwater cables and pipelines in and around UK waters while the world was distracted with Iran. #SecDev has tracked the spread of hybrid tactics across Europe over the last year. @mishaglenny.bsky.social flashnote.secdev.com/p/severed-co...

Severed connections

A string of disruptions to undersea cables in the Baltic and South China and Red Seas has heightened concerns over the security of critical infrastructure.

flashnote.secdev.com

#Pakistan and #China brokered the 11th hour truce. But this is an unstable "pause" and escalation is likely. #Israel is outraged, #Iran may overplay its hand, and the #US gun is cocked. Worst case scenario avoided, but this is far from done. Spoke to @usatoday.com. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...

Why Pakistan and China brokered a fragile Iran ceasefire

Pakistan is entangled in a conflict with Afghanistan. China is the U.S.'s chief global rival. The two nations emerged as unlikely but effective mediators.

usatoday.com

The #US’s possible designation of #Brazil's #PCC and #CV as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) would carry consequences not just for criminal organizations, but for banks, companies, and national politics in an election year. americasquarterly.org/article/braz...

Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs

The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.

americasquarterly.org

The #Iran war is (re)teaching us geography. It’s a reminder that #chokepoints are maritime, subsea, mineral, digital and climatic. The corridor targeted today may be the supply chain failure or energy crisis felt on the other side of the world tomorrow. #WEF. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

O #Brasil é um dos países mais vulneráveis ao clima. Uma revisão sistemática de mais de 20 mil projeções climáticas brasileiras encontrou riscos severos em todos os seis biomas do país. @valoreconomico.bsky.social valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...

A month into the biggest US war since Iraq and there’s no clear strategy, exit, and clear “win”. Despite the 5 day pause, the #Iran war is widening—and starting to run itself. Our new @secdev.bsky.social note finds that escalation is still the most likely path: flashnote.secdev.com/p/escalation...

Escalation risks in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war

A game-theoretic assessment suggests the likeliest outcome is a war that gets worse without anyone quite deciding to make it so

flashnote.secdev.com

#Starlink is reshaping wars, uprisings, and organized crime - with almost no oversight. Adversaries and criminal networks are already exploiting that gap. With @mishaglenny.bsky.social in #foreignpolicy foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/s...

Starlink Has Privatized Geopolitics

From Ukraine to Iran, Elon Musk’s service has become an arbiter of foreign policy.

foreignpolicy.com

Lula! captures not just the applause but the grind, showing how Lula’s political odyssey became inseparable from Brazil’s own. With Brazil heading into a pivotal 2026 election, the story it tells feels less like history than prologue. My latest for @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/9f7b...

Lula! How Brazil made him — and he remade Brazil

Richard Lapper’s richly rewarding biography charts his route from firebrand to pragmatic president

ft.com

Brazil feeds the world, holds 60% of the Amazon and is home to 12% of all fresh water — yet is one of the most climate-exposed nations on Earth. A risk concealed by lobbies who externalize costs onto those with no voice. Latest with @Mongabay: news.mongabay.com/2026/03/braz...

Brazil is both the world's environmental treasure and its most exposed victim (commentary)

In May 2024, floodwaters submerged much of Porto Alegre. Brazil’s fourth-largest city lost bridges, hospitals, and months of economic output. Hundreds died. The images briefly commanded global attenti...

news.mongabay.com

The #Iran war's #economic shockwave is global — but the pain isn't equal. #Asia imports 80%+ of Gulf oil. #India, #Bangladesh, #Africa can't buffer the hit. Higher food, fuel, fertilizer costs land hardest in the Global South who pay a bill for a war it didn't start. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

The global price tag of war in the Middle East

The Iran war’s cascading economic fallout is radiating well beyond the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East, reshaping markets and supply chains potentially for years to come.

weforum.org

#Brazil is the world’s breadbasket. It grows over a third of the world's coffee, almost two third of all soy exports, and is the second corn exporter. It imports 85% of its fertilizer — 40% through Hormuz. The harvest crunch hits in September. www.reuters.com/business/bra...

WHO warns of #nuclear worst-case scenario as Iran conflict escalates: "The consequences will last for decades." Staff are preparing — and hoping it never happens. www.politico.eu/article/were...

‘Worst-case scenario’: Middle East nuclear concerns haunt top health officials

The World Health Organization is being “vigilant” for any kind of atomic threat, the regional director for the eastern Mediterranean tells POLITICO.

politico.eu

O Brasil atualizou sua doutrina de defesa, mas continua pensando no inimigo errado. Embora a #guerra convencional seja um risco real, as verdadeiras ameaças vêm de redes #criminosas, ataques #cibernéticos e crises #climáticas. Estamos armados para ontem. theconversation.com/politica-nac...

Política Nacional de Defesa: Brasil atualizou sua doutrina de segurança, mas está resolvendo o problema errado

Brasília passou 2024 e 2025 renovando sua doutrina de segurança nacional. O resultado foi uma capa do século XXI para um livro do século XX — e um plano mal adaptado às ameaças que se aproximam do paí...

theconversation.com

A corrida por #IA não é sobre chips — é sobre poder. Quem controla energia, minerais, data centers e regras globais controla o jogo. Mas a pressa por #AGI acelera riscos. Quando velocidade vence cautela, a conta chega. #ConversationBrasil theconversation.com/analise-como...

Análise: como a Inteligência Artificial está mudando o equilíbrio global de poder

A IA já está remodelando a ordem global por meio das cadeias internacionais de suprimentos, da política industrial, dos mercados de trabalho, do planejamento energético e do espaço informacional

theconversation.com

#Climate & #nature loss aren’t just environmental issues — they’re defining #security risks of the 21st century. They fuel #food and #energy shocks, drive #migration, and intensify conflict over #water and #land. We’re still underpricing the danger. #Mongabay news.mongabay.com/2026/02/tipp...

A #IA militar está remodelando os campos de batalha, de #Gaza à #Ucrânia. Ela já está integrada a sistemas de apoio à decisão e está borrando os limites da responsabilidade humana. Falei hoje à noite com a #Globonews sobre por que isso importa. youtube.com/watch?v=O2c4...

IA e corrida armamentista digital

YouTube video by globonews

youtube.com

#Haiti isn’t just facing a monumental crime wave. It’s experiencing criminal governance. Gang coalitions control territory, tax residents, run markets, and fill the vacuum left by a stalled political transition with no elected leaders. americasquarterly.org/article/hait...

Haiti’s Political Crisis Deepens Amid a Slide Into Criminal Governance

Confrontation on the Transitional Presidential Council is not only about leadership, but about whether a future transition can reduce the influence of armed groups.

americasquarterly.org

#EU-#Mercosur deal finally signed. We’ll be seeing many more FTAs as the rest of the world seeks to derisk from the U.S. www.reuters.com/world/americ...

EU states back record South America trade deal after 25 years

EU states gave a provisional go-ahead on Friday for the bloc to sign its largest ever free trade accord with South American group Mercosur, more than 25 years since talks began and after months of wra...

reuters.com