Valentin Kreilinger

@vkreilinger.bsky.social

Senior Researcher in Political Science, specialising in EU Politics and Institutions, at the Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies (SIEPS). 15+ years in Research and Policy Advice: kreilinger.eu

All eyes now on Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Germany's Baltic Sea coast and its hinterland), where a popular SPD incumbent, Manuela Schwesig, is running as a bulwark against the AfD in the state election on September 20. "Die Frau gegen blau" = "The woman against blue [AfD]"

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What strikes me most about several of these graphs is how successful the AfD has become in portraying it as the party of change, that gained mostly from mobilising non-voters and is regarded as more 'competent' on most issues by a majority of voters.

Valentin Kreilinger@vkreilinger.bsky.social · 2w ago

After the shock: 23 figures 📊 on the Saxony-Anhalt result and voting behaviour from ZDF / Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and ARD / Infratest dimap👇 1/9

Saxony-Anhalt 😱 The political centre reaches 35.4% (CDU+SPD+Greens), 37.7% incl. FDP. AfD (44.5%, +23.6) is very close to a majority of seats, doubles its result while the CDU vote share is cut in half (18.2%, -18,9). In 2018 Friedrich Merz promised that he would cut the AfD vote share in half.

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For a new volume edited by @vkreilinger.bsky.social and @gvonsydow.bsky.social, they asked 'who calls the shots' on European defence. My contribution digs into why the answer is still the Council and how the member states retain the intergovernmental prerogative:

Valentin Kreilinger@vkreilinger.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨 In the EU, defence policy has moved to the top of the political agenda. But who calls the shots? This is what @gvonsydow.bsky.social and I were asking. We are absolutely pleased that four experts, including @nvondarza.bsky.social, have joined this endeavour: A small booklet on European defence 1/3

Not a good look for the credibility of the EU. Additionally, conclusions on Ukraine at 26 without Hungary have been the norm for a while. This is the second time after December 2025 that Slovakia also did not sign the Ukraine conclusions, emphasizing the structural rift of now an EU-25 vs 2.

Jorge Liboreiro@jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 6mo ago

EU leaders have adopted joint #EUCO conclusions on Ukraine without Hungary and Slovakia. This means the vetoes on the €90 billion loan for Ukraine and the 20th package of sanctions against Russia remain firmly in place.